As soon as the government released its modelling of the pandemic a few days ago, I realised something was badly wrong. The modelling showed infections increasing even under lockdowns, which obviously wasn’t happening. The crucial parameter here is R, the number of new infections generated by each existing infection. If R is greater than 1, the number of infections grows exponentially, but if R is less than one, it declines, eventually approaching zero.
Articles from John Quiggin
As part of my response to the pandemic, I’m looking at the way the undead ideas I attempted to kill off in my Zombie Economics have failed yet again. I;m doing it as a series in Independent Australia. The second instalment, Pandemic highlights problems with efficient-market hypothesis has just run.
The government is undertaking a review of one of our central pieces of environmental law, the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Protection Act.
Here are some comments I’ve written in a rapid response to Brendan Murphy’s recent press conference. (I haven’t yet seen even the summary of the modelling that has apparently been released, just a picture of flattened curves.)
Back again with another Monday Message Board.
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link
I got a message from a student asking about examples of renationalisation in Australia. Here’s my response
There hasn’t been much explicit renationalisation of business enterprises in Australia. What we have seen is
I was asked by a journalist about the long-term fiscal effects of the government response to the crisis. Here’s what I said