Following the resumption of rate rises from the RBA earlier this week, many Australians have been left wondering how things went so badly wrong that the RBA has needed to raise rates only a year after it started cutting them, despite the prior rate rise cycle delivering the largest relative rise in mortgage rates in
Regional Australia should be alarmed by the latest long-term projections from the Centre for Population, which risk tilting the nation’s power balance further in the cities’ favour. To recap, the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects that the nation’s population will grow by 3,860,000 over the 11 years to 2035–36, with most (80%) of
DXY is back and showing no signs of fatigue. The AUD looks like a man clinging to the edge of a cliff. It has overshot its CNY sponsor. The Japan problem is back. Gold puked again. Copper longs must be feeling it. AI metals are in free fall. Big mining parabola goes “pop”. EM down.
Melbourne’s status as an economic wasteland continues to grow. The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), presented below by CBA, shows that Victoria has recorded the steepest rise in unemployment in the nation: Victoria’s trend unemployment rate is also the highest in the nation at 4.7%, sitting well above the
The ferrous jaws are finally closing. Another 3-4% and we will be at some kind of weak equilibrium in steel profits. That is, if steel prices don’t start falling again. And they well might. CISA output for the last ten days of January was poor. The year has started tracking 2019. There was a silver
A blowout in US unemployment claims, a collapse in cryptocurrencies and more unease over the AI uber-bubble added to rise in volatility across risk markets overnight as Wall Street fell back again, taking other markets with it. The USD continued its comeback against most of the majors, particularly the Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi while the
Australia’s 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount for individuals (introduced in 1999) has come under renewed scrutiny, with a broad coalition calling for reform to ease the housing affordability crisis, bolster the federal budget, and improve intergenerational equity. The push spans economists, think tanks, former regulators, international bodies, the New South Wales Treasurer, and even
Not a good day for precious metals or crypto currencies as Asian share markets also remain in a dour mood after the poor showing on Wall Street overnight. The USD is strengthening again and holding back the Australian dollar which is struggling to get back above the 70 cent level despite a good trade print
As noted many times, Australia enjoyed a few brief sane years of trade diversification when ScoMo stuck COVID up Beijing in 2020 and the nation responded by looking for other markets. Since then, Albo has bent over forwards to restore the same trade vulnerability. Thankfully, he partially failed because the Chinese trade mix has changed,
NDX is threatening to make a mess as recent range breaks down. Charts from TME. The fringe always leads the centre. Enough? SOX socked. So far, it has been software that has crashed, but if semis follow, then the AI story is cracking up. Tech volatility is near range lows unless this is something new.