The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The safe Liberal seat of Forrest covers Western Australia’s south-western corner, taking in Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. The Margaret River region is a focal point of tree-changer and alternative lifestyle sentiment, and votes Greens in greater number than Labor, and Labor more than Coalition on two-party preferred.
The only poll of Malcolm Turnbull’s second week is the regular two-week rolling average from Essential Research. Clearly this week’s sample produced a good result for the Coalition, as Essential published its “one week only” result last week to show a 50-50 debut for the Turnbull government, and adding this week’s result to that one has produced a Coalition lead of 52-48.
The first Newspoll state poll for New South Wales since the Baird government’s re-election in March, and also the first conducted by Galaxy, is a thoroughly unremarkable post-election result, giving the Coalition a lead of 56-44 compared with 54.3-45.7 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 47% (45.6% at the election), Labor 33% (34.1%) and Greens 11% (10.3%).
Five polls conducted since Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership putsch early last week have sung from the same song sheet by recording results of either 50-50 (ReachTEL and Essential Research) or 51-49 in favour of the Coalition (Newspoll and Galaxy), with the exception of a stray result from Morgan, which had it at 53.5-46.5 when using the equivalent two-party measures that assumes preferences flow as they did at the previous election.
The scene of a mid-term by-election held five days after Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership, Canning extends from Perth’s south-eastern outskirts south to coastal Mandurah, the South Western Highway towns of Pinjarra and Waroona, and the gold mining town of Boddington further inland. The draft redistribution proposes the transfer of about a third of its voters to the new electorate of Burt, in an area encompassing the outer suburbs of Armadale, Forrestdale and Kelmscott.
Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not.
Two-party: full preference estimate
ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal)
MATT KEOGH (Labor)
A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention for the News Corp tabloids – the first such poll since May – confirms the impress of ReachTEL in recording a relatively modest bounce to the Coalition, who nonetheless peak their noses in front by 51-49 on two-party preferred.