It was going so well, and then thump! Westpac mulls what happened. Consumers appear to have been rattled by recent updates on inflation. ‘Partial’ measures released over the last month suggest annual inflation has lifted back towards the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. This news, and signs of firmer consumer demand and a
The federal government has effectively provided Victoria with a financial bailout by delivering the state around $7.5 billion in extra GST revenue over two years, meaning it will receive $1.07 for every dollar raised in 2025-26. Victoria’s GST ‘bailout’ has come at the expense of New South Wales, which has received a diminishing share of
The ferrous complex popped at the end of Golden Week yesterday. Pretty typical stuff. The steel profitability gap remains wide. We know a shakeout is coming for iron ore. The question is how deep it will need to be. Morgan Stanley has a crack at it. Downside risks to our long-term price target could emerge
Australia’s ‘miracle’ jobs market has been a fool’s paradise. The unprecedented boom in government-funded jobs has driven Australia’s job growth and historically low unemployment rate. The non-market sector, comprising public and private service providers that rely on government funding, accounted for around 60% of total job creation since the pandemic and nearly 80% of job
The greenback is ripping. AUD is rolling over. CNY stalled. This is not good for gold. Or the silly AI metals rush. Which is feeding RIO. EM is also a DXY downplay. Junk is cracking lower. Which is odd given yields. Bubble paused. There’s no obvious reason for the sudden volatility, except that there is
The 2025 federal election campaign saw both sides admit that they wanted to see Australian home prices rise at a ‘sustainable rate’ from already record-high levels. Both Labor and the Coalition offered ‘affordability’ policies that were really aimed at pumping homebuyer demand and increasing prices. It was a theme that has been repeated throughout this
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Vids
The post Macro Afternoon: 9 October 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Statistics New Zealand’s latest migration data showed that only 13,066 net overseas migrants landed in the country in the year to July 2025. This inflow was well below the decade average of 49,000 and more than 120,000 lower than the late 2023 peak. The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro shows that the
I have just returned from a rock-n-roll thunder tour of the world that took in Tokyo, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Rome. I have not visited any of these cities in forty years, so the changes were amazing. First, what had not changed. Everybody smokes, everywhere, thank god. Tokyo has barely changed as an experience, except
With the release of the latest data from Statistics Canada, it was revealed that Canada’s fertility rate had fallen to just 1.25 children per woman. To put this into perspective, it’s lower than Japan’s fertility rate of 1.30 children per woman recorded during the height of lockdown during the pandemic in 2021. According to commentary