Wall Street was almost unphased overnight by the dual NFP release as US unemployment jumped to a four year high, triggering a rally in US bonds, while the latest UK unemployment figures weren’t rosy either with speculation the BOE may move to easing its rates this week. The USD remains under duress against most of
The 2025-26 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) was released on Wednesday. The key economic forecasts are shown below. Headline Findings Deficit improvement: 2025/26 underlying cash deficit revised to $36.8bn (–1.3% of GDP), better than March’s forecast of $42.1bn (–1.5%). Still a sharp deterioration from the $10bn deficit in 2024/25 and surpluses in prior years.
From the Market Ear: Shorts “While short interest in aggregate is somewhat low, that for the average (median) stock remains very high.” (DB) The shorty gap “The median short interest (inverted in chart below) is aligned with very low earnings growth, even as median company earnings growth rose into the double digits in Q3.” Cash
The bond market has turned uber-hawkish following Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock’s guidance on interest rates, where she ruled out further rate cuts and warned that rates may need to go higher to tame stubbornly high inflation. “I don’t think there are interest rate cuts in the horizon for the foreseeable future”,
Silver goes ga ga while oil prices remain in a slump despite the new trade blockade against Venezuela announced by the Trump regime as most Asian share markets are beginning to bounce back from a rough start to the trading week. The dual US NFP print overnight showed a slumping US labour market that gave
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index has been released, showing that Australia’s forward-looking economic momentum has slowed, with the six‑month annualised growth rate easing to +0.16% in November from +0.32% in October. While still positive, the index signals subdued growth over the next 3–9 months, reflecting share market volatility, weaker consumer expectations, and softening labour market
The taxation arrangements around electric vehicles (EVs) are a reverse Robin Hood arrangement that extracts taxes from ordinary Australians to distribute to the rich. A case in point is the EV fringe benefits tax (FBT) exemption, which was introduced in 2022 to make EVs more affordable for employees through salary packaging and novated leases. Treasury
Overnight we saw the release of both the October and November US jobs reports which at first glance looked nominal but in reality show a worsening employment situations as jobs growth slows even as immigration goes into nearly reverse. A new 4 year high in the unemployment rate at 4.6% plus downward revisions on all
Recently, a social media follower shared the chart below showing housing starts versus population in the United States and asked what it would look like for Australia. To provide an easily accessible comparison, the numbers were converted into housing starts (i.e., housing commencements in Australia) per 100,000 people over the last 40 years. The analysis
Australia’s rental market is in crisis, with record-low vacancy rates and strong rental growth. As a result, the share of household income required to meet repayments on the median advertised rent was a record high in the September quarter: While the primary driver of Australia’s recent extreme rental inflation has been historically high net overseas