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How the redistributions would have looked with 2019’s results

June 12, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

After the publication of the proposed boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia for the next federal election, I had a number of questions about how the boundaries would have looked on the 2019 votes, particularly in WA.

There was a big change in votes between 2019 and 2022 across Australia, but particularly in WA. There was a general swing to Labor, but this swing was much much bigger in WA, and the Labor vote is not expected to stay at that level.

How the redistributions are shifting the margins

June 3, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Last Friday’s analysis tended to focus on two scales: either the level of the individual seat, or looking at the party totals across each state.

At the federal redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia, three seats had a change in party status: Bullwinkel was created as notional Labor seat, Higgins was abolished and Menzies flipped from Liberal to Labor.

Yes, this redistribution is taking a long time

May 20, 2024 - 12:05 -- Admin

Speculation about an early federal election never goes away, and I’ve noticed more recently in relation to the possibility of a federal election later this year.

While you can debate the political merits of such a decision, the current redistribution processes make it pretty much impossible to call an election in 2024, without triggering special mini-redistribution procedures which would produce severe inequity in electoral populations between seats.

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