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MacroBusiness Friday, October 10, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The ferrous complex popped at the end of Golden Week yesterday. Pretty typical stuff. The steel profitability gap remains wide. We know a shakeout is coming for iron ore. The question is how deep it will need to be. Morgan Stanley has a crack at it. Downside risks to our long-term price target could emerge

The post Will China or BHP win the iron ore fight? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, October 10, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Australia’s ‘miracle’ jobs market has been a fool’s paradise. The unprecedented boom in government-funded jobs has driven Australia’s job growth and historically low unemployment rate. The non-market sector, comprising public and private service providers that rely on government funding, accounted for around 60% of total job creation since the pandemic and nearly 80% of job

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Renew Economy Friday, October 10, 2025 - 08:11 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, October 10, 2025 - 06:42 Source

The greenback is ripping. AUD is rolling over. CNY stalled. This is not good for gold. Or the silly AI metals rush. Which is feeding RIO. EM is also a DXY downplay. Junk is cracking lower. Which is odd given yields. Bubble paused. There’s no obvious reason for the sudden volatility, except that there is

The post Australian dollar hit hard by greenback hammer appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, October 10, 2025 - 06:12 Source

Top Hamas official announces end to Gaza warThe organization has received “guarantees” from the US that the hostilities will not continue, Khalil al-Hayya has said

The Gaza war is over, a senior Hamas official, Khalil al-Hayya, has said, adding that the peace plan put forth by US President Donald Trump would mark the start of a “permanent ceasefire.”

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Your Democracy Friday, October 10, 2025 - 02:01 Source

 

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Wednesday accused Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk of “defending terrorists,” over comments about the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. 

Tusk had claimed the day before in a post on X that “the problem with North Stream 2 is not that it was blown up. The problem is that it was built.”

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Your Democracy Friday, October 10, 2025 - 01:21 Source

US President Donald Trump is pressuring the Norwegian government and the Nobel Committee in an unprecedented push for the Nobel Peace Prize, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Experts reportedly remain skeptical that the campaign will succeed, however. 

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MacroBusiness Friday, October 10, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The 2025 federal election campaign saw both sides admit that they wanted to see Australian home prices rise at a ‘sustainable rate’ from already record-high levels. Both Labor and the Coalition offered ‘affordability’ policies that were really aimed at pumping homebuyer demand and increasing prices. It was a theme that has been repeated throughout this

The post Mortgage affordability is not housing affordability appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 20:46 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 20:41 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 20:36 Source

Smithfield battery iberdrola

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 20:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 17:09 Source

    AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Vids                                  

The post Macro Afternoon: 9 October 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 14:40 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 14:37 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Statistics New Zealand’s latest migration data showed that only 13,066 net overseas migrants landed in the country in the year to July 2025. This inflow was well below the decade average of 49,000 and more than 120,000 lower than the late 2023 peak. The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro shows that the

The post NZ rents fall amid migration slump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 13:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 13:30 Source

I have just returned from a rock-n-roll thunder tour of the world that took in Tokyo, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Rome. I have not visited any of these cities in forty years, so the changes were amazing. First, what had not changed. Everybody smokes, everywhere, thank god. Tokyo has barely changed as an experience, except

The post On the highway to Hellbourne appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 13:09 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 13:00 Source

With the release of the latest data from Statistics Canada, it was revealed that Canada’s fertility rate had fallen to just 1.25 children per woman. To put this into perspective, it’s lower than Japan’s fertility rate of 1.30 children per woman recorded during the height of lockdown during the pandemic in 2021. According to commentary

The post Western fertility rates turn Japanese appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 12:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The Market Ear on the bubble. Nothing is impossible Can the AI frenzy go into total overdrive? NDX now compared to 1999. Source: LSEG Workspace Retail mania “Retail investors have bought over $100bn of US equities over the last month on QDS estimates based on public data* – the largest 1-month buy on record, just

The post Dance like its 1997 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 12:05 Source

In this week’s podcast, we are taking a look at the crushing weight of Australia’s housing market—why affordability is being flattened under rising prices, what’s driving the squeeze, and what comes next for buyers, renters, and investors.  Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 11:44 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 11:30 Source

A national interest policy process is one in which a well-informed government determines its policy settings via a specialist area of the bureaucracy. Next, the draft policy is released, and parliamentarians make well-understood arguments to the public via an intelligent media with its own specialists. Having fortified the polity with knowledge, the government might then

The post Gas debate burns national interest alive appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 11:00 Source

A new report from Oxfam claims that the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing are “disproportionately” benefiting Australia’s wealthiest, fuelling the housing affordability crisis and inequality, and harming the federal budget. Accordingly, Oxfam has called on the government to “properly tax wealth and restore a progressive tax system that works for working people”.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 10:30 Source

It appears that the government-funded jobs printer of the Albo era is slowing faster than the crushed private sector economy of the Albo era can catch up. Public spending has been much more labour-intensive than private spending, given its focus on the bedpan economy. There is mounting evidence that this is resulting in a softening

The post More rate cuts coming as jobs market breaks down appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 10:00 Source

This week’s consumer sentiment survey from Westpac revealed that Australian house price expectations are at their highest level in 15 years, following a 2.1% rise in October. Westpac also noted that “expectations are stronger still in Queensland (184)”. Queensland’s housing market has boomed following the pandemic to become the nation’s second most expensive jurisdiction after

The post Brisbane house prices bubble-up appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:30 Source

In last week’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate on hold, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than

The post Bad news for Aussie inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:24 Source
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