Close seats tracking, part 1 – the conventional close races
At the time of writing on Monday evening, there appear to be 17 close seats worth following over the next few days.
By my reckoning there are three types of seats worth watching:
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Podcast #148: A record-breaking election
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of yesterday’s Australian federal election, which produced Labor’s best result since 1943. We talk about the close seats, how multi-party politics is transforming local electorate contests and what is likely to happen in the Senate.
Australia 2025 – Wrap-up of the night
Good morning, I have been writing this blog post after getting home to wrap my own head around the scale of the count. I expect I will have some issues with the website’s accessibility today, so some of this may also be posted over on Tally Room in Exile, my backup blog.
Election night open thread
Polls have just closed on the east coast.
You can discuss the election results here tonight.
I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.
I suspect the website may struggle with traffic tonight, but I am just going to let it cope as best it can.
Election day open thread
Polls have just opened on the east coast in today’s federal election.
I won’t be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.
I’ll put up another open thread at 6pm. I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.
Federal election prediction thread
I don’t have another idea for today’s blog post, so why don’t we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final predictions.
How wide is the hung parliament zone?
Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in the new parliament. Certainly there is a lot of talk about a hung parliament.
Podcast #147: What might a hung parliament look like?
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC’s Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss how a hung parliament might play out and the experience of riding Peter Dutton’s campaign bus. For our seat of the week we discuss the NSW seat of Werriwa.
How results play out across election night
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night and how the primary vote for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens shifts over the course of the night.
How do results vary between election day and early voting?
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two halves – one half voting before election day, through pre-poll voting, postal voting and remote booths, and the other half casting their vote on the day.