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Articles from MacroBusiness

Australia’s endless skills shortage ‘whack-a-mole’

November 14, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Australia’s population grew by an extraordinary 8.5 million (45%) over the first 25 years of this century, far exceeding the population growth of other advanced nations. Over the four years from Q1 2021 to Q1 2025, Australia’s population grew by an estraordinary 1.88 million (7.9%)—equivalent to adding an Adelaide and Hobart to the nation’s population.

Aussie unemployment is still rising

November 14, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

Amid the frenzy of economists calling rate holds and hikes, Westpac is making the most sense today. The bank argues that after a poorer performance in September, employment was stronger than anticipated in October, resulting in growth on a three-month average that was about ½ppt slower than it was six months prior. Moreover, the unemployment

Things fall apart

November 14, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

The Market Ear on when things fall apart. Lower high SPX may be carving out a lower high, not a bullish look. 6800 is the key short-term support in futures; lose that and you’re into the channel lows and 50-day near 6750, with the big 6700 zone right below. Source: LSEG Workspace Momentum loss NASDAQ

Chinese credit hits the skids

November 14, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

In October, Chinese banks made 220bn yuan in new loans, a sharp decline from 1.29 trillion yuan in September. Compared to a year ago, the flow of loans increased 6.5%, a record low. Under the hood, corporate loans fell to 350bn yuan from 1.22 trillion yuan, while household loans, including mortgages, shrank by 360bn yuan

So, you still think international education is a major export?

November 14, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that international education is Australia’s fourth-largest export, earning the country $51 billion in 2024. The ABS generates this fantasy “export” figure by summing student visa holders’ spending on tuition fees and goods and services. In 2024-25, the ABS estimated that student visa holders spent $30.2 billion on goods

Coalition hands Albo permanent power

November 14, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

The Coalition has committed Australia to a one-party state. The Prime Minister said the divisions in the Liberal partyroom were “a sign for the Australian people of … the clown show they’ve become”. The Nationals-inspired Liberal manifesto includes support for a “technology-neutral” Capacity Investment Scheme – rebadging it the Affordable Energy Scheme – providing taxpayer underwriting for

Macro Morning

November 14, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

Wall Street had a very rough session overnight as the AI bubble seemed to show signs of instability with domestic economic concerns following the US government shutdown. Tech stocks led the selloff but it extended across all risk markets although currency markets remained largely on their individual trends as the Australian dollar pulled back after

The energy transition is failing

November 14, 2025 - 08:00 -- Admin

Irina Slav from OilPrice.com summarised Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025-26 as follows: Global demand for crude oil is projected to continue increasing until at least 2032, indicating that the world is significantly off track in meeting its Paris Agreement goals. Despite trillions of dollars invested in the energy transition, fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural

Australia’s other housing shortage

November 14, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Australia’s structural housing shortage is well-documented, with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver estimating that the nation was short at least 200,000 homes in 2024: Former senior immigration department bureaucrat Abul Rizvi believes that Australia’s net overseas migration will average around 300,000 annually under current policy settings, which is around 15% higher than Treasury forecasts. If

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