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Articles from MacroBusiness

Chinese Japanification “more extreme” than Japan

September 20, 2023 - 14:00 -- Admin

Goldman with a tidy note on the end of Chinese growth. China’s sluggish growth, nearly non-existent inflation, and low nominal interest rates this year raise the question of whether China’s economy could undergo “Japanification” in the coming years. In this note, we revisit the China-Japan comparison, examine the question “what made Japan Japan” in the

Australia’s apartment shortage worsens by the day

September 20, 2023 - 13:30 -- Admin

Australia’s unit & apartment completions have collapsed from a peak of 108,000 in 2017 to 63,000 in the year to March 2023: This is concerning given Australia’s population is currently growing at a record pace driven by unprecedented net overseas migration: Apartment rents are already soaring. Domain data shows that unit rents are rising seven

323 years of recessions

September 20, 2023 - 13:00 -- Admin

Deutsche with the note. I will post more when the full story comes to hand. This morning we’ve published the latest annual Long-Term Study, our flagship pieceof the year from my team. This year’s is called “The History (and Future) of Recessions”. This is the final part of a trilogy that started before the pandemic

Oil going to $120?

September 20, 2023 - 12:00 -- Admin

JPM with the note.  Oil prices are back up 27% since 2Q23, posing downside to growth • Some of the move owes to stronger demand (1/4), but a larger supply shock (3/4) will be a drag • Our model suggests global GDP could be damped by 0.5%-pt (ar) over two quarters if prices sustained •

Dan Andrews and Chris Minns fiddle while housing burns

September 20, 2023 - 11:30 -- Admin

NSW is fiddling: The $2.2 billion Housing and Infrastructure Plan includes: $1.5 billion to build infrastructure such as roads, parks, hospitals and schools to support the construction of new homes across Sydney, the Lower Hunter, Central Coast and the Illawarra $400 million reserved in Restart NSW for the new Housing Infrastructure Fund, to deliver infrastructure

Leading index projects endless per capita recession

September 20, 2023 - 11:01 -- Admin

Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate still negative at –0.5%. Negative reads have now persisted since August 2022. Indicator correctly predicted growth slowdown in 2023. Growth outlook for next 3–9 months remains poor with per capita GDP declines likely to continue. The economy continues to move through an extended period of weakness. Despite