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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Market Ear on equities. Approaching neutral “This week, positioning has continued to rise and is approaching neutral but is still a little shy of it (-0.14sd, 35th percentile)” Source: Deutsche Bank Far from max long Goldman’s Wilson sums it up: “…on our latest estimates CTAs would have another $95b of US equities to buy

The post Maxed out and underweight appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The ferrous market is not a strong believer in Chinese steel production cuts so far. Scuttlebutt is building, though. Steelmakers in northern China’s Tangshan city have received notice for environmental protection-related production control, information provider Tangshan Baochun Data said in a note on its WeChat account on Saturday. Some local mills have undertaken maintenance on

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Because, increasingly, you will have neither. Ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s upcoming trip to China, Sussan Ley said Australia should be wary of the expansion of an existing free trade agreement to include artificial intelligence and the digital economy. In an opinion piece in the Financial Review, China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, urged

The post Do you want multiculturalism or democracy? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 10:36 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Of all the narratives that exist within the realm of Australian housing and economics, one of the most hotly debated is “If housing is so expensive, how are people buying into the market?” Today, we’re going to take a data-driven deep dive into how Australians continue to enter the housing market for the first time.

The post How do first home buyers afford anything? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 10:00 Source

It’s Groundhog Day for Aussie households. As I noted yesterday, the gas cartel shock of the 2022 Ukraine war profiteering is once again landing on households as state subsidies roll off. Further evidence has appeared in the credit card data. Westpac. Energy bill relief has been a key plank of the ‘cost of living’ support

The post Gas cartel punches households in the face, again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 09:30 Source

It is amusing to watch some interest rate forecasters stick to tiny indicators. ANZ is one. After two consecutive months of decline, the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series has bounced back, from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June. The unemployment rate and the hours-based underutilisation rate (a broader measure of spare capacity) have been

The post RBA to keep cutting in fight against 357% unemployment appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 09:02 Source

Staff from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) participated in a post-war Gaza real estate venture aiming to turn the enclave into a for-profit trade zone, according to the Financial Times(FT).

The project envisioned artificial islands, blockchain-based real estate, and what was branded the “Trump Riviera.”

 

Tony Blair Institute linked to Israeli scheme to ethnically cleanse Gaza

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Overnight saw Wall Street react negatively to the Trump Tariff Tirade via letters to all the countries the regime has not yet done a trade deal (read: all but 3) with a surprisingly high number chosen for most and with threats of retaliation if any country decided to match or even attempt to put in

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 08:55 Source
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Prosper Australia Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 08:52 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 08:42 Source

Ever since Israel launched its illegal war of aggression against Iran on 13 June, speculation has swirled around the role played by MOSAIC – a tool created by shadowy spy-tech firm Palantir. 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 07:42 Source

Trump & Israel fired the first shot in a major war on BRICS as Iran's resilient defense shocks the world. Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar joined the program directly after Iran's attack on a US air base in Qatar to react to the significance of the 12-day war and what's to come as the Collective West panics over the power of the multipolar world led by the emerging BRICS countries.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 05:55 Source

I haven't much faith in

   A Peace that commences 

With hacking off limbs

   Or in sniping from trenches.

 

Yet some say 'tis Peace that

   We're now fighting for;

If THIS brings us Peace,

   What on earth brings us War?

 

R. H. LONG, 'Peace', in Verses (1917). A comment on the 1914-18 War.

 

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 05:01 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 05:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 16:00 Source

Its the Tariff Trading Week! You get a deal – you get a deal – we all get a deal! By deal, I mean a letter from the Bully-in-Chief stating what tariff you have to accept, since there’s been less than three US trade deals actually made in the last 90 days. Stock markets in

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, July 7, 2025 - 15:14 Source

gansu wind farm china

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Your Democracy Monday, July 7, 2025 - 14:19 Source

“Never in our history,” declared a TV anchor, “has there been such an avalanche of information, so little believed or believable.”

This was no anguished lament over AI or social media. This was 1967, the era of the Vietnam War, racial tension, and urban blight, when a group of liberal satirists launched a prank so well-executed it would later be called “the hoax of the century.

 

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Renew Economy Monday, July 7, 2025 - 14:08 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 14:00 Source

In the history of the U.S economy, every now and then there is a major shift in the balance of forces impacting the path of both growth and economic policy. While the coverage of this most recent shift has so far flown under the radar, it represents a major demographic alteration to the U.S. labour

The post America shows Australia has got immigration wrong appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, July 7, 2025 - 13:41 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 13:30 Source

As we know, Victoria disease is ripping through the Australian economy like COVID did before it. It is the plague of too many Labor governments importing too many people, creating a constantly rising demand for state-managed services, which do not have the revenue sources to pay for them. This is called horizontal fiscal mismatch. The

The post Victoria disease amputates political limb appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Morgan Stanley with the note. The uncertainty of application of tariffs is one reason we have continually called for patience to see the affect of tariffs in hard data. Our models predict that inflation will take approximately four months to see the full effects of tariffs and potentially even eight moths for growth to react

The post What now for tariffs? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, July 7, 2025 - 12:46 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Just imagine. You are a younger Australian, perhaps nearing the end of secondary school or nearing the completion of your university degree. Perhaps you are beavering away as a young tradie, have a half-decent gig with a large retailer, or are considering joining the freelance circuit as an IT or healthcare specialist. Odds are, you

The post Is Australian youth “doom spending”? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Over the weekend, OPEC+ production was raised of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, above the initial projection of 411,000 bpd. With the goal of regaining market share and stabilizing prices, this action quickens the rollback of the voluntary supply reduction in 2023. Even with this rise, OPEC+’s spare capacity is still projected to

The post Power bills roar higher again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 11:30 Source

With the release of the latest labour account figures, it was revealed that the total number of filled jobs in the economy contracted for the first time since the March quarter of 2021. In the years since the Global Financial Crisis and in particular since the onset of the pandemic, the Australian economy has become

The post Can the disabled Aussie economy stand on its own? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 11:00 Source

In the nation’s collective consciousness there are few issues that occupy as much mental headspace and backyard BBQ conversation as interest rates. For some, each rate cut is treated like nectar from the Greek Gods atop Mount Olympus. After all, over the last decade the pathway to greater levels of household disposable income for mortgage

The post Will rate cuts actually help the economy? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 7, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Stocks only go up is back. The Market Ear. Nets caught up Net leverage for hedge funds have kind of caught up with gross leverage – when looking from a percentile perspective. We have now arrived at generally “stretched” levels. Source: JPM PI More on the addition in net The net leverage climb steadily over

The post The bubble inflates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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