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Articles from The Tally Room

The declining major party vote

April 21, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

I’ve been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of political history. So much of electoral analysis is focused on the swings between one election and the next, and looking at the back and forth that take place over the term of a government.

Adjusting historic election results for boundary changes

April 19, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

If you’ve been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat over recent decades. It features a dotted green line, which is my estimate of how the modern 2022 electoral boundaries voted at every election since 2004.

In this blog post I will explain how to read these charts, and how I produced this data.

PNG creates new electorates

April 2, 2022 - 11:30 -- Admin

Papua New Guinea’s parliament has recently passed the first successfully redistribution in the nation since 1977. The decision will see seven new seats created at the 2022 election, and a further six in 2027. While it does slightly reduce the overall amount of malapportionment, it only makes a dent in the problem, and leaves many electorates much larger or smaller than the average.