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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 11:30 Source

For the life of me, I don’t know why anybody wants to be long iron ore here but hey, that’s how markets work sometimes. Steel prices continue to fall, though long products are falling faster than flat products, which is key to some market resilience, as it helps hold up blast furnace output over electric-arc

The post Iron ore wakes in fright appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 11:04 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 11:00 Source

While Japan welcomes almost 37 million visitors per year and is widely considered one of the safest places in the world, in quarters more focused on economics, the focus is often placed on its status as a cautionary tale. In some ways, this characterisation is entirely fair. Japan is the developed world’s poster child for

The post Australia vs Japan – The Lucky Country Loses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The biggest problem is the systemic long. Any decent shock gives VaR implosion. Fragile SPX futures basically reversing the bounce from yesterday. 6600 is the big short term level. The 50 day comes in right on that level. A close below, and 6500 is the next support, followed by the 100 day at 6400. A

The post Not out of the bear’s den appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:19 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:02 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:00 Source

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement alongside its decision noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected

The post The case against RBA rate cuts strengthens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 09:30 Source

An MB reader has sent this excellent proposal for resolving the East Coast gas crisis by shutting down GLNG without creating sovereign risk. There’s a possible win/win/win scenario that could be negotiated Suitors for GLNG take a look at the books and run—I think the contingency liability not currently sitting on the Santos balance sheet

The post How to fix Santos, crash gas prices and avoid sovereign risk appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 09:06 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street is trying to continue its rebound from its Friday night slump while navigating a speech by Fed Chair Powell as other risk markets are still expecting another TACO trade setup when the Fat House eventually capitulates. Meanwhile the USD was unable to continue its nascent lift with most of the majors returning to

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 06:08 Source

DXY is hovering. AUD dumped and pumped on tariff headlines. CNY has rolled. Gold to heaven, oil to hell. Metals turned casinos. RIO is breaking out of the big bear on the debasement trade. If it mined gold, I might agree. It doesn’t. EM dubious. Junk trying at the centre , not so much the

The post Australian dollar tariffied to death appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 04:33 Source

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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 03:33 Source

New research from investment bank Goldman Sachs affirms, as progressive advocates and economists warned, that US consumers are bearing the brunt of President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The latest batch of rental data from Cotality and SQM Research suggests that Australia’s rental market has tightened. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Cotality reported a capital city vacancy rate of 1.5% in September, which was 0.4% lower than a year ago and the lowest vacancy rate on record: The number

The post Why Australia has a rental squeeze appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Club Troppo Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 22:26 Source

Share this video! Please! Well, the time has come folks. On Thursday I’ll be launching a video series that’s been over two years in the making. I could have written a book, but I made 20 short videos instead. Conner … Continue reading →

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Club Troppo Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 22:24 Source

This piece began as a lengthy comment responding to Ken Parish’s post on my proposal for a third ‘people’s chamber’ chosen by lottery. I posted it on Substack a few weeks ago, but thought it might be a worthwhile post … Continue reading →

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 20:40 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 20:33 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 19:29 Source

Vice President JD Vance sparked alarm on Sunday when he said that President Donald Trump was considering invoking the Insurrection Act under the pretenses of combating violent crime in US cities.

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THE BLOT REPORT Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 17:50 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets are still stumbling following some potential progress on the rare earth US-China trade war while local economic releases and the latest RBA minutes are not really supporting more rate cuts for now. Despite this the Australian dollar fell back again to its Friday night lows as the USD lifted against most of

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 14:30 Source

The 12 months ending 30 September were volatile. But, after all was said and done, our international fund finished up 25%, our Australian fund finished up over 10%. Our tactical growth finished up over 14%. All of our funds look attractive relative to their benchmarks, especially as they were all significantly less volatile than the

The post MB Fund September 2025 Performance appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 14:00 Source

The Market Ear has more. The Alchemist way Gold’s “unstoppable” upside trajectory continues. We have been pointing out the similarity with the early 2025 break out move for weeks. That triangle break out saw gold surge by around 28%. Apply the same percentage gain to the late August break out and we could reach around

The post Gold rush appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 14:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 13:30 Source

It’s no secret that millions of Americans are struggling more today than they were prior to the pandemic. When one assesses metrics like consumer sentiment through the lens of individuals on the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, the impact becomes immediately clear. What is often less clear is exactly what lengths Americans are going

The post America: land of the RV appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 13:28 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 13:16 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 13:11 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Buy the dip or sell the rip? Technicals are clear as mud. The Market Ear. SPX technicals SPX has so far bounced on the 50 day, but this is not a very impressive bounce. Note we reversed 50% of Friday’s candle so far today. 6600 is the short term must hold level (50 day is

The post BTFD or STFR? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 12:59 Source
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