Podcast #70: Rise of the independents
Ben is joined by Narelle Miragliotta and Stewart Jackson to discuss the rise of the Voices independents movement, and the Victorian seat of Casey.
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The declining major party vote
I’ve been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of political history. So much of electoral analysis is focused on the swings between one election and the next, and looking at the back and forth that take place over the term of a government.
Expanding the time frame on seat swings
In yesterday’s post I explained my dataset of election results from 2004-2019 adjusted for 2022 boundaries. In today’s post I use that data to explore how seats have changed their political position relative to the rest of the country over this period.
Adjusting historic election results for boundary changes
If you’ve been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat over recent decades. It features a dotted green line, which is my estimate of how the modern 2022 electoral boundaries voted at every election since 2004.
In this blog post I will explain how to read these charts, and how I produced this data.
Federal candidate update
With the election campaign now underway, I’ve done another update of my candidate list, which I posted about in February. You can view the whole list here.
Podcast #69: Labor and the Greens in the federal election
Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Griffith University and Rob Manwaring from Flinders University to discuss the relationship between Labor and the Greens and how it may play out in this federal election.
Election to be called – open thread
It appears that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, is on his way to visit the governor-general today to call the Australian federal election, apparently for May 21.
I’m actually in the inner south of Canberra today, watching the running festival.
Feel free to use this blog post as an open thread, or check out the Tally Room guide to the federal election.
Podcast #68: Polling and the federal election
Ben is joined by Peter Lewis from the Essential Poll to talk about the current state of polling in the lead up to the federal election, and to discuss the federal seat of Page.
Federal election guide unlocked
It looks likely that the federal election will be called this coming weekend, for the 14th or 21st of May.
With that, I’ve now unlocked my full federal election guide. It features profiles of all 151 House races and the eight Senate contests, including history, election results, candidates and maps.
PNG creates new electorates
Papua New Guinea’s parliament has recently passed the first successfully redistribution in the nation since 1977. The decision will see seven new seats created at the 2022 election, and a further six in 2027. While it does slightly reduce the overall amount of malapportionment, it only makes a dent in the problem, and leaves many electorates much larger or smaller than the average.