The Market Ear. It doesn’t matter… …until it matters. Note the latest short term gap between the US 10 year (inverted) and SPX. We saw a similar early gap form between the two in late October, before SPX “joined” the move. Source: LSEG Workspace Once again? In late October we saw the 10-year pick up
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Q3 2025 national accounts, which reported a 0.4% rise in headline GDP over the quarter and a 2.1% rise through the year. The result disappointed analysts’ expectations, which had tipped a quarterly rise in GDP of 0.7% and an annual increase of 2.2%. The result was
In mid-2023, just as Australia’s net overseas migration was ramping up toward record levels, the mouthpiece of big business, The AFR Chanticleer, proclaimed that Australian businesses were “licking their lips” at the prospect of higher migration, “with few doubting that a bigger Australia is better”. “It is boosting retailers’ sales, increasing landlords’ ability to collect
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling approvals statistics for October, reporting 15,844 trend approvals, down 0.6% from September. Approvals in October were 4,168 (21%) behind the National Housing Accord’s five-year target of 20,000 dwellings per month. In the year to October, 192,100 dwellings were approved for construction, which was 47,900 (20%) fewer than
ANZ-Indeed job ads have commenced a new adjustment. ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 0.8% m/m in November following an upwardly revised 1.9% m/m decline in October.The trend series fell 1.3% m/m, after a 1.9%m/m fall in October ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence is following suit. Consumer confidence declined 1.6pts last week to 85.5pts. The four-week moving
For years, MB has argued that the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) estimate of education exports is wildly exaggerated because it: Incorrectly includes income from international students working in Australia. Does not adjust for remittances sent home from Australia by international students or former students (which are an import). The ABS estimates that education exports
One Nation is eating the LNP alive. DemosAU MRP Model projects results for all 150 individual federal seats One Nation rise: Approximately 1 in 5 Coalition voters from 2025 federal election now intend to vote for One Nation Final result: Labor leads Coalition 56 – 44 per cent 2PP Some folks still don’t get it.
Some stability returned last night to risk markets with both Wall Street and European stocks making modest gains after scratch sessions across Asian markets yesterday. While the USD steadied again it remains under pressure as everyone is expecting a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting while the Australian dollar is holding on to its
DXY is fading away. AUD is rising. CNY helping. Commodities took a breather. EM yawn. Junk better. As yields eased. Driving stocks. The Japanese shock appears contained in a currency sense. Japanese public debt is around $14tr, so you can imagine that any meaningful move in interest rates, especially a rapid one, is going to
Ballooning state debt, soaring taxes, a stagnating economy, and rising crime have made me highly critical of the Victorian economy. One area where the state government has performed well is housing affordability. As illustrated below, Melbourne dwelling values have risen by only 23% since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. This compares