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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 12:36 Source

Via The Australian: Bill Shorten has announced a future Labor government would repeal the government’s $144 billion income tax plan if it passes the parliament as he confirms the party’s opposition the bulk of the package. The Opposition Leader said Labor was prepared to vote for stage one of Malcolm Turnbull’s income tax package and

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Club Troppo Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 12:24 Source

When the financial crisis struck, it was back to the economics Max Corden learned in the 40s and 50s — a golden age of economics in which conceptual simplicity was a feature not a bug and the central criterion of good work was its generality and usefulness — rather than the conspicuous cleverness that defined later economics.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 12:04 Source

By Leith van Onselen The ABS has released its property price index – incorporating both detached houses and units – which registered a 0.7% decline in home values nationally over the March quarter but a 2.0% gain over the year, a sharp slowing from the 5.0% annual growth initially reported in the year to December:

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Harrangue Man Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:48 Source

My neck joints hissed out gas as something gargled in my throat. It was just my body. I sounded like a steampunk cyborg---and I look like a jolly rotund 19th century clerk.I know bodies make weird noises. But to feel bubbles of gas cook off from where ever it happens is weird and unsettling---much like my last trimester. Add to that the hip replacement of ceramic and titanium and other implants then that's the cyborg part.It could be worse; at least there's no assimilation threat from a steampunk cyborg. We'd be spending most of our time just locking down food and coal and nothing left over for chasing Dr Who or world domination.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:43 Source

Amusing stuff today. AUD is off the lows now: Bonds are well bid: XJO is threatening to break out as Trump declares a full blown trade war on China: Dalian is down hard: But Big Miners are up ex-FMG: Big Gas is flying: And Big Gold: And Big Scum: Big Puswad is a little more

The post ASX soars as Trump declares full blown China trade war appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:36 Source

Right on cue comes the RBA and its Futureboom! Domestic Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by noting that the March quarter national accounts would be released the day after the meeting. Based on indicators for the quarter received to date, GDP growth was expected to have picked up to be

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:27 Source

Via ANZ: We now expect to see peak-to-trough price declines of around 10 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne, with smaller declines elsewhere. This cycle is being driven by tighter credit, rather than higher interest rates. Higher interest rates in 2019 are expected to be an additional headwind, though rate hikes will only occur if the housing market has broadly stabilised. We note that

The post ANZ bears-up: Australian house price to fall 10% appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:25 Source

Another Monday Message Board, except it’s on Tuesday. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:02 Source

Via New Daily: China does not infiltrate other countries or seek to interfere in their internal politics, China’s ambassador to Australia says. Cheng Jingye has told the Australia China Business Council that relations between the two countries can improve after rising tensions over alleged political interference. “We have many shared interests. We both stand for

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 11:00 Source

by Chris Becker It’s no joke that Chinese stock markets are havens for speculative activity, more so than the casinos on Wall Street as the quasi-capitalist communist country catches up on the Great Moderation aka bubble to end all bubbles. It has been quite the ride – witness the epic rise and fall of the

The post Here comes the Chinese tech bubble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 10:24 Source

More excellent work from UBS today, this time George Theranou: What is DTI & how does it compare to LTI? In the wake of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry there has been an increased focus on Debt-to-income (DTI) ratios, particularly in relation to responsible lending. DTI differs

The post UBS: Mortgage debt-to-income limits to intensify credit crunch appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 10:01 Source

New 14 month lows as the downtrend gathers new momentum:

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 09:58 Source

As we know, Victorian opposition leader Matthew Guy yesterday hosed mega-Melbourne: Melbourne can’t afford to be an unlivable city of seven-plus-million people,” said Mr Guy, who was planning minister from 2010 to 2014. “That’s not the kind of city we should be leaving our children but it’s the kind of city we are headed toward.

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Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 09:41 Source

Now that the dust has settled after the Trump–Kim summit in Singapore, are we in a position to judge whether it was a success? I would give a qualified yes. Critics castigate Donald Trump for serving up a public relations coup to Kim Jong-un without extracting any clear concessions, but it isn’t clear that this matters. The United States made no concessions in return; and North Korea can’t “eat” publicity, or even the more amorphous “legitimacy” that was supposedly provided by the American president.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 09:30 Source

The AFR is celebrating the new mining boom: A $2 billion acquisition spree by South32 and Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has underscored the more upbeat outlook on commodity prices among industry heavyweights, with the scramble to buy or develop world class assets and infrastructure heating up as the world’s largest miners emerge from years of

