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Articles from MacroBusiness

Macro Afternoon

November 7, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

Asian equities are not doing well as markets start agitate over AI amid tonight’s looming US jobs report with the recent strength in the USD about to be tested. Continued volatility over trade wars amid the challenge to the Trump regime’s tariffs in the US Supreme Court are not helping either. The Australian dollar remains

Australia’s real wage depression

November 7, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

Australians have suffered the deepest decline in real wages in recorded history. As of the June quarter of 2025, Australian real wages were tracking 6.0% below their June 2020 peak, at roughly the same level as December 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which contains

AI job shock begins in America

November 7, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

The US jobs market is being buffeted by a number of forces. reduced government spending; tarrif shocks to margins recouped through labour efficiencies; investment uncertainty owing to the orange madman; and AI. The BLS labour market data is still down, but Revelio has a decent correlation with the NFP (roughly 0.75%), and it just printed

RBA still delusional on unemployment

November 7, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is below the current unemployment rate of 4.5%: Thus,

Stocks blow off the froth

November 7, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

We’ve suddenly lurched from AI is unstoppable to a growth scare as jobs data weakens. The Market Ear. Wishing & hoping & thinking & praying AI mentions on earnings calls have exploded tenfold. Retail traders are back chasing the Mag7. Tech giants are borrowing record sums to fund data centers. For now, optimism is profit

YIMBYs deliver fake property boom

November 7, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

The Grattan Institute was at it again this week, claiming that Australia could magically solve its housing shortage if governments only permitted three-storey buildings to be allowed on any residential block in any suburb. “The key problem is that state and territory land-use planning systems say ‘no’ to new housing by default, and ‘yes’ only

Iron ore at the cliff’s edge

November 7, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

The ferrous jaws must close. CIAS output for the last ten days of October crashed 9.8% with steel profitability. CISA steel inventories fell even faster, down 11.8% to 14.63mt. Yet steel could still not get a bid. The MacroMicro series, the source of which is not disclosed, rose in the past week. MySteel data for

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