Oz Blog News Commentary
politicalowl Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 17:34 Source

At the two recent state elections the Greens vote has fallen.
In South Australia on Saturday their 6.6% share was two points down on their 2014 effort and 1.5 percentage points down on 2014.

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politicalowl Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 16:38 Source

A strange kind of decline that Andrew Bolt claims to have seen.In South Australia:

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politicalowl Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 16:15 Source

Donald Trump’s Rivals Lash Out Over “Cowardly” Firing of Deputy FBI Chief - Mother Jones“When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known…”

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Inside Story Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 14:41 Source

Two closely watched elections this weekend have produced unexpectedly straightforward results. Despite high hopes, the Greens suffered a negative swing against a strong Labor candidate in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, and in South Australia a longstanding Labor government was unseated by the Liberals, with support for Nick Xenophon’s SA-BEST falling well below early expectations. On the morning after, Peter Clarke talks to political scientist Rob Manwaring about what happened and why.

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Inside Story Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 14:28 Source

One result should not have been a surprise, but it was to most. The other — well, if anyone else had happened, it would have been pretty weird, but then the whole spectacle of the three-team contest was pretty weird.

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Harrangue Man Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 13:54 Source

It's a windy day the the nation's capital and like a dickhead I thought I'd risk an outside ride anyway, at power one for penultimate non-assist.Things I learned.Squint and close lips when going under a bridge because there will be grit; I can still taste it.Just because you're over one hundred kilos and your bike is a man trike does not mean you can resist wind; I was nearly blown sideways into a lane divider.Gum trees drop branches in heavy wind and other trees can lose theirs too. Whilst none dropped as I rode the evidence of branches blown off was gathering with the wind.

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The Tally Room Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 13:27 Source

There’s been a lot of chatter about SA Best and their impact on the SA election, and I will return to them in my next post, but I wanted to focus here on the actual result. The overall result saw a change of government, but with practically no seats changing hands compared to the notional redistribution analysis.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 12:54 Source

It has been the great misfit Australian policy since the 1990s: a refugee and immigration policy that shows itself to be scrupulously fair, calculable and clean. Nothing shall be permitted to sully this presumption. Even as refugees and asylum seekers gather dampness, decay and depression in Pacific camps, the Australian immigration policy shall remain, like…

The post Racial Preferences: Peter Dutton and White South African Farmers appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Drag0nista's Blog Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 12:03 Source

This week’s column for The New Daily. I also produce a politics newsletter for my Patreon supporters. Click here to see a couple of free editions of the newsletter.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 10:32 Source

Got talking to Pete last Friday down the local … the subject got onto the passing of one’s parents … I s’pose because we are both old now ourselves and it comes as no longer an immediate sorrow, but rather one lived through so many years ago. And we got onto the reactions one experiences…

The post Cheeriozy! appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Poll Bludger Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 07:43 Source

The cards finally land in the right places for the Liberals in South Australia, despite an overall swing in Labor's favour.

The post Third time lucky appeared first on The Poll Bludger.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 07:04 Source

Sunday 18 March 2018 I sit before my computer fingers poised, well two of them anyway, searching for a beginning and I cannot find one. By the time people are reading this the Batman by-election and the South Australian Election will be done and dusted. Or perhaps we will have to wait and see. Both…

The post Day to Day Politics: Why did he do it? appeared first on The AIM Network.

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North Coast Voices Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 00:16 Source

“This is indeed the wealthiest retired generation ever in Australian history….

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North Coast Voices Sunday, March 18, 2018 - 00:15 Source
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The Tally Room Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 23:36 Source

I love a good electoral map, that can tell a story about how a seat’s population votes in different ways and how the balance of those communities decides who wins an election. Batman has produced a fascinating map at recent elections, with the Greens dominating south of Bell Street while Labor rules the roost to the north.

The question at this election was whether the Greens could breach Bell Street and take more of the vote north of the road. The answer is: yes, they can. But they did so while losing support in their heartland, and the swing to Labor in the south was stronger than the Greens swing in the north.

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John Quiggin Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 22:32 Source

When Malcolm Turnbull, as PM, first faced Bill Shorten, as Opposition Leader, I correctly surmised that this would be a contest between a bold and innovative leader, unafraid to put forward controversial policies if they were right for the country, and a timid pragmatist, tied down by secret deals with factional warlords, and standing for nothing. I just didn’t realise which was which.

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Poll Bludger Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 18:30 Source

Live coverage of the count for the South Australian state election.

