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Articles from Poll Bludger
Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point.
New South Wales will shortly have its fifth Premier in seven years following the bombshell resignation of Barry O’Farrell, who was today embarrassed by the emergence of a card in which he thanked Australian Water Holdings boss Nick Di Girolamo for a $3000 bottle of wine he yesterday denied having received.
This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:
GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll).
7.35pm. Now, all in one hit, we’ve got both primary and pre-poll results from all three ordinary polling booths, together with results from the Darwin pre-poll booth. The raw two-party result shows the CLP leading by 3.2%, and my projection is hardly different at 3.7%, a swing to Labor of 9.5%. I have the CLP primary vote down 15.8% on a booth-matched basis, or 45.5% in raw terms, but Labor is up only 3.2% to 37.5% thanks to the 8.3% vote for independent Matthew Cranitch.
New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest quarterly (I think) Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland has the Liberal National Party’s lead down from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the LNP (steady), 36% for Labor (up four) and 8% for the Greens (steady). Campbell Newman is down four on approval to 36% and up six on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is up two to 38% and down one to 30%. On preferred premier, Newman’s lead is down from 45-32 to 41-35.
UPDATE (Friday 11/4): The Northern Territory News has published a poll from a small sample of 200 voters, which going on past form I presume to have been conducted in-house with help from the Adelaide Advertiser.
GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow.