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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 14:00 Source

DXY has a juicy double bottom and is threatening to break out. AUD is under pressure. CNY too. Oil and gold are becalmed. The rising DXY is pressuring metals. Big miners ouch! EM is OK but will struggle if DXY rises. Junk is sending out a warning. Yields are still threatening to back up. Stocks

The post Australian dollar blowtorched by US dollar appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 13:55 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation surged by 1.0% in the September quarter to be 3.0% higher year-on-year—the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band. Inflation pressures were broad-based, with the share of CPI items growing above 3% rising to 50% in Q3, up

The post More bad news for Aussie inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The Market Ear with more. Weird market The S&P has stayed above its 50-day moving average for 128 straight days — one of the longest streaks ever, but at the same time more stocks are hitting 52-week lows than highs. Source: GS S&P Streaking We made it past the 5-months-in-a-row mark (which has been a

The post Tech bubble inflates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 12:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Goldman with the note. Government Shutdown: Much Closer to the End Than to the Beginning2 The partial shutdown of the federal government looks likely to last longer than any prior shutdown, mainly because there is little political pressure to end it. A greater share of the public holds Republicans and President Trump responsible for the

The post When will the US government shutdown end? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Alan Kohler is one of the few ABC journalists willing to openly and honestly discuss Australia’s immigration system, which is the fundamental driver of the nation’s world-beating population growth. The following video presentation by Kohler explained how the surge in international students in Australia is one of the key drivers of the nation’s high immigration-driven

The post Alan Kohler busts migration myths appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 11:36 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 11:30 Source

I spend a lot of time asking one simple question: Can earnings keep doing the heavy lifting? Valuations are stretched at the top end of the market, and the AI investment cycle is still in full flight. Yet, for all the worry, the income statement remains surprisingly resilient. So far, the reporting season has two

The post 3Q Reporting season in full swing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Budget watcher Chris Richardson says that public service wage pressures are exceeding budget forecasts. “It would appear the wage pressure is beating the budget forecast and that was always the likely outcome”, he said. Richardson’s comments follow an AFR analysis of 16 financial reports by federal agencies, which revealed that 14 had unbudgeted increases in

The post Bureaucratic bloat punches hole in federal budget appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 10:43 Source

Stubbo solar farm.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 10:39 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Australia’s official unemployment rate was 4.5% in September, the highest reading since November 2021 and significantly above the Reserve Bank’s forecast contained in its August Statement of Monetary Policy. I have argued repeatedly that Australia’s labour market has been artificially propped up by the unprecedented boom in non-market sector jobs, funded by the taxpayer. Australia’s

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 10:00 Source

RBA futures still see one more interest rate cut, but it’s six months away Meanwhile, Bloxo leads off the rate hike hysteria. Third-quarter inflation surprised sharply to the upside, and when a big surprise like this comes along, there are typically two possible responses. One is to dismiss the data as statistical noise that will

The post RBA rate hike hysteria begins appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The ferrous jaws must shut. And we have the perfect monster to do it. And it’s a moment that has the iron ore market holding its collective breath. The size and richness of the deposit means the start up at Simandou threatens to further tilt the power dynamics in a market already facing an uncertain demand future,

The post Pilbara killer closes jaws on iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Yet again Wall Street only rallied overnight due to tech giants as the AI bubble keeps the mirage of everything afloat. The USD is holding firm against all the majors although is making new ground against Kiwi and the Canadian Loonie while the Australian dollar is just holding on above the 65 cent level. Remember

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Last month, Build Skills Australia released a report warning that there are not enough tradespeople to meet Labor’s target of building 240,000 homes per year, which was tracking 65,970 (27%) behind in 2024-25. According to Build Skills Australia, the building rate per new resident has plummeted, despite the fact that the number of homes built

The post Australia has a severe tradie shortage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 06:55 Source

 

Beneath the diplomatic pomp and illusions of partnership, France is bitterly discovering that in the Atlantic Alliance, allies have no friends but their own interests.

 

Paris’s futile efforts: why is French military-technical cooperation with its allies failing?

    Mohamed Lamine KABA

 

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 05:44 Source

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with EU officials last week in an attempt to rebuild strained relations with US intelligence agencies, Politico reported, citing three people familiar with the matter.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 04:33 Source

 

The first in a series of first-hand accounts of the Dismissal, from the man who was there: John Menadue.

Deceit is the one word that comes to mind when I think about the Dismissal.

Many in the Coalition, with a born-to-rule view after 23 years of conservative rule, believed that the election of the Whitlam Government in 1972 was an aberration.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 00:05 Source

With the release of the latest ABS household spending data, it was revealed that in inflation-adjusted terms, households had only grown their spending by 0.2% in the September quarter. This result was down significantly from the 0.9% achieved in the June quarter and the weakest result since September last year. In per capita terms once

The post Australia’s household economy approaches stall speed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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George Monbiot Tuesday, November 4, 2025 - 00:02 Source

There’s an urgent need to replace our total mess with a codified constitution.

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian  23rd October 2025

After two years in Brazil, I felt I understood its political system better than I understand the UK’s. The reason is a short book in simple language that almost everyone owned: the constitution, published in 1988. Admittedly, I discovered the document’s limitations while trying to explain its principles to a furious captain of the military police with a pump-action shotgun. But at least I knew exactly which of my rights he was infringing.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 3, 2025 - 22:31 Source
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John Quiggin Monday, November 3, 2025 - 17:51 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 3, 2025 - 16:19 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 3, 2025 - 16:00 Source

Asian markets are generally steady following the weekend gap with traders absorbing the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit last week amid some other economy releases, not withstanding last week’s Fed meeting which saw a “cut and wait” approach as too much inflation and not enough job growth plagues the Trump regime. This has seen the

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, November 3, 2025 - 15:23 Source

Slow day on the keyboard today because the house is full of tradies doing roof repairs. It’s an insurance claim, thank god, because it looks like a very, very spendy job. There’s at least a dozen guys, a crane, a shit ton of scaffolding and new roofing iron, new insulation, a new solar hot water system and… now… a new ceiling for my library after one of the roofers stepped through it.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 3, 2025 - 14:58 Source
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THE BLOT REPORT Monday, November 3, 2025 - 14:35 Source

Like many inquisitive kids, I was fascinated with dinosaurs and knew the names of lots of them. When I was employed, I’d commonly see kids as young as 5, who could tell their parents (and me) the names of dozens of dinosaur genera. When I was about the same age as them, I was given a book on dinosaurs from the How and Why Wonder Book series. This series was turned out in large numbers on many topics, of which I had a few, but the dinosaur volume was my favourite1.

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