This post will be progressively updated to follow the late counting for the Queensland election over the coming days. There was a fair bit of counting done yesterday in key seats, mostly consisting of the first batches of postals and out-of-electorate pre-polls. In my post yesterday I identified six seats that I wasn’t ready to call, but one of those, Redlands, was put beyond doubt by the counting of pre-polls, which broke 3757-3153 the way of the LNP to blow the lead out to 974.
Articles from Poll Bludger
I’m going to progressively add a region-by-region post mortem to this thread as I go, so be sure to hit “refresh” every now and then if you’re hovering around the site and you think that might of use to you (UPDATE: Scratch that – I’ll do it tomorrow). I’ll start by answering a question that will be on the lips of many: how did the polls (and by implication the poll aggregators – see the sidebar) get it so wrong?
On top of everything else, the News Limited tabloids offer a lethal Galaxy poll for Tony Abbott, showing Labor leading by 57-43 on two-party preferred and 43% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 3%.
10.09pm. All seats on my watch list have three booths outstanding, so maybe that represents consistent blank spaces for things that won’t be counted tonight.
10.04pm. Another booth in from Whitsunday and the LNP moves into the lead (bearing in mind that I’m talking about the booth-matched computer projection here, not the raw result), going from Labor 0.3% ahead to LNP 0.1% ahead.
The last three statewide polls of the Queensland election campaign have spoken with marvellous unanimity, and they are joined by an Ashgrove poll from Galaxy that emphatically confirms the impression to emerge from ReachTEL on Tuesday that Campbell Newman is headed for defeat at the hands of Labor’s Kate Jones. First the state polls:
Just a few things to run by you, pending a more complete review of the situation tomorrow, together with late polling of which there will presumably be a good deal.
A South Australian state by-election will be held tomorrow in the electorate of Davenport, to be vacated by Liberal veteran Iain Evans. I would love to be able to tell you more about it, but you know how it is. My review of the electorate from before last year’s election can be read here. Here is a thread for those wishing to discuss the matter.
The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL offers what is perhaps a note of insight into the tone of panic that has been emerging lately from the Campbell Newman campaign, with no sign of the late-campaign surge that powered him to victory in Ashgrove in 2012.
The latest result of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is back at 54-46, after moving a point to the Coalition last week. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 41%, the Coalition is down one to 39%, and the Greens are down one to 9%.