The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday.
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The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score.
The by-elections to replace last week’s two ICAC casualties in the New South Wales state parliament will be held on October 25. The Liberals are spectacularly declining to field candidates in seats they currently hold, but the Palmer United Party is promising to provide some entertainment.
Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February.
Steven Murray on Twitter relates that a Galaxy poll to be published in tomorrow’s Courier-Mail has Queensland’s Liberal National Party state government holding on to a 52-48 lead over Labor, down from 55-45 at the last such poll in May. The primary votes are 39% for the LNP, 36% for Labor, 12% for the Palmer United Party and zip for Katter’s Australian Party (UPDATE: Sorry, make that 3%)), with no result provided as of yet for the Greens (UPDATE: Make that 7%).
Stephen Murray relates on Twitter that a Galaxy poll of Victorian state voting intention in tomorrow’s Herald-Sun has Labor leading 52-48 with a little more than three months to go until the election, from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 40% for the Coalition, 12% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United. Denis Napthine maintains a 41-33 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier, and is ahead 39-38 on the question of who would best protect Victorian jobs.
Located in the Darling Downs region of Queensland, Groom is dominated by the city of Toowoomba about 100 kilometres west of Brisbane, which accounts for slightly less than 80% of its population. Toowoomba is near the electorate’s eastern boundary, from which it extends westwards to Jondaryan and Pittsworth and northwards to Goombungee, along with sparsely populared rural areas further afield.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research.
Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it.
Jenny Macklin’s electorate of Jagajaga was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, and covers suburbs in north-eastern Melbourne from Heidelberg and Ivanhoe out to North Warrandyte in the east.