DXY is taking a breather. That could not help the AUD. No lead boots. Gold up. Metals down. Big miners still look fugly. EM stocks hit resistance. Junk says no problemo. Yields eased. Stocks mixed. TS Lombard sounds about right today. The US-China truce removes major USD downside risk. The significant de-escalation in trade tensions
Australian households are experiencing their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts released in March showed that real per capita home consumption declined for the eighth consecutive quarter. A sharp dip in household incomes is driving the decline in consumption. As shown below, as of Q4 2024, real per capita household consumption had fallen
It’s a new and improved Albo with the same old message. “We had progressive patriotism,” Albanese said of the Labor campaign message. “We spoke about doing things the Australian way, not looking towards any other method or ideology from overseas. “At a time where there’s conflict in the world, where people are often divided on
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported that the total value of Australia’s housing stock was $11.3 trillion as of April 30, 2025, with the average home worth exactly $1 million. New research from Cotality shows that a record 34.4% of homes across the nation were valued above $1 million in April, with 41.6% of capital city homes
The Q4 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that households had suffered the largest decline in real per capita household disposable incomes on record, down around 8% from the mid-2022 peak. New data from the OECD shows that Australia also recorded the largest decline in real per capita household disposable
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100
The post Macro Afternoon: 15 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Alex Joiner from IFM Investors has published the following chart showing the sharp reversal of interest rate pricing in the futures market. After President Donald Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs last month, the futures market had forecast five more interest rate cuts this year and a cash rate of around 2.85% by the end
Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong at CBA have written an excellent report explaining the economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation. Key Points: The 90 day reduction in tariffs on US-China trade confirms ‘peak tariff’ is past. We estimate the US effective tariff rate on imports from China is now 41%, down from 155%.
After Australia’s Q1 wage growth result was in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) forecasts, the April labour force report produced an unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations: As summarised by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors below, the result was stronger than the headline suggests. While the unemployment rate was steady at
Unlike some economists, I believe that tariffs can be a useful tool in protecting strategic industries to keep alive certain capacities that are essential to the freestanding nature of any self-sustaining society. I could even live with something like a universal tariff, such as Trump’s 10%, though I would make it lower so it could