We have warned repeatedly that the state of Victoria is on the path to financial ruin. Victoria has the highest per capita debt in the nation and the lowest credit rating. The Victorian Auditor‑General cautioned last month that debt, deficits, and infrastructure blowouts pose serious long‑term risks to the state’s financial sustainability. Victoria’s liabilities now
Overnight saw what could be the beginnings of a risk off mood as Wall Street was unable to get moving after the weekend, helped along by a dumping of crypto as Bitcoin made new lows. All eyes are still on the Fed’s December meeting where a rate cut is a given, but overnight saw some
Just when you think it’s safe to dip back into forex markets, the Japanese bond shock returns. At least this time, it is yields, not currency. Helped by the dovish Fed. AUD can’t rise while Japan threatens bond meltdown. CNY remains supportive. Gold senses something is amiss. Metals mania continues. Miners firmed. EM is stalled.
The Albanese government has already ignited the housing market with its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers. Now housing minister Clare O’Neil is busy spruiking Labor’s Help to Buy shared equity scheme, which launches on 5 December 2025 and is designed to make home ownership more accessible by allowing eligible buyers to purchase a
As a new trading month gets underway Asian equity markets are quite mixed across the region as Japanese inflation and Chinese manufacturing contraction concerns overshadow the potential invasion of Venezuela by the Trump regime. The USD is falling and gold rising among other undollars with chances of a cut by the Fed at its upcoming
The weather vane of financial market interest rate forecasts has swung hawkish following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation prints. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, financial markets are now pricing a potential 25 bp hike in the cash rate in 2026: The Melbourne Institute’s trimmed mean inflation gauge, which rose solidly again in November,
It was MB that led APRA to adopt macroprudential tools designed to lean against the cycle and aid monetary policy. Alas, like everything else in the Australian political economy these days, APRA’s latest round of macroprudential tightening is purely performative, or fake, achieving the opposite. Back in the 2015 lending bubble, MB forced AHPRA to
The Market Ear kicks us off. Welcome weekend CTAs swing wildly, risk appetite collapses, tech suffers its largest outflows in 4 years, and AI finally shows up in real earnings. Here are the 10 charts we’re watching this weekend — from market panic to full-stack AI dominance. 1 – CTAs What is the next CTA
Statistics New Zealand released its filled jobs survey on Friday, which revealed that October filled jobs were unchanged. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the October data incorporated downward historical revisions, with the level of employment in September around 0.2% lower. As a result, hiring was a mere 0.1% higher in
China isn’t growing. Just ask the PMIs. Manufacturing. Services. Combined. This economy is pancaked as its property sector implodes. China uses various tricks to exaggerate GDP: focusing on the supply side, failing to write down investments, and underestimating the GDP deflator. All of these overestimate growth that is not there. Now it is going to