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Articles from Poll Bludger

Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

May 30, 2016 - 06:18 -- Admin

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”.

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

May 27, 2016 - 19:04 -- Admin

Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite.

BludgerTrack: 50-50

May 25, 2016 - 06:05 -- Admin

The addition of Newspoll and yesterday’s Essential Research result to BludgerTrack leave nothing between the two parties to the first decimal place. Observers of BludgerTrack’s form will know that actually translates into a small Coalition majority on the seat projection, which has the Coalition up one on the seat projection in New South Wales and down one in Queensland. I haven’t updated it with Newspoll’s leadership ratings yet, but will get around to doing so tomorrow.

Simulating the Senate

May 24, 2016 - 06:29 -- Admin

One of the factors that was overlooked in the recent debate over Senate electoral reform was the hours of enjoyment election watchers used to have projecting Senate outcomes, with help from Antony Green’s calculators, thanks to the exquisitely predictable preferences flows that arose from the group voting ticket system. The fact that voters will now be largely making up their own minds means we are headed into unknown territory with the coming election.

BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

May 19, 2016 - 06:16 -- Admin

The flurry of national polling conducted after the budget for release at the onset of the official campaign has been followed this week by a lull in new results at national level, but with Galaxy and ReachTEL making sizeable entries in state-level federal polling from Queensland and Tasmania respectively.