Over the course of this week I’ll be running through four categories of seats that seem interesting as we get closer to Saturday. Today, I’m analysing twelve classic Labor vs Liberal seats in the Sydney region.
I’ve identified ten Liberal seats and two Labor seats worth mentioning. These seats mostly lie in an arc from the south-east to the northern suburbs, arcing through the outer western suburbs.
New South Wales legislation sets a schedule for redistributions of Legislative Assembly electorates to be held once every two terms. We have had redistributions before the 1991, 1999, 2007, 2015 and 2023 elections. Yet there is a clause in the constitution that allows for one to be triggered sooner, if enough electorates deviate far enough away from the average for two straight months.
There’s a lot of talk about hung parliaments, but they’re not all the same. A potential hung parliament in New South Wales will play out quite differently depending on the relative balance of the major parties and who sits on that crossbench.
In this post I’m going to consider a number of different scenarios based on particular outcomes in clusters of seats, and how that might affect who is in a position to have power.
I’ve been an unusual number of councillors announcing their candidacy for the state election. It made me wonder, how many are actually running? How many are likely to win? And how does this compare to recent history?
I’m using the same methodology I used for yesterday’s post on gender. Seats are classified as safe or likely for a candidate or marginal for 2-3 candidates.
It’s a common topic on this blog that I analyse how many men and women are nominated for each party, but it’s not really the most important measure. Ultimately candidate nominations are simply a means to an end, which is the final elected parliament of representatives. So for today’s blog post I’m analysing the likely gender balance of the next NSW parliament.
In today’s episode Ben is joined by Peter Chen from the University of Sydney. They discuss the prospects for a hung parliament and the major campaign issues dominating the election.
There is a lot of speculation about the potential for a hung parliament in NSW, legitimately in my opinion.
In today’s post, the last examining preference flow data from 2019, I look at a number of datapoints that might tell us something about how the crossbenchers elected in 2019 might jump in the circumstances of a hung parliament.
As a follow up to last week’s series of articles on preference flows, I wanted to understand which voters end up in the two-party-preferred piles for Labor and the Coalition, and which ones exhaust.
So I took the two-party-preferred preference flows by party of first preference (as previously analysed in this blog post) and grouped them by the destination, not the origin.
Everyone including myself is closely focused on the NSW state election, but I wanted to draw a bit of attention to an upcoming redistribution, for the 25 seats in the NT Legislative Assembly.
Nominations were declared yesterday in the New South Wales state election. There has been a slight reduction in the number of candidates in the lower house. The ballot paper is slightly larger for the upper house, but the number of groups with a box above the line is down significantly.
There are 562 candidates for the Assembly, almost exactly the same as in 2019. This averages out to just over 6 candidates per seat.