The latest quarterly reading of state voting intention in Western Australia from Newspoll, and the last that will emerge from the existing Newspoll organisation, shows Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead on two-party preferred. However, they are down two points on the primary vote to 33% while the Liberals and Nationals remain steady on 40%, with the Greens also steady on 14%.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high.
There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so.
ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907.
The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack.
Covering the central Queensland coast from Mackay north through Bowen and Ayr and the Whitsunday Islands to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride in recent times, having been gained by Labor at the 2007 election with a 13.2% swing, lost in 2010 after a 5.0% reversal, and consolidated for the Liberal National Party with a 5.1% swing in 2013. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its current territory had been accommodated by the seat of Herbert.
Ahead of tonight’s finale, one last thread for discussion of ABC Television’s The Killing Season, and the disintegration of the previous government more generally.
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:
For those who may have forgotten what a honeymoon poll looks like, The Australian reports that the Andrews government has opened its Newspoll account with a two-party preferred lead of 58-42, in a result aggregated from polling of 1154 respondents throughout May and June. This compares with an election result of 52.0-48.0.
It’s been a big week for federal opinion polling, with Ipsos adding its voice to the regular fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and the weekly Essential Research. The results are sharply polarised, with Ipsos and Morgan coming in weak for the government and Newspoll and Essential being fairly strong. The BludgerTrack aggregate reads this a slight move to Labor, which consolidates a shift in their favour last week.