The post South Australian election live appeared first on The Poll Bludger.

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North Coast Voices Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 18:11 Source

SA Electoral Commission - South Australian General ElectionVirtual Tally Room here - after 6.30pm Sydney time.ABC Election Coverage 2018 #SAvotes - ABC Radio ADELAIDE ...Australian Electoral Commission - Batman By-election VictoriaVirtual Tally Room

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The Tally Room Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 18:00 Source

Batman by-election results

Primary %
2PP votes
2PP %
2PP Swing

Yvonne Gentle
Rise Up Australia

Ged Kearney

Alex Bhathal

Kevin Bailey

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Poll Bludger Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 15:22 Source

Super Saturday, phase one: live coverage of the count for the Batman by-election.

The post Batman by-election live appeared first on The Poll Bludger.

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John Quiggin Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 14:36 Source

Thanks to everyone who the first four chapters of my book, Economics in Two Lessons. I’m continuing with policy applications of Lesson 1: Market prices reflect and determine opportunity costs faced by consumers and producers.
That will be followed by Lesson 2: Market prices don’t reflect all the opportunity costs we face as a society.

Now here’s the draft of Chapter 5. Again, I welcome comments, criticism and encouragement.

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John Quiggin Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 14:25 Source

I haven’t had time to do a proper economic analysis of Labor’s proposals on dividend imputation credits. But you don’t need an economic analysis to see that making an overt appeal to conservative voters on the issue, as Richard di Natale has just done, is a very bad move if the Greens party wants to present itself as a left alternative to Labor.

Perhaps this is poor judgement in the heat of a by-election campaign, the significance of which seems to me to be greatly over-rated by all.

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politicalowl Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 12:42 Source

The probabilities about today's elections based on the betting market odds:

SOUTH AUSTRALIAParty of next PremierLabor52%Liberal40%SA Best8%100%A hung parliament?Yes68%No32%HartleyLiberal (Tarzia)74%SA Best (Xenophon)17%Labor (Portelesi)4%Others5%

FEDERALBatmanGreens68%Labor30%Any other2%

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The Australian Independent Media Network Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 12:00 Source

If there is one particular action that is put in place by every person or agency that feels itself in need of security, power or protection, it is the almost automatic implementation of their “Fortress Mentality”. This “organic reaction” by entire dynasties, empires and individuals can be traced even in the architecture of construction of…

The post A Fortress Mentality appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Harrangue Man Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 11:58 Source

We live off on an arterial road and it means we get traffic noise.In Oz, and indeed in many places, there appear to be those that re-tool their vehicle so they become louder.We call them "cock-spanks on patrol" because they drive or ride their vehicles about to inflict noise because it makes them feel better.Unfortunately to someone whose shed backs onto the road it means I enjoy their presence more than most.I wasn't even in the shed when the chopped motorbike or de-muffled ute went past but outside having breakfast when they farted their vehicle through the otherwise pleasing ambience.

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Your Democracy Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 11:55 Source
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The Australian Independent Media Network Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 11:00 Source

By Denis Bright With its surging population growth, economic volatility and internal income divide, many of our neighbours in Papua-New Guinea (PNG) are having difficulty coping with the everyday challenges of globalization. Official economic growth rates are artificially elevated by the commercial export sectors in oil, natural gas, minerals, timber products as well as traditional…

The post Near Neighbours – PNG: New Fault-lines in the Tropics appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Harrangue Man Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 10:48 Source

"I'm out!" (avoids area).

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The Tally Room Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 10:41 Source

Polls have now opened in the South Australian state election and the federal Batman by-election, and will be opening in the state by-election in Cottesloe within the next half-hour.

This post is mostly to provide a place to discuss today’s events, but I did want to touch briefly on the two statewide polls released last night for South Australia.

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Harrangue Man Saturday, March 17, 2018 - 10:02 Source

With my not being in a normal, high-stress job means my dairy allergy has passed; I can eat cheese again.Pizza is a thing I missed since it is basically a cheese-delivery vehicle and therefore I enjoy pizza now.That is, when I can pick up a slice and transfer it to a plate or my mouth.My anxiety was up so my PTSD was up and my hand tremours were up.That's how it came to be I lost a slice of the meat pizza to the kitchen floor. It landed topping-side up but that's a nasty floor so I grunted as I bent—my muscular-skeleton system is dodgy due to prior ownership—and retrieved the slice to bin it.

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