The latest bi-monthly Newspoll result for New South Wales state voting intention from The Australian is in line with other recent polling in showing a 54-46 lead for Mike Baird’s Coalition government, down from 57-43 in May-June. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote 40%, Labor is up two to 33% and the Greens are steady on 13%.
Articles from Poll Bludger
A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May.
Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%.
Last week Galaxy had it at 52-48, but now we have Newspoll recording Labor with a much bigger lead on state voting intention in Victoria, at 55-45 on two-party preferred and 37% to 35% on the primary vote, the former figure being juiced up by the Greens’ 16%.
James J relates that a Galaxy Research poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, presumably to appear in tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph, has a surprisingly strong showing for the Baird government in view of its recent travails, with the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred. This compares with 53-47 in the last such poll in May. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 11% for the Greens.
The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday.
The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score.
The by-elections to replace last week’s two ICAC casualties in the New South Wales state parliament will be held on October 25. The Liberals are spectacularly declining to field candidates in seats they currently hold, but the Palmer United Party is promising to provide some entertainment.
Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February.