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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:48 Source

DXY won’t go away. AUD pumped and dumped. Still running on the spot. CNY up! Gold and oil yuck. AI metals don’t care. RIO going parabolic. EM wants ATH, Tough with DXY. Junk rejection is a warning. As yields jackknifed on a not dovish enough Fed. AI doesn’t care. The Fed is confused. In support

The post Fed kicks Australian dollar dog appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:30 Source

For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears. Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market. The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports,

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Your Democracy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:26 Source

“Keeping perspective” is Michael Pascoe’s mantra. He writes that AI mania has not just warped perspective, it risks blowing up reality.

Over more decades than I care to count of market watching and reporting, I haven’t seen a time when there’s been more wide-spread conviction that we’re experiencing a dangerous bubble that’s sure to pop, yet the money keeps pouring in to inflate it. 

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 08:16 Source
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Your Democracy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 06:47 Source

What makes a life virtuous? The answer might seem simple: virtuous actions – actions that align with morality.

But life is more than doing. Frequently, we just think. We observe and spectate; meditate and contemplate. Life often unfolds in our heads.

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Your Democracy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 05:45 Source

WHEN I WAS SIXTEEN, a hundred years ago

CUM SEDECIM ANNOS ERIM, ante centum annos

I wondered about men having tits

De viris uberibus cogitabam

To feed the kids when women were hunting

Ad liberos pascendos cum feminae venantur

And women speaking in a manly voice

Et mulieribus voce virili loquentibus

Rather than this grinding pitchy

Potius quam hac stridula 

Which turns songs into screams

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 00:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 30, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Wednesday’s CPI shocker, which saw annual trimmed mean inflation jump by 1.0% and 3.0% year-on-year, has shut the door on near-term interest rate cuts. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was looking for trimmed mean inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2025. To achieve this

The post No more rate cuts! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 22:09 Source

Climate change is serious, but we’ve made great progress. We need to keep backing the breakthroughs that will help the world reach zero emissions.

But we can’t cut funding for health and development—programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change—to do it.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 21:27 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 18:08 Source

 

“Your mom” has become the accidental protagonist of October 2025. Once a throwaway line in online debates, she now features in exchanges at the highest levels of American politics. The unlikely transformation began with S.V. Date, a journalist from the HuffPost, who repeatedly tried to ask the Trump administration difficult questions. Each time, he was met not with answers but with taunts – and, eventually, jokes about his mother.

 

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Looks like everyone but the Fed is going to raise interest rates soon with the latest local inflation figures surging and cutting all chances of a cut from the RBA in its November meeting while it seems the BOJ is also likely to start raising rates going into 2026. Asian share markets are somewhat mixed

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 15:18 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 14:46 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 14:00 Source

A recent examination of freedom of information (FOI) requests called into question the Albanese government’s commitment to transparency. The Centre for Public Integrity, an independent research institute, discovered that 24% of FOI requests were denied during Labor’s first term in office. In comparison, the proportion of applications denied fluctuated between 10% and 18% during the

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Economist does not like Donald Trump and is enjoying his polling. Last week Steve Bannon told our editors that Donald Trump would serve an unconstitutional third term. On Monday Mr Trump said, “I would love to do it—I have the best numbers ever.” We have an update on those numbers. They’re not the best

The post Beware the Trump dump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Perth’s housing market has experienced one of the nation’s biggest price booms since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, with dwelling values soaring by 102% since March 2020, according to PropTrack: Despite the surge in values, Perth’s housing market remains relatively affordable compared to the other major capital cities. According to Domain, Perth is the

The post Perth leads booming housing market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:30 Source

In the debate surrounding immigration levels and population growth more broadly, the status quo is often described as normal, as if it were simply part of the natural order of things. Yet when comparing Australia’s population growth with that of the rest of the developed world, as IFM Investors Chief Economist Alex Joiner does below,

The post Australia is the odd one out on immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:14 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 12:08 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:46 Source

The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation spiked by 1.0% in Q3, well above the median economists’ forecast of a 0.8% rise. This took the annual trimmed mean CPI to 3.0% – the very top

The post Inflation spike kills rate cut hopes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:30 Source

TS Lombard gives us the company view of the new Five Year Plan. First, consensus expectations for 2026 GDP are too bearish. Xi Jinping has recommitted the CCP to doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 (just as we forecasted!) This entails a growth rate of ~4.6% yoy to reach that goal. While we do

The post China’s Five Year Plan to nowhere appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Here it is comes! Waymo is talking to local regulators about trialling the company’s self-driving taxis in Australia, as the autonomous vehicle company begins lobbying governments around the country. Owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Waymo describes itself as the “world’s first autonomous ride-hailing service” and says its vehicles have completed 10 million driverless rides

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xkcd.com Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Carefully maneuvering the balloon down a mineshaft in an effort to break the OTHER altitude record

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The IEA has done an analysis of the immense looming global gas glut. It is even bigger than I thought. Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. During this period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayed well above their historic levels. This limited

The post Energy superidiot fiddles while global gas burns appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Australia is the world’s leader in creating products and policies that load households with debt. This year, we have seen the federal Labor government introduce its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers as well as exclude student debts from loan servicing calculations. We have also seen Australian lenders announce new stimulatory mortgage products, including 40-year

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 09:30 Source

It’s a new paradigm for stocks! The Market Ear. Retail buying still relentless 1.October, September, and August 2025 mark the biggest monthly retail buy imbalances since 2019, with September hitting a record ~$3bn in a single day. 2. Since the S&P 500’s April 8th low, retail traders have poured in roughly $292bn, more than any

The post Punters drive stock markets mad appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street rallied again overnight on the continued potential US-China trade deal as risk markets pivot towards the expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week. The USD pulled back against some of the majors, particularly against the burgeoning Canadian Loonie as PM Mark Carney continues his Operation “Reach Around” while Euro range traded

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 29, 2025 - 07:47 Source
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