As I type, Treasurer Scott Morrison is lifting the lid on the 2016/17 budget. Discuss and argue the toss here (or indeed, discuss anything else related to national affairs).
Articles from Poll Bludger
This week’s reading of the Essential Research rolling fortnightly aggregate finds Labor maintaining the 52-48 lead it opened up last week, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (steady), Labor 38% (down one) and Greens 10% (steady).
Family First Senator Bob Day’s legal challenge against reforms to the Senate electoral system reached the full bench of the High Court yesterday, which concluded by adjourning the hearing until tomorrow. Day’s case was advanced before the court by barrister, Peter King, who was the Liberal member for Wentworth before Malcolm Turnbull despatched him in a preselection challenge in 2004.
The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5.
New England is a naturally safe conservative seat in north-eastern New South Wales that nonetheless looms as one of the most interesting contests of the election, as Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce takes on the seat’s former independent member of 12 years, Tony Windsor.
Parramatta has covered a shifting area around the western Sydney centre that bears its name since federation, and is currently held by Labor on a tight margin after successive heavy swings in 2010 and 2013. The electorate long covered Sydney’s broad north-western outskirts, until Sydney’s expansion caused it to become entirely urban in character after the war.
We’re about half-way between the weekly BludgerTrack and when I’m anticipating the next opinion poll, this being the period of pre-budget calm before the storm, and a new thread is wanted. So I’ve decided to hang this one off the latest ANUpoll survey, an exercise conducted by the Australian National University two or three times a year to gauge the public mood on a specific area of public policy, and track the salience of various issues over time.
Richmond has covered the north-eastern corner of New South Wales since federation, and presently encompasses the shires of Tweed in the north, Byron in the centre and the northern part of Ballina in the south. The latest redistribution has redrawn its boundary with Page to add the town of Ballina at the southern coastal end of the electorate, and remove the northern parts of the Shire of Lismore in the interior, including the counter-cultural haven of Nimbin.
Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines two geographically and electorally distinct areas separated by the Blue Mountains National Park: the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor, and the largely Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway in the Blue Mountains, notably Springwood and Katoomba. It has not been affected by the latest redistribution.
The Seven Network has a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Queensland which reflects other polling in showing the two major parties little changed on the primary vote since the election last January, with Labor on 36.9% (compared with 37.5% at the election) and the Liberal National Party on 42.8% (41.3%), but with the Greens gaining a little to record 10.8% (8.4%).