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Articles from Poll Bludger

BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

April 17, 2014 - 02:36 -- Admin

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point.

O’Farrell resigns

April 16, 2014 - 11:23 -- Admin

New South Wales will shortly have its fifth Premier in seven years following the bombshell resignation of Barry O’Farrell, who was today embarrassed by the emergence of a card in which he thanked Australian Water Holdings boss Nick Di Girolamo for a $3000 bottle of wine he yesterday denied having received.

Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

April 13, 2014 - 21:04 -- Admin

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll).

Blain by-election live

April 12, 2014 - 18:32 -- Admin

7.35pm. Now, all in one hit, we’ve got both primary and pre-poll results from all three ordinary polling booths, together with results from the Darwin pre-poll booth. The raw two-party result shows the CLP leading by 3.2%, and my projection is hardly different at 3.7%, a swing to Labor of 9.5%. I have the CLP primary vote down 15.8% on a booth-matched basis, or 45.5% in raw terms, but Labor is up only 3.2% to 37.5% thanks to the 8.3% vote for independent Matthew Cranitch.

BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

April 10, 2014 - 06:07 -- Admin

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged.

Newspoll: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

April 9, 2014 - 00:24 -- Admin

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest quarterly (I think) Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland has the Liberal National Party’s lead down from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the LNP (steady), 36% for Labor (up four) and 8% for the Greens (steady). Campbell Newman is down four on approval to 36% and up six on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is up two to 38% and down one to 30%. On preferred premier, Newman’s lead is down from 45-32 to 41-35.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

April 8, 2014 - 00:13 -- Admin

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow.