At the end of Saturday night I had a list of seven seats which I hadn’t called. I have now done some further analysis with the extra votes that have reported today, and I am now ready to call a couple more seats and provide an analysis of the state of the count.
This morning I spoke to Osmond Chiu about the results of yesterday’s NSW state election.
This is the first of a number of blog posts I’ll be rolling out over today and tomorrow.
I thought I’d start by attempting to map out the swings. This is a difficult task because quite a lot of votes (mostly pre-poll votes) haven’t been counted yet. So for my first set of maps I have used the estimated 2CP swings and 2CP margins in each seat calculated by Antony Green’s ABC model.
6:00 – Polls have just closed across New South Wales. Join me as we cover tonight’s results.
Polls have just opened across New South Wales. This post is just a placeholder and open thread to post comments during the day. I may post a few updates here if there are developments.
You can treat this as an opportunity to post your last-minute election predictions.
There’s a growing consensus that the most likely outcome in tomorrow’s election is a hung parliament. That’s certainly the opinion of the bookmakers.
But what would that hung parliament look like? The hung parliament’s results could vary wildly depending on tomorrow’s results.
New South Wales elections are different to the rest of Australia. In all other federal and state lower house elections featuring single-member electorates, we use compulsory preferential voting (CPV) – you need to number every box for your vote to count.
For NSW state elections, we use optional preferential voting (OPV). You can number multiple boxes if you wish, but a ‘1’ is sufficient.
Ben was joined by social researcher Rebecca Huntley and the Poll Bludger’s William Bowe to talk about the key issues of the state election and the seats which will decide the result.
The Hunter and the Central Coast is a region mostly dominated by Labor, who recovered most of their ground in 2015 after a disastrous election in 2011.
At the 2011 state election, the Liberal Party won all four seats on the Central Coast as well as the typical Labor seats of Swansea, Charlestown, Newcastle and Maitland.
We received a flood of new information about the state election yesterday morning at 8am, when the NSW Electoral Commission published every piece of electoral material registered to be used on election day (mostly how-to-votes).
It’s taken quite some time to open all of the relevant how-to-votes and assemble a dataset (which I will share) which can be used to make broader statements about how parties are preferencing.