The recount of the primary vote and the indicative two-party count has now been completed with the latter showing Labor 37 votes ahead, after adjustments to nine polling booths cut Labor back by 34 votes while reducing the LNP by one vote; the pre-poll count added four for the LNP and reduced Labor by three; and two was added to Labor’s total on postals.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady).
Essential Research has released results of polling on state voting intention compiled from its polling conducted from April through to June:
New South Wales: the Coalition leads 52-48, down from 56-44 the previous quarter, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (down three), Labor 37% (up three) and Greens 9% (down one). Sample: 3769.
I normally type up results from EMRS’s quarterly polls of Tasmanian state voting intention in a half-conscious state, but coming after the Liberal rout at the federal election three weeks ago, these results are particularly interesting. The poll has the Liberals down four points to 37%, which is their third successive drop from a peak of 48% last November.
Monday night. A spectacular day at the office for Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, who now leads by 73 votes after gaining 39 votes, while LNP member Ewen Jones lost 36. Furthermore, it has been reported that the AEC expects the count to be finalised tomorrow (Tuesday), so there presumably isn’t much prospect of that being chased down.
The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:
Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
8.45pm. Postals put the LNP back on course, with Janetzki getting 1442 and Thorley on 823 out of 2615 counted. His primary vote is now 46.2%, which will presumably head upwards on late counting. Thorley would need 80% of preferences on the current numbers, and since Janetzki’s primary vote is likely to improve further as more postals come in, he appears likely to get over the line.