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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Market Ear has more. Not calm VVIX at 125 and VIX at 25 is not calm markets. Noteworthy is that the VVIX/VIX gap stays wide. Source: LSEG Workspace Put love is back Put call ratio exploding to the upside as the crowd never buys protection when they can, but when they must… Source: Tradingview

The post Fear is back appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Susan Ley-led opposition has promised that a future Coalition government would run a ‘smaller’ immigration program that is around 100,000 below current extreme levels and basically the same as excessive pre-pandemic levels: The Coalition will position the cut as a way to ease the pressure on housing, infrastructure, schools and health care, as some

The post Coalition proposes fake immigration cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 09:11 Source

Hunkered down in Canberra after 11 November with the ‘caretaker’ conditions imposed by the Governor-General on Malcolm Fraser, there was a sense of unreality and nagging doubt about the future. The political and social fabric of trust had been torn. Would it keep tearing?

 

John Menadue

Working with PM Fraser - the changeover - Part 1

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street continued to selloff overnight but the falls were greater across the Atlantic as European share markets lost around 2% each despite a much lower Euro. US tech stocks made lower lows mid sessions but were able to recover later on, but it seems the wobbles in the AI bubble are deepening. Macro political

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Ben was joined by Frank Bongiorno and Chris Monnox to discuss the history of Australia’s federal parliament being expanded, in 1949 and 1984. We discuss the motivations for these changes, the positions taken by the parties and why it happened when it did. We also discuss efforts to break the ‘nexus’ which links the size of the House to the size of the Senate.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 07:33 Source

DXY is still firming. This may go on until the December Fed meeting. AUD is pinned at 0.65 cents. It looks more likely to break lower given all of those tails. CNY yawn. Gold and oil holding. AI metals are not. This is part of the junk spread widening. Miners struggle. Ditto EM. Junk is

The post Australian dollar paralysed at 0.65 cents appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 06:55 Source

Western politicians are focused only on exploiting Ukraine’s far-right-allied government for personal and geopolitical gain and have no concern for the country’s ordinary citizens, musician and human-rights activist Roger Waters has said.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 19, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The Victorian government’s recent tax changes—including higher land taxes, expanded levies, and reduced thresholds—have discouraged property investment by significantly increasing holding costs, reducing returns, and prompting thousands of investors to sell or avoid new purchases. In particular, the tax‑free threshold was cut from $300,000 to $50,000, meaning far more investors are now liable for land

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 19:47 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 19:41 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 17:01 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 16:45 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Market watchers pivoted on Japanese and Australian central bank words and actions today while some Federal Reserve members went dovish with calls for an actual rate cut in the upcoming December meeting as the US economy shows more signs of weakness (not that we would know given the NFP result hasn’t been printed for two

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 15:12 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 14:00 Source

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish shift, including the larger 50 bp cut at its October monetary policy meeting, saw the official cash rate fall to 2.5%, down 3.0% from its most recent peak: The sharp drop in the official cash rate has been matched in the mortgage market, where rates have fallen back

The post New Zealand’s house price crash has silver lining appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:44 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:38 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Given that it appears the Albense government is, once again, set to sell you out to the gas cartel with fake domestic reservation, it falls to me to point out one final irony. Just as Australia moves to do a fake version of what it should have done in 2012, a global gas glut of

The post LNG imports are Australia’s last energy hope appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:18 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:02 Source

Li-S Energy lithium-sulfur factory

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Victorians are experiencing acute Stockholm Syndrome, wedded to the failing state Labor government who has been in power for 22 of the past 26 years. Victoria’s nine-month lockdown during the Covid-19 outbreak was among the longest and most severe in the world. It was also brought to us by the state government, whose incompetence with

The post Victorian Liberals churn another leader appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 12:30 Source

We all understand the wisdom of Professor Michael Pettis. Today, he returns to discuss the implications for Australia of a severe China adjustment. “I don’t think overly emphasising commodity production is good for long-term growth because I don’t think productivity growth in commodity production compares with productivity growth in manufacturing,” he says. “Many people see

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Albanese government claims it wants to reduce immigration to Australia. However, its actions on the international student front say otherwise. Australia already has the highest share of international students and graduates in the world, accounting for 3.2% of the nation’s population as of Q3 2025, up from the pre-pandemic peak of 2.9%. However, the

The post Labor opens international student floodgates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Virtually all infrastructure experts opposed the Victorian government’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) because the cost was prohibitively high, the project lacked a business case, failed any objective cost-benefit analysis, and would not generate enough customer demand. For example, Victoria’s Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) conducted a cost-benefit analysis and discovered that the SRL East and North

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Market Ear leads us off. Delicate levels NASDAQ is trading right on the 50-day moving average. Friday saw a huge doji candle, indicating nobody is in control. Let’s see how this develops from here, but the longer-term trend line is a must-hold. Source: LSEG Workspace Relative tech stress VXN – VIX spread has shot

The post AI bubble quivers again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 10:43 Source

Kwinana coal power station, Synergy

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 10:30 Source

With the release of the latest polling RedBridge, it was revealed that Labor now hold 51% of the votes of Gen Z, followed by the Greens with 24% of the vote. This compares with Labor securing 40.3% of the Gen Z vote at the ballot box at May’s federal election, with 27.2% for the Coalition

The post The coming war within the LNP appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Australia’s labour market has been gradually softening over the past year. This softening is evident in the gradual rise in Australia’s unemployment rate: As illustrated below by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, the various measures of job openings have also weakened: Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors has published an interesting set of charts

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 09:30 Source

This is ridiculous in every way. In his first public interview on the issue, Australia Pacific LNG chief executive Dan Clark told The Australian that the east coast market’s chronic pressures cannot be solved with the series of band-aid solutions that have been applied over recent years. The call comes as the federal government prepares

The post Gas cartel readies your final destruction appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - 09:07 Source
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