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Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 12:30 Source

The Aussie trade balance for November was out yesterday and shows one great, big trend: a disappearing trade surplus. Some of this was always going to happen as the post-Ukraine War commodities mania subsided. I expect we’ll be running a deficit by year’s end as iron ore and energy continue to fall, despite gold. There

The post Albo reloads China’s trade cannon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 12:00 Source

Calculated Risk sums the data. On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that

The post US jobs preview appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 11:30 Source

Charts from TME. SPX is caught in a bearish rising wedge, tough it could also be seen as a bullsh asending triangle. Tech is more neutral and could go either way from a symmetrical triangle. The NY rotation has been from tech to the broader market, or, put another way, from AI spenders to AI

The post Tech bubble struggles to find oxygen appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 11:00 Source

As of the latest building approvals data from the ABS, in the last 12 months, 111,500 detached houses were approved for construction. This result comes with both good news and bad news. The good news is that the figure for detached house approvals is up by 6,800 homes from the lows seen in December 2023.

The post House approvals plunge back to 1970s levels appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 10:53 Source

In an article published in the Swiss Military Journal, Swiss officer Pascal Koller slanders Jacques Baud in the most despicable manner. We prove that he is lying and show that criminal charges are the only way to put this petty criminal in his place. Is he being protected by the Swiss army leadership or is he acting alone?

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 10:30 Source

As expected, nothing of substance will be discussed beyond tightening a police cordon around your life and opinions. Tackling antisemitism by investigating the nature and prevalence of antisemitism in institutions and society, and its key drivers in Australia, including ideologically and religiously motivated extremism and radicalisation. Making recommendations that will assist law enforcement, border control,

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THE BLOT REPORT Friday, January 9, 2026 - 10:27 Source

After a stupid statement by the silly old fart Bob Katter stating that every school should have an armoury in which each child could store their rifles, I wrote a piece about him and the reason he was so keen to sell more guns to Australians. That reason was that his son-in-law owns a large supplier of arms, ammunition and accessories1. Ever the spiv.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 10:21 Source

The fatal shooting of a woman in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by an ICE agent was a “tragedy of her own making,” US Vice President J.D. Vance has said, throwing his full support behind the agency.  

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 10:00 Source

Analysts are beginning to assess the implications of the Trump administration’s toppling of the Maduro government in Venezuela, not only for the Americas but also for the world. In 2024, Venezuela exported around 1 million barrels of oil per day. In January 2025, a little under half of that, around 390,000 barrels per day, was

The post Venezuela intervention hits Beijing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 09:45 Source

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 09:30 Source

The ferrous complex is up to its usual New Year games as speculation mounts about imminent yawnulus. There is some evidence for increased fiscal support in early-year bond issuance; however, the usual caveats apply. More and more, such spending is directed away from commodity-intensive uses. Additionally, the yawnies must now contend with the anti-involution investment

The post Steel sag meets iron ore rip appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 09:00 Source

A huge fill in the US trade deficit overnight gave the USD some more power, while the latest US initial jobless claims suggest another weaker NFP print tonight that should encompass post shutdown data. Wall Street stumbled around however as did European stocks with oil putting in a surprise breakout, most likely due to protests

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 08:54 Source

Are Russia and China, the BRICS, willing to continue to let Trump redraw the ‘mappa mundi’ according to his own exclusive interests? Or is it time to see a real alternative to US hegemony take shape?

 

No alternative to US hegemony?

Ricardo Nuno Costa

 

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 08:30 Source

DXY is threatening a little again. AUS has a nasty candle but has not yet broken support at previous resistance. CNY is supportive. A rare up day for oil. Metal mania has turned DXY bust. Another nasty candle on big miners. EM sag. Junk refuses to corroborate any rally. US long-end warming up. Stocks struggling

The post Australian dollar crashes into new world order appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 08:24 Source

A new analysis finds that the richest 15 billionaires in the U.S. saw their wealth skyrocket by nearly $1 trillion in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, which also contained one of the single largest cuts to welfare benefits in U.S. history.

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 06:55 Source

With corporate media forcing PM Albanese into a small target corner on messaging, the right is filling the rhetorical void. Andrew Gardiner looks at the repercussions.

