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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:00 Source

In Q1 2025, New Zealand’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.8%, surpassing the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 0.4%. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s GDP still declined by 0.7% year on year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by keeping the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3.25%

The post Reserve Bank braces for another recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:49 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Market Ear on more possible buyers. What’s not to like…? Equities may be at all-time highs, but positioning and sentiment still don’t scream euphoria. With neutral fund flows, massive sidelined cash, and no real signs of exuberance, the setup supports a potential melt-up — especially if CTAs, volatility traders, and retail all step in.

The post The bubble can inflate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:00 Source

During the GFC, the U.S. state of Texas emerged relatively unscathed. To get a handle on the relative performance of the Texas housing market during this era, we’ll also be looking at the Texas economy, labor market, and foreclosure rates, as well as some commentary from academia. A Bit Of Background – The Lone Star

The post How to bullet-proof house prices in a commodity bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Does anybody recall “Pig Iron Bob”. Sir Robert Menzies’s pejorative moniker that he took to the grave? The name sprang from the Dalfram Dispute: In 1938, Australian waterside workers refused to load pig iron onto the ship Dalfram, destined for Japan, which was then at war with China. This was due to the workers’ concerns that

The post Pig iron Bob returns from the grave appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers is already plotting your next power bill shock. You are currently enjoying a big shock, and it will double by year-end as the Chalmers’ Ukraine War subsidies roll off. Is there any hope of avoiding these? None. By year’s end, your power bill will have nearly doubled from 2025. Albo’s $12Gj

The post Chalmer’s next electricity bill shock takes shape appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Or is that behind? The market has flown the coop on yawnulus hopes. June was a better month for iron ore imports in China and a worse month for steel exports. I don’t expect the latter to hold up through H2. Meanwhile, yawnulus hopes are likely overblown. Goldman. Property market stimulus? In recent days, we

The post Iron ore superboom ahead? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Cotality’s daily dwelling values index shows that Brisbane is once again leading the nation on house price growth, recording appreciation of 0.8% over the past 28 days. PropTrack’s monthly dwelling values index has also recorded an 89% rise in dwelling values across Brisbane since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. This 89%

The post Brisbane’s unstoppable house price boom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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New Politics Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 10:41 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Last week, Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan posted the following video on Twitter (X) claiming that the government is “delivering more social homes in Pascoe Vale”. Australian governments have completely shattered the social contract. They’ve created one of the worst national housing crises anywhere in the entire world due to explosive rates of migration. They then

The post More immigration means less social housing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The overpaid, underqualified, and incoherent RBA has done it again according to Goldman. Year-ended growth in the ABS monthly trimmed-mean CPI eased 40bps to 2.4%yoyin May, while the Melbourne Institute’s more timely trimmed-mean gauge eased10bps to 1.2%yoy in June. The MI gauge is more volatile than ABS but is pretty good in trend terms. It

The post Aussie inflation collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY and EUR have swapped places. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots plod on. Gold meh. Oil delusional. Metals reflation over. Big mining bear intact. EM meh. Junk no bueno. Curve steepening continues. Stocks hold on. We await some very powerful and very contradictory outcomes. Tonight, in the US inflation report, which may or may not

The post Australian dollar to follow bitcoin appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 09:00 Source

While the NASDAQ just eked out another record high it was all eyes on the USD as markets prepare for the release tonight of the latest US CPI print where we should see if the Trump regime’s tariff crusade has had an effect on domestic inflation. European shares were off slightly as the EU mulls

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:45 Source

 

Sonya Wilson explains why wonder is at the heart of her novels Spark Hunter and The Secret Green

Last winter, about halfway up a small, damp slope in the Paradise Valley, I saw some steam rising from a lump of moss. 

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:42 Source

I haven’t really followed the Mushroom Lady murder trial—unless you count skimming the headlines, which were so everywhere-all-the-time that I felt I basically absorbed the whole story by osmosis. Like everyone else, I had an opinion. She done it. She so done it. And when the conviction finally came through, I’ll admit, it was satisfying, especially after what felt like a worrying delay for the jury to deliver the correct verdict.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:32 Source

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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:28 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:27 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 08:00 Source

International education is purported to be Australia’s fourth-largest export, valued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) at $51 billion in 2023-24. The ABS estimates this stunning export figure by using “an average spend estimate from Tourism Research Australia … supplemented by the addition of total expenditure on course fees”. The ABS incorrectly classifies all

The post Indian students drain money from Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 07:38 Source

Lol, this is a cricketing nation brought low. Scott Boland hat trick. I haven’t seen figures like that since D4s.

The post Windies keep early appointment with Holy Jah appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 07:35 Source

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 06:33 Source

There was much to read in the papers last Monday, the 7th of July. Three stories caught my attention.

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The Tally Room Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 06:30 Source

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners in each division.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 05:55 Source

The Guardian has published an op-ed in which is being called for more support for Ukraine. The piece acknowledges the difficulties for the Ukrainian army, the Russian advance and the lack of support on the part of NATO members. The author proposes that the West intervenes and organises no-fly zones in order to protect the unoccupied parts of Ukraine.

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 04:44 Source

 

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “severe” tariffs of up to 100% on Russia’s trading partners unless a deal is reached to end the Ukraine conflict within 50 days.

Trump issued the warning on Monday during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office.

“We’re very, very unhappy – I am – with [Russia], and we’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in about 50 days,” he stated.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 00:10 Source

This is wrong in every way that matters. Yahoo. Australia’s tourism sector says it is “great to see” Anthony Albanese spruiking the country’s postcard-perfect tourism offerings to would-be Chinese holiday-makers in Shanghai The Prime Minister on Sunday witnessed Tourism Australia sign a deal with Chinese travel giant Trip.com to promote Australia as the place to

The post More Chinese tourists means higher house prices appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, July 14, 2025 - 16:00 Source

An uneasy start to the trading week as markets react to further bullying on trade from the Trump regime, with distracting letters sent to the EU and Mexico over the weekend. The USD was up slightly on the weekend gap before losing those gains later in the session as the EU indicated it will just

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, July 14, 2025 - 15:20 Source
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