The RBA has been strong on the idea that a rebound in services wage growth is behind the recent bounce in headline inflation. It argues that without productivity, wage inflation must be pushing up prices in these areas. Yesterday’s Wage Price Index was unsupportive of the argument. The WPI was, as expected, stable at 3.4%.
Labor has missed so many opportunities to rid the nation of this economic millstone that I have no faith it is about to do so. Yet the gas cartel is weak, leaderless, and divided. Top gas executives will gather in Perth this week in a last-ditch attempt to shape the Albanese government’s overhaul of the
Wall Street managed to escape a selloff overnight with the release of not so quite dovish FOMC minutes, but then the wobbles came through bond and currency markets as the Trump regime announced they weren’t releasing the October jobs print while the November print won’t be after the December Fed meeting. The USD went on
Since the start of 2025, the Australian labour market has been on a rollercoaster. It has produced month-on-month results that any government would gladly take credit for, such as the October print, and it has produced results that policymakers would rather forget, such as the 52,800 jobs lost in the February release. But cutting through
I explained this week how the Albanese government has taken specific actions to bolster the flow of international students into Australia. These actions come as the number of international students and graduates in Australia is tracking at a historically high 3.2% of the nation’s population as at Q3 2025, up from the pre-pandemic peak of
Stocks across Asia had mixed sessions today with domestic pressures overriding the bigger macro picture with tensions between China and Japan still boiling over. Most undollars fell back during the session, especially the Kiwi on the poor PPI print while the Australian dollar lost its gains from overnight on the wages data while Bitcoin briefly
I have argued repeatedly that rising unemployment is the key condition that must be met for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver another interest rate cut. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the RBA forecasts that the headline unemployment rate will remain
In the first poll after his inauguration, from YouGov, U.S. President Trump held a surprisingly strong level of net approval among Americans aged 18 to 29. Of all the age demographics assessed, 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 64 and 65+, Trump held his second-highest net approval rating in the 18 to 29
The great Chinese property crash is, once again, worsening. It’s another banner year for lost hope. Sentiment disappears. Far-flung cities are the most troubled. Completions are going the way of all flesh. The Chinese consumer is deleveraging. Talk of rebalancing towards consumption at this point is a joke.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the wage price index for the September quarter of 2025, which reported a quarterly increase of 0.8% and an annual increase of 3.4%: The outcome aligned with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) and market expectations, posing no significant policy implications. The following chart shows that public