With the release of the latest data from Statistics Canada, it was revealed that Canada’s fertility rate had fallen to just 1.25 children per woman. To put this into perspective, it’s lower than Japan’s fertility rate of 1.30 children per woman recorded during the height of lockdown during the pandemic in 2021. According to commentary
The Market Ear on the bubble. Nothing is impossible Can the AI frenzy go into total overdrive? NDX now compared to 1999. Source: LSEG Workspace Retail mania “Retail investors have bought over $100bn of US equities over the last month on QDS estimates based on public data* – the largest 1-month buy on record, just
In this week’s podcast, we are taking a look at the crushing weight of Australia’s housing market—why affordability is being flattened under rising prices, what’s driving the squeeze, and what comes next for buyers, renters, and investors. Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded
A national interest policy process is one in which a well-informed government determines its policy settings via a specialist area of the bureaucracy. Next, the draft policy is released, and parliamentarians make well-understood arguments to the public via an intelligent media with its own specialists. Having fortified the polity with knowledge, the government might then
A new report from Oxfam claims that the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing are “disproportionately” benefiting Australia’s wealthiest, fuelling the housing affordability crisis and inequality, and harming the federal budget. Accordingly, Oxfam has called on the government to “properly tax wealth and restore a progressive tax system that works for working people”.
It appears that the government-funded jobs printer of the Albo era is slowing faster than the crushed private sector economy of the Albo era can catch up. Public spending has been much more labour-intensive than private spending, given its focus on the bedpan economy. There is mounting evidence that this is resulting in a softening
This week’s consumer sentiment survey from Westpac revealed that Australian house price expectations are at their highest level in 15 years, following a 2.1% rise in October. Westpac also noted that “expectations are stronger still in Queensland (184)”. Queensland’s housing market has boomed following the pandemic to become the nation’s second most expensive jurisdiction after
In last week’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate on hold, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than
The ferrous complex remains paralysed by too much versus too much hope. Some Morgan Stanley charts illustrate the point. Steel is weak globally and abundant in China still. We are about to witness the weakest New Year restock in history, just as Chinese steel exports top out on trade wars. Iron ore is everywhere! The
What we are seeing in many markets today is exactly what I expected to see when I made my 40 cents AUD call a few years ago. American exceptionalism is alive in the AI bubble but severely crimped by anti-Trumpian capital flows. The Chinese economy is slowly dying, but propped up as it pours money