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Articles from Poll Bludger

New South Wales election live

March 28, 2015 - 18:02 -- Admin

11.31pm. The NSWEC announces counting has completed for the night. So there doesn’t seem to be much uncertainty left, apart from the narrowness of Labor’s leads in Gosford (0.6%), The Entrance (0.9%) and Strathfield at a pinch (1.3%), and maybe whether Liberal preferences flow heavily enough to the independent in Wollongong to endanger Noreen Hay.

BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

March 26, 2015 - 05:40 -- Admin

Another week in which the BludgerTrack aggregate has essentially shrugged its shoulders in response to a headline-grabbing opinion poll surprise, in this case the narrow 51-49 lead recorded for Labor by Newspoll. With Roy Morgan and Essential Research both going fairly solidly the other way, the Coalition records a gain of only 0.3% on two-party preferred, yielding a dividend of one seat in Western Australia on the seat projection.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

March 23, 2015 - 22:47 -- Admin

The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago.

Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW

March 22, 2015 - 18:42 -- Admin

The Fairfax papers have a new Ipsos poll for New South Wales, and while the headline two-party result of 54-46 is well in line with other pollsters, it’s based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that goes remarkably heavily to Labor. The Coalition lead on the primary vote is a highly pronounced 47% to 32%, with the Greens at an uncommonly high 13%. Based on 2011 election preferences, the Coalition lead blows out to 58-42.

Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW; ReachTEL: Labor leads in Ballina, Newtown and Strathfield

March 22, 2015 - 01:08 -- Admin

The Sunday Telegraph has a Galaxy poll giving the Coalition a 54-46 lead, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Further questions find 42% saying electricity privatisation makes them less likely to vote for the Coalition with only 13% going the other way.