Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from Poll Bludger

BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

June 29, 2016 - 05:08 -- Admin

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL.

Senate of the day: Queensland

June 28, 2016 - 01:38 -- Admin

Today’s stop in the six-part Senate tour is Queensland, for which the political and historical overview can be viewed here. Queensland was extraordinary in 2013 for the level of support for Palmer United, and it is thus notable for being the only state in which BludgerTrack has the “others” vote down from the election, by 5.9%.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

June 26, 2016 - 22:57 -- Admin

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday.

Galaxy: 50-50

June 26, 2016 - 04:12 -- Admin

The Sunday News Corp papers have a national federal poll from Galaxy, although their websites are being a little coy about the fact. The poll shows two-party preferred at 50-50, which is all I can tell you about voting intention at this stage, because I’m not seeing any primary votes, sample sizes or field work dates.

Senate of the day: Victoria

June 26, 2016 - 03:21 -- Admin

Welcome to part two in a hopefully six part series on the Senate contests. My political and recent historical overview of the Senate for Victoria can be found here – in this post, I shall stick to a one-shot attempt to model the result. The basis of the model and its assumptions are mostly as they were in the earlier New South Wales post.