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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 15:22 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 15:22 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:54 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:43 Source

Following a wave of softer-than-expected data and the dovish May RBA decision, CBA has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts forward. “We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.60% at its 7-8 July meeting”, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen wrote. “And a follow up 25bp rate cut in

The post RBA set to rain interest rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Australia delayed implementing global anti-money laundering rules for nearly two decades. In March, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) and Transparency International released the inaugural Opacity in Real Estate Ownership (OREO) Index, which ranked Australia last in the world. The index ranked major developed nations on two key criteria: 1) the scope and accessibility of real

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:53 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:45 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Recently, it was revealed that the membership ranks of the Liberal Party were plummeting, with one party source claiming that the biggest party expense at the local level was “funeral wreaths”. Twenty years ago, in Victoria, the Liberal Party had approximately 15,000 members. Today, more recent figures indicate that the state’s party membership stands at

The post The Liberal Party is dying appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The Market Ear with more on the hated rally. Still little chatter… …about ATHs. SPX practically at range highs. Let’s see how this plays out from here, but an extension of the squeeze is not consensus. FOMO risk is huge. Source: LSEG Workspace NDX seasonality “We are entering positive seasonality for the NDX. Over the last 25

The post The hated rally is always the most violent appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Once upon a time, the immigration intake into Australia was a mostly benign issue, with the intake as a proportion of the population largely ebbing and flowing in a relatively limited range, consistent with the underlying conditions present in the economy. There were exceptions to this, most notably the return of servicemen and women following

The post The changing rules on Australian immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:30 Source
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The Tally Room Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:06 Source

The two-party-preferred vote is the simplest statistic we have in Australian elections – just two numbers that always add up to 100%. While it has reduced relevance for calculating the result in some seats, it still has predictive power and also plays a role as a sort of barometer of the relative popularity of the two major parties. Despite the increase in the vote for minor parties and independents, the choice of who forms government is still binary.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Via the ABS. CPI analytical series Seasonally adjusted 2.4 2.4 2.1 CPI excluding volatile items* and holiday travel 2.6 2.8 2.7 Annual trimmed mean 2.7 2.8 2.4 Two basis points under market expectations. The chart: Trimmed mean inflation is also running well behind the RBA’s forecasts, as illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors:

The post Monthly inflation takes a dump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:55 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:32 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, stepped up his attack on the Albanese government’s proposed tax on unrealised superannuation capital gains, which he labelled “unfair” and “un-Australian”. The proposed policy would increase the earnings tax on superannuation balances of $3 million or more from the current 15% to 30% without indexation. It would also

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:02 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The ferrous market does not look well to me. Scuttlebutt is pretty good. The benchmark July iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 0.15% higher at $93.65 a ton. Hot metal production, a gauge of iron ore demand, inched up 0.24% week-on-week to 2.422 million tons, as of June 20, according to data from Chinese

The post When all you have is a shovel, everthing looks like iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The gas cartel shills are in gear for the Santos takeover, according to the AFR. “The opportunity is there to leverage a far better outcome for the domestic energy market through a highly conditional approval – not just an undertaking to do things some time in the future. No, from day one, you rectify the

The post Australia mad to sell Santos without gas restructuring appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

In the 2022 state budget, the former Queensland Labor government blindsided the coal industry by unexpectedly introducing two new tiers of coal royalties. This included a top tier of 40% for coal prices above $ 300 per tonne, effectively a mild super-profits tax. The unexpected announcement was a stroke of political genius, as it caught the

The post Brilliant Queensland stares down coal lobby appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Once you add the balloons into the model, it makes forecasting easier overall--the forecast is always 'cold and dark, with minimal solar-driven convection.'

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY appears ready to crack. I would say this will be its last leg down before Fed cuts arrive and do the opposite later this year. AUD is being powered by the big short. Apparent in CFTC. Lead boots are not much help, though. I’m a seller into the next god leg higher. Oil bottomed

The post Big short powers Australian dollar higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:06 Source

Does this look to you like a dog who didn’t steal an extra-large cartoon of eggs? Does she have the air of aggrieved innocence one might expect from a dog wrongly accused of stealing and scoffing fifteen eggs while the other dog was out on his walk? Does that tummy look somewhat distended to you?

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets continue to discount all negative news, like the non-existent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and latched on to Federal Reserve Chair Powells dovish testimony in front of Congress overnight. Wall Street rallied over 1% higher while the USD was sold off again as Euro led the way while the Australian dollar found some

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 08:57 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Brisbane’s median home price has surged by 85% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. According to PropTrack, Brisbane’s median dwelling value was $889,000 in May 2025, the second-highest in the nation, behind Sydney. Brisbane dwelling values were already set to rise further owing to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary

The post Brisbane house prices are rigged to blow appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 07:24 Source

Protesters in Venice are claiming an "enormous victory" after US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos and his wedding guests were forced to "run away" from the city centre, moving their main celebration to another location.

The venues for the three-day party to mark the wedding of one of the world's richest men to TV presenter Lauren Sanchez were never officially revealed. 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 05:43 Source

We talk glibly about our [Australia's] future in Asia, but we are stuck in a US and UK media cul de sac.

The Washington consensus and our legacy media frames and conditions our thinking and actions. It promotes fear of Asia, the yellow peril.

An updated post from August 23, 2021

 

John Menadue

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 05:34 Source

Anyone with any knowledge of Iran's history and culture will know that it will not be bribed or bullied into doing what the West wants.

It has no reason to trust Western promises, and having endured the suffering of the Iran-Iraq War, is unlikely to buckle under any pressure, military or economic, that the West would be prepared to impose.

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