 

Albo’s search for the middle leaves him exposed on both flanks

by Andrew Gardiner

 

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 05:44 Source

Australia’s visa laws allow exclusion on grounds of character and incitement of discord. Those tests raise serious questions about whether Israel’s president should be welcomed while the killing in Gaza continues.

 

John Menadue

Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke should reject a visa application for Israeli President Herzog

 

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Your Democracy Friday, January 9, 2026 - 04:33 Source

 

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MacroBusiness Friday, January 9, 2026 - 00:05 Source

In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, the Australian economy has become ever more reliant on government for positive outcomes. Much of the revenue required to underpin this ongoing intervention has been derived from the explosive rise in resource exports, which rose by well over 200% at their peak in 2023 compared with their

The post Albo takes over the economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets are not doing well as the positive lead from Wall Street dissipated overnight with commodity volatility continuing to dominate other risk markets while bonds go sleepy. Currency markets are selling off commodity currencies while Euro and Pound Sterling are trying to stabilise after a wobbly start to the new year, relatively speaking

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 15:39 Source

clarke creek wind farm queensland squadronPrice and emissions savings seen in 2025 could soon be in the rear vision mirror as the Queensland Government commits to expensive, polluting fossil fuels.

The post Record year for renewables eases prices and pollution as coal clunkers go missing in Queensland appeared first on Renew Economy.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 13:00 Source

The Market Ear on where we are. SPX stuck SPX remains stuck in the wide range that’s been in place since September. We’re now sitting in the upper end of that range, an area that has rejected price on three prior occasions, with 7000 (futures) standing out as major resistance. Mean reversion has been the

The post Will anarcho-imperialism crash the market? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 12:30 Source

Readers will be well aware of the looming global LNG glut. Global LNG output rose 6% in 2025 and is expected to grow for at least another four years on the back of record-setting investment in new facilities. This year alone, two giant projects — Golden Pass in Texas and a major expansion in Qatar — are

The post Drill, baby, drill turns crash, baby, crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 12:00 Source

The Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, which came into effect on 1 October, has pushed the last of Australia’s affordable housing beyond reach. Lower-priced properties, or those covered by the extended Home Guarantee Scheme price caps, have generally seen better growth since September of last year, according to new Cotality study.

The post Deposit scheme pushes the last homes beyond reach appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 11:30 Source

The iron ore jaws are opening wide. Put your hand in if you dare. The widest in three years, in fact. Scuttlebutt is excited! Iron ore futures rallied on Wednesday to ‍their highest in multiple months, boosted by ​hopes of improving demand in top ‌consumer China following Beijing’s pledge of ​easing monetary policy this year.

The post Do you dare the iron ore jaws? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 11:00 Source

During Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign for the U.S. presidency, campaign strategist James Carville coined a now-legendary catchphrase. Those four simple words were: “It’s the economy, stupid”. While originally intended as a campaign motto to maintain on-message, it became a de facto campaign slogan that remains a point of focus to this day. But in the

The post It’s housing stupid appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 10:50 Source

The US Justice Department has quietly scaled back its indictment of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, retreating from a central Trump-era claim that he led a drug cartel.

The original accusation, included in a 2020 grand jury indictment, portrayed the Cartel de los Soles as an organized criminal group allegedly led by Maduro and engaged in large-scale cocaine trafficking.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 10:30 Source

Yesterday’s monthly inflation number was softer than expected, easing fears of a February rate hike. Summing up, headline CPI was lower than Westpac had anticipated, coming in at 0.0% for the month as opposed to its projection of 0.4%. This puts Westpac’s current December quarter nearcast of 0.6%qtr for the Headline CPI and 0.8%qtr for

The post No 2026 interest rate hikes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 10:00 Source

As things currently stand, the Albanese government possesses the largest majority achieved by any postwar federal Labor government at the ballot box, holding 94 out of the lower house’s 150 seats. Meanwhile, unlike other governments of the recent past that were heavily reliant on a broad range of Senate crossbenchers, Labor needs only the support

The post Australians distrust Albo with the economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, January 8, 2026 - 09:30 Source

DXY has shown signs of life since El Trumpo crashed the world order. AUD has nonetheless been riding the Asian assets party. Which ended yesterday. Gold is overbought again. Oil is doomed. The metals blowoff collapsed under its own weight. Big miners are parabolic. EM in free air. None of it is supported by spreads.

The post Australian dollar sags with anarcho-imperialism appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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