The post Why it’s time to sell miners appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 09:00 Source

Via The Guardian: Voters are strongly in favour of the Turnbull government’s tax cut for low and middle income earners, but are considerably more cool on tax relief for high flyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. With the Senate set to resolve the fate of the package in the final two sitting weeks before

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 08:48 Source

By Chris Becker A lacklustre night on risk markets in the absence of economic catalysts as traders continue to weigh up the risks of a growing trade war and OPEC makes moves to shore up the flagging oil price. Tech stocks again providing the heavy lfiting on Wall Street as industrials wavered through an upbeat talk

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 06:36 Source

DXY and EUR boxed themselves to standstill last night: AUD was hammered versus DMs anyway: But couldn’t catch down to EMs: In an unfortunate development, the Chinese yuan is now falling fast, raising even more heat on EMs: Gold held its losses: Oil bounced on OPEC rumours: Base metals broke: Big miners hung on somehow:

The post Emerging markets crash drags Australian dollar to cliff appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Poll Bludger Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 06:23 Source

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it's back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

The post Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor appeared first on The Poll Bludger.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 06:00 Source

Tuesday 19 June 2018 After further consideration and another clue I am prepared to say that it is still possible to have a federal election in September or October. The next two weeks of the sitting of the Parliament the Government has a full agenda and noticeably missing is a bill to ban foreign donations.…

The post Day to Day Politics: Two weeks of mayhem. appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 04:42 Source

Good grief, via the AFR: Labor is urging the Turnbull government to tone down its anti-China rhetoric, warning that it is flirting with a “dangerous exercise” by politicising the bilateral relationship between Canberra and Beijing. Opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong will tell the Australia China Business Council’s showcase annual networking day in Federal Parliament

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The Global Mail - Syndicated Stories Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 01:20 Source

Even though we are net bullish as highlighted in our previous forecast, the resistance to further gains as visible in ETH, Bitcoin, NEO and even Ripple would probably clip our forecast. Notice that not only are prices trending within tight […]

The post Weekly Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash and NEO appeared first on The Global Mail.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:20 Source

Via NAB comes technical analysis for the AUD: Medium Term Price Drivers Since breaking the two- to three-year uptrend in April price has broken below the H2 2017 low at 0.7502 in four separate weeks but failed to close a week below 0.7502. A close this week below 0.7502 will confirm the break of the

The post NAB: Australian dollar to keep falling over next year appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:19 Source

The Bank of International Settlements is out with a new assessment of cryptocurrencies. It does not pull its punches: …a key potential limitation in terms of efficiency is the enormous cost of generating decentralised trust. One would expect miners to compete to add new blocks to the ledger through the proof-of-work until their anticipated profits

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:15 Source

It’s all part of the plan, from Domainfax Zones that control medium-density property development in sensitive areas would be changed and tightened up, under a Coalition promise to “protect” Melbourne’s streets. …Under Labor, developers on blocks bigger than 400 square metres have been allowed to build as many dwellings as they like – but they must

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:15 Source

Via Domainfax: Ipsos Public Affairs has been monitoring Victorians’ attitudes about issues for a decade, surveying 750 people each quarter. At the 2014 election, just 7 per cent of Melburnians, and 6 per cent statewide,  said they were concerned about population growth. In the most recent Ipsos survey this month, 20 per cent of respondents in

The post Population ponzi rockets as voter issue appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:15 Source

Via CoreLogic comes leading listings which are trending up” And leading mortgages which are trending down: Detailed Sydney and Melbourne auction results show an unchanged pattern with Sydney’s mortgage belt suffering and Melbourne showing more widespread but shallower pain:   Full report.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:10 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for April, which continued to show a trend rise in the number of inbound visitors, with Chinese arrivals continuing to boom. The number of short-term visitor arrivals fell a seasonal 22.1% in April in original terms, whereas

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:10 Source

Never mind the appropriate divisions of public policy and private business. Never mind market integrity or rules. Never mind science or evidence-based policy. The Coalition energy loons are in town. We begin at the top with Josh Frydenberg and the AFR: A deal struck in late 2015 by AGL Energy under its then relatively new

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 19, 2018 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: If you think your job is pointless, it probably is – WaPo (Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber) OPEC is discussing a compromise agreement to boost oil production as Iran, Venz, Iraq threaten to veto supply increase – Bloomberg Crowded trade watch: no-one likes the Swiss franc – FT Alphaville

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