Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the federal redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. We discuss the process, what has been proposed, the political impact of those proposals and how it might affect preselections, and why some of the maps are drawn as they are.
Former NSW treasurer Matt Kean has chosen today, NSW budget day, to announce that he will be retiring from state politics, thus triggering a by-election for his seat of Hornsby.
He has also said that he won’t run for federal politics, dismissing speculation about a challenge to federal Liberal MP Paul Fletcher in Bradfield.
One of the interesting changes in the NSW redistribution proposal was the decisive shift of Hume towards Sydney.
Looking at the proposed boundaries for the seat, I realised that they look quite similar to the boundaries of a seat that I was familiar with almost 20 years ago, but with a different name.
Following the publication of the proposals for the Victorian and WA redistributions, I put together two posts analysing different angles at a deeper level than the original analysis.
Rather than fully revisiting the topics, I thought I would just use one post to apply the same analysis to the NSW proposal, and also zoom out to the national level.
3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.
If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.
After the publication of the proposed boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia for the next federal election, I had a number of questions about how the boundaries would have looked on the 2019 votes, particularly in WA.
There was a big change in votes between 2019 and 2022 across Australia, but particularly in WA. There was a general swing to Labor, but this swing was much much bigger in WA, and the Labor vote is not expected to stay at that level.