9.34pm. Since the Labor-versus-Greens results yet to be reported are barely even of academic interest (Labor currently leads 64-36), I’ll more or less wrap it up here, although I’ll have another look at the numbers later tonight given that we should get some pre-polls and postals.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The Seven Network reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted yesterday has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 a month ago. More details to follow (although it may take a while).
The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor this week following moves away from the Coalition in both Newspoll and Essential Research – although not Roy Morgan, which was little changed on what for it was an unusually strong result for the Coalition a fortnight ago. Newspoll in particular was a surprise packet, but it should be noted that Labor once again appeared to get the better of rounding on its two-party result.
A tale of four pollsters:
The only new poll this week was from Essential Research, and it recorded next to no change from its established pattern, which means next to no change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. What change there is has caused Labor recover the slightest possible lead on the two-party preferred aggregate, but the seat total and its distribution between the states is entirely unchanged on last week.
Western Australia’s Vasse by-election will be held on Saturday, to choose a replacement for troubled former Treasurer Troy Buswell. In the absence of a Labor candidate, the by-election looms as a contest between the Liberals and Nationals in which the Liberals start short-priced favourites, having outpolled the Nationals 57.3% to 7.3% at the March 2013 state election.