DXY is the canary in the coalmine. AUD couldn’t ride it. CNY meh. Gold and oil held gains. AI metals faded. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk is only OK. Yields meh. Stocks meh. There is mounting evidence that the US jobs market has stalled out. ADP for October was out overnight weak. It does correlate
Risk markets continue to price in some stability returning to US governance – ha! – but then Wall Street stumbled towards the close, unable to build on its big rebound at the start of the week. The USD was relatively stable against the majors although Euro was able to temporarily push above the 1.16 handle,
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is slightly lower than the current unemployment rate of 4.5%: Therefore, the RBA
The Great Australian Housing Bubble hit a new milestone in October, reaching an all-time high valuation of $12.0 trillion, according to Cotality. “This unprecedented value is more than double the market’s size a decade ago, with the majority of the growth occurring over the past five years”, Cotality Economist Kaytlin Ezzy said. “Interestingly, the composition
Not quite a green a day as expected here in Asia with only some markets moving higher in the wake of the news that the Republican shutdown of the US government may finally be coming to an end. While gold continued to push higher, other undollars like the Kiwi and Australian dollar have steadied with
Westpac says boom.. Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surges 12.8% to 103.8. First positive read since early 2022 and a seven-year high (excl. COVID period). Expectations improve as domestic recovery firms, trade risks subside. Strong gain is despite a less confident outlook for interest rates and jobs. ‘Mortgage belt’ is a notable exception, sentiment dipping
Stats New Zealand’s most recent migration figures revealed that only 10,628 net migrants arrived in the country in the year ending August 2025, substantially below the decade average of 49,000 and around 120,000 fewer than the late 2023 peak. Part of the decline in New Zealand’s net migration is attributable to large numbers of Kiwis
The Market Ear on improving gold technicals. Gold moving again Gold found support on the big $3900 level, and was close to the 50 day. The shiny metal is putting in the biggest up candle (as of writing) since the sell off began. We are well above the $4000 area. Next bigger resistance at $4200
The fake left meltdown continues today. The fake left Guardian is busy defending fake left media coverage. “Anyone who thinks this is about a 12-second clip on a Panorama more than a year ago that not a single viewer complained about is not reading the proper story,” said one. “What’s going on here is much
In January 2003, the day before the Canberra bushfires struck, I left Melbourne with my now-wife to commence working as a graduate economist at the Australian Treasury. I was inducted by then-Secretary Ken Henry and his deputies, who taught us about the Treasury’s long tradition of providing “frank and fearless” advice to the federal government