Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from John Quiggin

Keeping one day ahead of the curve

April 10, 2020 - 17:09 -- Admin

As soon as the government released its modelling of the pandemic a few days ago, I realised something was badly wrong. The modelling showed infections increasing even under lockdowns, which obviously wasn’t happening. The crucial parameter here is R, the number of new infections generated by each existing infection. If R is greater than 1, the number of infections grows exponentially, but if R is less than one, it declines, eventually approaching zero.

Monday Message Board

April 6, 2020 - 08:49 -- Admin

Back again with another Monday Message Board.

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