The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The latest quarterly reading of Tasmanian state voting intention from EMRS records a slump in Labor support following its post-election recovery, down five points on the February poll to 29%. This helps make room for gains for both the Liberals, up four to 46%, and the Greens, up four to 19%. Will Hodgman’s lead over Bryan Green as preferred premier has increased from 48-26 to 52-24.
The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively.
The Australian Electoral Commission has published public suggestions for its New South Wales redistribution process, which the redistribution commissioners will now chew on as they prepare a set of draft boundaries.
Two new polls on state voting intention for Queensland, producing somewhat different results:
Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 800 respondents and presumably conducted over the past few days. The primary vote numbers are 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United, compared with respective results at the 2013 election of 45.7%, 29.8%, 6.2% and 11.0%. This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.
Forde covers developing suburban territory at the southern edge of Brisbane, including the Logan City suburbs of Loganlea, Shailer Park and Beenleigh in the north, together with City of Gold Coast territory along the Pacific Motorway from Ormeau south to Upper Coomera.
Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government.
The third and fourth cabs off the rank in the post-budget polling avalanche are Newspoll and Ipsos, and they reverse the situation of four weeks ago in that Newspoll’s numbers are considerably rosier for the government than Ipsos’s. To start with the former:
Galaxy has produced its first federal poll for the News Limited tabloids since the Liberal leadership spill vote in February, and what I guess will be one of its last given it will have the gig of conducting Newspoll for The Australian come the new financial year. The headline two-party figure is 52-48, which in a sense is down from 57-43 last time, but that doesn’t mean all that much given our distance from the starting point.