The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a correction after what was probably an Ipsos-driven overshoot last week, with a milder result from Newspoll drawing the Coalition two-party lead back 0.7%, and moving the seat projection two points in favour of Labor, with gains in New South Wales and Victoria.
Articles from Poll Bludger
Bradfield covers Sydney’s northern suburbs from Roseville through Killara, Turramurra and St Ives to Wahroonga, extending from 10 to 25 kilometres to the north-west of central Sydney. The recently published draft redistribution proposes the addition of around 6000 voters in Chatswood and Castle Cove at the southern end of the electorate, formerly in North Sydney, and minor adjustments to the western boundary that transfer around 3500 voters to Berowra.
The latest result from Newspoll, featured in tomorrow’s Australian, records the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 46%, Labor is down one to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 11%.
We now have a result on state voting intention from the Galaxy poll conducted for the Courier-Mail on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it records a substantial shift to the Liberal National Party on voting intention since the last such poll in August. The LNP is up three points to 42% on the primary vote (if I’m reading the chart correctly), with Labor down the same amount to 37% and the Greens off a point to 9%.
Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland, which finds a dramatic reversal since the last such poll, which was conducted on Tony Abbott’s watch in late August. The Coalition is up nine on the primary vote to 50%, with Labor down eight to 29%. A 51-49 lead to Labor on two-party preferred has transformed into a 58-42 to the Coalition.
This week’s big result for the Coalition from Ipsos has had a solid impact on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which shifts a further 0.9% on two-party preferred and four seats on the seat projection, including one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.
Malcolm Turnbull’s electorate of Wentworth encompasses the southern side of the mouth of Sydney Harbour, including the harbour shore from Vaucluse to Potts Point, a stretch of coast running south through Bondi to Clovelly, and the northern part of Randwick.
The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score.
New results from Newspoll and Essential Research have made very little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, which records only minor shifts on every measure of voting intention and no net change in the seat projection, with the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales and down one in Western Australia.