The biggest problem is the systemic long. Any decent shock gives VaR implosion. Fragile SPX futures basically reversing the bounce from yesterday. 6600 is the big short term level. The 50 day comes in right on that level. A close below, and 6500 is the next support, followed by the 100 day at 6400. A
This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement alongside its decision noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected
An MB reader has sent this excellent proposal for resolving the East Coast gas crisis by shutting down GLNG without creating sovereign risk. There’s a possible win/win/win scenario that could be negotiated Suitors for GLNG take a look at the books and run—I think the contingency liability not currently sitting on the Santos balance sheet
Wall Street is trying to continue its rebound from its Friday night slump while navigating a speech by Fed Chair Powell as other risk markets are still expecting another TACO trade setup when the Fat House eventually capitulates. Meanwhile the USD was unable to continue its nascent lift with most of the majors returning to
DXY is hovering. AUD dumped and pumped on tariff headlines. CNY has rolled. Gold to heaven, oil to hell. Metals turned casinos. RIO is breaking out of the big bear on the debasement trade. If it mined gold, I might agree. It doesn’t. EM dubious. Junk trying at the centre , not so much the
The latest batch of rental data from Cotality and SQM Research suggests that Australia’s rental market has tightened. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Cotality reported a capital city vacancy rate of 1.5% in September, which was 0.4% lower than a year ago and the lowest vacancy rate on record: The number
Asian share markets are still stumbling following some potential progress on the rare earth US-China trade war while local economic releases and the latest RBA minutes are not really supporting more rate cuts for now. Despite this the Australian dollar fell back again to its Friday night lows as the USD lifted against most of
The 12 months ending 30 September were volatile. But, after all was said and done, our international fund finished up 25%, our Australian fund finished up over 10%. Our tactical growth finished up over 14%. All of our funds look attractive relative to their benchmarks, especially as they were all significantly less volatile than the
The Market Ear has more. The Alchemist way Gold’s “unstoppable” upside trajectory continues. We have been pointing out the similarity with the early 2025 break out move for weeks. That triangle break out saw gold surge by around 28%. Apply the same percentage gain to the late August break out and we could reach around
It’s no secret that millions of Americans are struggling more today than they were prior to the pandemic. When one assesses metrics like consumer sentiment through the lens of individuals on the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, the impact becomes immediately clear. What is often less clear is exactly what lengths Americans are going