The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%.
Articles from Poll Bludger
Draft boundaries have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. It proposes abolishing the electorate of Eyre in the south-eastern corner of the state, which is held for the Liberals by Graham Jacobs, who narrowly saw off a challenge from the Nationals at the March 2013 election. Its major centres of Esperance and Boulder are respectively to be absorbed by Wagin and Kalgoorlie.
This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.
The southern Brisbane seat of Rankin holds the distinction of being the only Queensland seat Labor has held without interruption since 1984, when it was created with the expansion of parliament from 125 seats to 148. There have only been three members throughout that time: David Beddall until 1998, Craig Emerson from then until 2013, and Jim Chalmers thereafter.
James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). However, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have slumped again, with approval down one to 27% and disapproval up five to 59%, while Tony Abbott’s are unchanged at 33% and 60%.
This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention.
The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as a constant amid shifting boundaries over the years. Rockhampton currently sits at the electorate’s southern coastal end, from which it extends north to the southern outskirts of Mackay and west through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland.
The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time.
It’s been an interesting week in opinion polling on a number of fronts, with the Galaxy-conducted Newspoll series making its debut in The Australian, and big shifts emerging in the first leadership ratings to have emerged in three weeks. What there hasn’t been is any particular movement in headline two-party preferred numbers, although that’s of interest in its own right given misplaced press gallery expectations that things were about to turn in favour of the Coalition.
Held until the 2013 election by Julia Gillard, Lalor covers safe Labor territory around Werribee in Melbourne’s western suburbs, including Laverton and the rapidly developing Point Cook area at the city end, and lightly populated outskirts as far as Little River to the west. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its current area had been accommodated by Corio.