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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Credit Agricole has a wrap on the broader themes. China’s 4th Plenum will take place on 20-23 October to discuss the 15th Five-YearPlan (FYP), outlining China’s medium-term strategic plans for economic and social development in 2026-30. The 15th FYP will likely prioritise technological innovation to achieve high-quality growth and ensure high-level security. While the FYP

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 13:30 Source

By Ross Elliott, cross-posted from The Pulse: A million people generate a lot of demand for things. Hospitals included. In Australia, we need on average 1 hospital bed for every 270 people, so that’s 3,703 beds for 1 million people. Based on a large hospital of say 500 beds, that’s roughly 7.5 hospitals for 1 million

The post Why Australia faces permanent infrastructure shortages appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 13:30 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Last week’s dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that in 2024-25, the Albanese government fell 65,970 (27%) behind the National Housing Accord’s target, which requires 240,000 homes to be built annually for five consecutive years. It also means that Australia will have to build around 256,000 homes annually over the

The post Apartment projects lay dormant across Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:45 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:39 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:30 Source

There is no substitute for stupidity in Australia. We do it better than anyone. If energy ran on stupidity, we would have the cheapest power in the world. Fresh from telling southern states that it can’t have any QLD gas, the Crusifulli government has added to the state’s energy woes. Queensland secures deal for first

The post Gas cartel devours QLD appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:14 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:10 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Chinese property crash is somewhere near the halfway point. Here is the raw data for Ssptember, Floor space sold: -10.5% yoy in September, vs. -10.3% yoy in August (value of sales:-11.8% yoy in September, vs. -13.8% yoy in August). Floor area under construction: -9.4% yoy in September, vs. -9.3% yoy in August. New home

The post Chinese property crash has only a decade to go appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Since the pandemic kicked off in early 2020, around 60% of the nation’s job growth has been driven by the non-market (largely government-funded) sector, which comprises healthcare, social assistance, education, and public administration and safety. As a result, the non-market sector now comprises a record high 31.5% of the Australian labour force. Last week’s Labour

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 11:00 Source

In September 2023, just as Australia’s net overseas migration was hitting its highest level in history (i.e., 556,000), NSW Premier Chris Minns told ABC’s 7.30 Report that he supported record immigration levels, claiming that more migrants were needed to build houses and apartments in the state. “We’re supportive of the commonwealth government’s decision to lift

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Recently, the level of migration has been a major source of controversy. A major part of the controversy is the lagged nature of Australia’s net overseas migration figures and the extent to which leading indicators are representative of the true migration level. As of late October, the most recent data available extends only to March

The post Settling the migration debate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Goldman kicks us off. China’s Q3 GDP report came in marginally above market consensus (though in line with our forecast) amid mixed September activity data — industrial production (IP )meaningfully beat market expectations, retail sales was in line, while fixed assetinvestment (FAI) missed notably, reflecting that the economy remains bifurcated. Real GDP growth moderated to

The post Iron ore’s golden depression rolls on appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 09:59 Source

Visit many areas of state forest in parts of Victoria and you might get a shock – the forest isn’t there.

It used to be there — logged four, five, six or ten years ago — and once stood as tall, straight trees, sometimes more than 50 metres high. Now, no longer. The forest has failed to regenerate after being logged by former Victorian Government agency, VicForests.

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear melts up. Things can always melt up No, the 1999 analogy is not very likely, but imagine the AI narrative goes really crazy? After all, everybody tends to underestimate all moves. Full note here. Source: LSEG Workspace Never forget Santa coming this year again? Source: Equity Clock That was quick “US ETF shorts

The post Everything melt-up resumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 09:00 Source

A further rally on Wall Street overnight due to more solid earnings which overshadowed the subprime drama in regional banks, helped along by a positive reaction here in Asia in yesterday’s session to strong Chinese GDP numbers. The AUKUS trap seems to be closing as the Trump regime signed a minerals deal with Albo in

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 08:00 Source

DXY is up. So is AUD. And CNY. Gold is unstoppable. Oil screwed.   Metals confused. Miners rising debasement out of the bear market but the iron ore challenge looms. EM to the moon. Junk less worried. Yields down. Stocks up. Not much data again. More soothing from the loon on trade but today’s gong

The post Australian dollar rallies with humiliation of Rudd appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 06:55 Source

Paenitentia, Solitudo et Silentium

"The universe contracted; at its exact geometric center floated that sandy tidbit of dark bread and pale cheese.*"

While Fukuyama lauded "the End of History", it should be obvious to anyone who turn stones upside down to seek cool sand in a furnaced desert, that history never ends, appears cyclical though it evolves from single cells to monkeys and humans who resent their unfinished nature in search of blessed documents. 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 05:45 Source

Former Trump national security advisor John Bolton has been indicted in Maryland on 18 federal counts of violating the Espionage Act, which is kind of poetic for a guy who’s spent a career demanding that everyone else get indicted for leaking things.

Bolton pleaded not guilty and will now enjoy the same due process that he’s long tried to deny whistleblowers, journalists, and the occasional sovereign nation.

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 21, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia’s auction market performed solidly again over the weekend, despite a high number of listings. According to Cotality, the national preliminary auction clearance rate rose to 73.8%, up from 73.0% the weekend prior and 58.2% in the same weekend of last year. “The clearance rate is an indicator that prices are going to continue to

The post The government is making the housing crisis worse appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 21:15 Source

The EU is doing everything in its power to undermine the upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said. 

Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told TASS on Monday that the bloc is carrying out “active subversive actions” ahead of the planned meeting in the Hungarian capital, Budapest.

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MacroBusiness Monday, October 20, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets have rebounded strongly on the TACO trade as the Trump regime looks like folding yet again over its tariff threats on China while the USD tries to take back a lot of lost ground against the majors but is only barely making headway. The latest Chinese GDP print didn’t scare the Australian

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 14:56 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 14:47 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 14:44 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 14:17 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, October 20, 2025 - 14:00 Source

New Zealand experienced one of the developed world’s largest rises in home values over the first 25 years of this century. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand dwelling values have recently crashed back to 2019 levels, representing one of the largest property busts in the developed world. One year

The post Former New Zealand PM calls time on 30-year housing bubble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, October 20, 2025 - 13:48 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, October 20, 2025 - 13:30 Source

There are two main reasons why the federal government supports running a high immigration program. First, immigration benefits overall economic growth, as measured by headline GDP. Running a high immigration policy allows the federal government to pretend to be a competent economic manager, even when per capita GDP growth is poor and individual living standards

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