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Australian dollar slip sliding away

May 16, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

DXY is taking a breather. That could not help the AUD. No lead boots. Gold up. Metals down. Big miners still look fugly. EM stocks hit resistance. Junk says no problemo. Yields eased. Stocks mixed. TS Lombard sounds about right today. The US-China truce removes major USD downside risk. The significant de-escalation in trade tensions

Australia’s never-ending household recession

May 16, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

Australian households are experiencing their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts released in March showed that real per capita home consumption declined for the eighth consecutive quarter. A sharp dip in household incomes is driving the decline in consumption. As shown below, as of Q4 2024, real per capita household consumption had fallen

Albo’s “progessive patriotism” to poverty and conflict

May 16, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

It’s a new and improved Albo with the same old message. “We had progressive patriotism,” Albanese said of the Labor campaign message. “We spoke about doing things the Australian way, not looking towards any other method or ideology from overseas. “At a time where there’s conflict in the world, where people are often divided on

Hopes fade for deep interest rate cuts

May 15, 2025 - 14:07 -- Admin

Alex Joiner from IFM Investors has published the following chart showing the sharp reversal of interest rate pricing in the futures market. After President Donald Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs last month, the futures market had forecast five more interest rate cuts this year and a cash rate of around 2.85% by the end

Economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation

May 15, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong at CBA have written an excellent report explaining the economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation. Key Points: The 90 day reduction in tariffs on US-China trade confirms ‘peak tariff’ is past. We estimate the US effective tariff rate on imports from China is now 41%, down from 155%.

Aussie unemployment hits RBA target

May 15, 2025 - 13:13 -- Admin

After Australia’s Q1 wage growth result was in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) forecasts, the April labour force report produced an unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations: As summarised by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors below, the result was stronger than the headline suggests. While the unemployment rate was steady at

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