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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Everything is awesome on risk markets again as the US government shutdown appears over due to some spineless and feckless Democrats (but I repeat myself) bend the knee in the Senate. Wall Street rallied taking back most of last week’s losses with other stock markets following suit. This will probably last until the Supreme Court

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 08:00 Source

In the ongoing debate surrounding the Australian economy, there have always been and will continue to be defenders of the current economic strategy, whatever it may be. Historically, it was one of backing industries, boosting home ownership and strongly targeted migration. This strategy, for the most part, had goals that both sides of the political

The post Australia’s private sector is on life support appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 07:16 Source

 

Patrik Baab argues that Western governments—especially in Europe—refuse to pursue a negotiated settlement with Russia because their political survival depends on continuing the war. He claims Ukraine is being sacrificed (“brought to the butcher”) to serve Western geopolitical interests, primarily the U.S. goal of weakening Russia.

According to this view:

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John Quiggin Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 07:14 Source

114 years ago, the guns fell silent on the Western Front, marking a temporary and partial end to the Great War which began in 1914, and has continued, in one form or another, ever since. I once hoped that I would live to see a peaceful world, but that hope has faded away.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 05:55 Source

Now is the sinister time of year when the Barons of Big Oil gather together, under the auspices of the United Nations and with the blessing of most world leaders, to celebrate the 350 million needless deaths they plan to cause between now and 2050 in the name of profit.

 

Julian Cribb

The black work of big oil

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 05:44 Source

 

People closer to the action than I are suggesting that the end is nigh for Sussan Ley. They may be right; momentum is often all in these matters.

But I would be cautious about thinking the walk to the gallows is imminent. There are only so many metropolitan seats that angry old men in the Liberal Party can lightly wave away.

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 04:33 Source

Long, long ago – almost as if yesterday really – Ukrainians were promised that if enough of them were to die in a Western proxy war against Russia first, then, in an ill-defined, probably far-away future, their country – or whatever would be left of it – would be allowed to enter NATO. It is now considered rude to mention that promise, because the West has in effect broken it, while asking Ukrainians to please keep dying, preferably for a few more years at least.

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - 00:05 Source

In 2023, the media in Australia and around the world became enamoured by research claiming that ‘upzoning’ planning changes introduced in Auckland in 2016 had resulted in a building boom and lower home prices and rents. I showed at the time that the research was inaccurate because it used a “biased sample” to skew the

The post Housing supply YIMBY’s are frauds appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets in Asia are responding positively to possible news that the Republican shutdown of the US government may finally be coming to an end with the Senate passing a spending bill. Futures for Wall Street and undollars like gold and the Australian dollar have gapped higher as well with the latter leaping above the

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 14:52 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 14:44 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 14:18 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 13:30 Source

IEEFA wants Albo to waste another $1bn on green iron. As Australia pours $1 billion into its Green Iron Investment Fund, it can learn important lessons from the US and EU, where several low-emissions steel projects backed by capital grants were subsequently cancelled or delayed.  Projects with a “gas first, green hydrogen later” approach struggled,

The post Green iron and steel in a deep freeze appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, November 10, 2025 - 13:20 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 13:00 Source

China printed a bit of inflation in October, but it was pretty obviously seasonal. There is bugger all momentum in prices. The PPI was worse, though it also fell over the line in the month.   Anti-involution has dented deflation but it is temporary. Bloomberg has some great charts on the great deflation. Rise of

The post Chinese Titanic sucked into deflationary depths appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 12:41 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 12:30 Source

It is time to shutter the ABC. Flag burning should be criminalised, immigration should be capped based on housing supply, and the ABC and SBS should be sold and replaced by a taxpayer-funded broadcaster only for regional and outback Australia, according to resolutions to be debated at the Liberal National Party’s state council this weekend.

The post Time to cancel the ABC appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 12:18 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Last week, I reported an AFR analysis of 16 financial reports from federal agencies, which revealed that 14 had unbudgeted increases in staff expenses totaling $841 million. Budget watcher Chris Richardson warned that the wage blowout could threaten the federal budget’s March forecast of a $42 billion deficit for this financial year, as could the billions

The post Australia’s bloated bureaucrat economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:50 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:36 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:30 Source

With the election of Zohran Mamdani to the office of Mayor of New York, an event thought practically impossible just a few decades ago has come to pass: the most populous city in the United States and the centre of the financial world has an avowed socialist as its mayor. His victory speech possessed themes

The post New York turns hard left, the driving numbers appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:21 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:00 Source

OMG. The economists are panicking. “Interest rate cuts are off the table,” Mr Bloxham said. “The problem is that productivity is so weak that supply is constrained. So as input costs such as labour and energy rise there is no equal increase in output.” UBS economist George Tharenou said the underlying inflation rate would overshoot

The post Panicked Chalmers to restore energy rebates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, November 10, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Are you the annoying spoon or the sleepy spoon?

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Renew Economy Monday, November 10, 2025 - 10:41 Source
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The Tally Room Monday, November 10, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The first expansion of parliament was passed in 1948, and came into force at the 1949 election. It was also the largest increase we’ve seen, either proportionally or in raw numbers. The House and Senate were each expanded by two thirds – the House grew from 74 to 121, while the Senate grew from 36 to 60.

This blog post follows the model of my previous analysis of the 1984 parliamentary expansion, and will likewise be the first of two parts.

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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear kicks us off. The charts you need to know Here are a collection of the latest charts on sentiment and positioning from Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Deutsche, BofA, ISI, JP Morgan and more. NVDA’s GPT 3-year anniversary celebration NVDA celebrates upcoming 3 year anniversary of ChatGPT with a close to 1000% return… “….as

The post What next for the bubble? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, November 10, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Like other advanced nations, Australia is facing pressures from an ageing population. The federal government has tried to mitigate these ageing pressures by running a high immigration policy to mitigate labour shortages and increase the number of taxpayers. Former senior immigration department bureaucrat Abul Rizvi believes that Australia’s annual net overseas migration will average 300,000

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