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Gas reservation will be the election’s biggest loss

April 29, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

All opinion polls are pointing to an easy Labor victory at this weekend’s federal election. Sadly, a Labor victory will jettison the single best policy proposal of the campaign: the reservation of East Coast gas for domestic use. The Coalition’s policy promised to quarantine uncontracted gas sold on the spot market for domestic consumption. The

Stocks abandoned

April 29, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on abandoned stocks. Climbing the wall of worry S&P 500 up 14% since April’s 7th intraday low – now trading back above 20x PE. Mag-7’s best week in 3 years (+9.4%) . US HF net leverage has bumped a lot from absolute lows (now sits at 49% vs a recent low <40%),

Macro Morning

April 29, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

An uneasy night on Wall Street with minor moves as more earnings reports filter through amid more bluster from the Trump regime about nonexistent Chines tariff negotiations helping push USD lower against most of the majors as Pound Sterling hits a new three year high amid a UK/EU detente on trade. The Canadian Loonie remains

International student “exports” are one big lie

April 29, 2025 - 08:00 -- Admin

Last month, Vicki Thomson, the CEO of the elite Group of Eight (Go8) universities, claimed that international education is the nation’s third-largest export. Amid talk of imposing caps on enrolment numbers, Thomson said, “Do not put our third-largest export sector at risk. A $51 billion economy and, more than that, a sector which actually builds

Australia bet its economy on housing and lost

April 29, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

I noted recently how Australia’s housing obsession has gradually choked the economy. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s housing stock was valued at a record $11,032.2 billion in 2024, with the average home valued at $976,800. According to CoreLogic’s most recent monthly chart pack, Australia’s housing stock was valued at $11.3 trillion as

Market tells RBA to cut fast and deep

April 28, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

On Wednesday, the all-important Q1 CPI will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). CBA expects the policy-relevant trimmed mean CPI to print at 0.6% for the quarter, bringing the annual rate down to 2.8%, within the RBA’s target band. Six-month annualised trimmed mean CPI would also slow to only 2.2%, well within

Australian road user charges need overhaul

April 28, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Coalition transport spokesperson Bridget McKenzie floated on Sunday, working with state governments on a road user charge after arguing that tax breaks for electric vehicle (EV) owners are being subsidised by internal combustion engine (ICE) car drivers. “The reality is under the Labor Party, they’re not contributing”, McKenzie told ABC’s Insiders. “The roads are deteriorating

Hartnett: Sell

April 28, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

Michael Hartnett at BofA. Zeitgeist:“If no recession, equity lows are in, simple; but can’t jump back on bull unless Treasury yields falling below 4%, and earnings growth stays above 5%”, asset allocator. Tale of the Tape: 3Bs of Bonds (fastest 50bps UST jump since May’09), Base (Trump approval drop from 53% to 46%–Chart 3), Billionaires

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