Articles from MacroBusiness

Australian Treasury sounds the property alarm

By Leith van Onselen After spending years telling us that Australian housing was not a bubble and Australia’s world-beating housing debt was “not a situation for concern”, Australian Treasury officials have warned the Morrison Government that Australia’s household debt will become unmanageable if unemployment rises. From The AFR: “A large increase in unemployment would quickly see

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ATO: SMSF mortgages a ticking time bomb

By Leith van Onselen The Howard Government’s decision to allow self-managed super funds (SMSFs) to leverage into property and other investments was a mistake. Specifically, it allowed SMSFs to be turned into speculative vehicles rather than savings vehicles, in turn dramatically increasing the riskiness of Australia’s retirement savings and financial system, further inflating Australian house

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Roy Morgan unemployment 9.7% as jobs growth fades

By Leith van Onselen The latest Roy Morgan Research (RMR) unemployment estimate for December rose 0.2% to 9.7% but fell 0.1% over the year: Below are the key points from the release: Australian unemployment of 9.7% (down 0.1%) and under-employment of 8.8% (down 0.8%) are both down on a year ago driving a 0.9% fall

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With productivity decelerating, China’s economic miracle is over

CBA Senior Currency Strategist, Joseph Capurso, has produced a new research report arguing that “China’s economic miracle is over” owing to slowing productivity growth and demographic headwinds. This will drag China’s growth down “from around 6% currently to around 4% by 2030”: According to Capurso, despite the slower growth, China may still escape the so-called

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Links 21 January 2019

Macro & Markets The world favors immigration and working with other countries, WEF report claims – CNBC…a WEF report would… Why the Quants Aren’t Adding Up – Bloomberg China offers 6-year plan to boost US imports and erase imbalance – Nikkei Asian Review ‘Bear Market’ Is an Arbitrary Label, but Using It Can Hurt

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Weekend Links 19-20 January, 2019

Short man with two dogs, Linda Marrinon, 1990, Art Gallery of NSW Americas Trump Pulls U.S. Delegation Out of Davos Forum, Citing Shutdown – Bloomberg Shutdown clouds outlook for consumer-driven U.S. economic growth – Reuters Chinese ambassador Lu Shaye warns ‘back-stabbing’ Canada to stop rallying allies in row over detainees – SCMP Trump Vows

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Macro Afternoon

Asian shares finish the week with a flourish, with green results across the board as optimism grows over a potential positive outcome to the trade talks between the US and China. USD remains firm against the Asian major pairs with both the Aussie and Kiwi retreating while gold also fell a few dollars per ounce.

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Global clean energy investment falls in 2018

by Chris Becker While the headline looks bad at first glance, there’s still a lot of good news for renewable energy investors and energy consumers with the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual report out this week. Global clean energy investment totaled $332.1 billion in 2018, down 8% on 2017; last year was the fifth in

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Shorten doubles down on negative gearing reform

Great to see from Australia’s next Prime Minister: The federal government’s campaign against Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing tax break is aimed at distracting Australians from its own shortcomings, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says. Mr Shorten says the government is trying to hide that the economy is not working in the interests of

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ATO report gives weight to Labor’s trust crackdown

By Leith van Onselen In 2017, Labor leader Bill Shorten outlined a plan to tax trusts at 30% that would raise $17.2 billion over 10 years. Shorten said the extra revenue could be used to fund services such as education and health, while he stressed that the 30% tax plan would not be applied to

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