Morgan Stanley with the note. The uncertainty of application of tariffs is one reason we have continually called for patience to see the affect of tariffs in hard data. Our models predict that inflation will take approximately four months to see the full effects of tariffs and potentially even eight moths for growth to react
Just imagine. You are a younger Australian, perhaps nearing the end of secondary school or nearing the completion of your university degree. Perhaps you are beavering away as a young tradie, have a half-decent gig with a large retailer, or are considering joining the freelance circuit as an IT or healthcare specialist. Odds are, you
Over the weekend, OPEC+ production was raised of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, above the initial projection of 411,000 bpd. With the goal of regaining market share and stabilizing prices, this action quickens the rollback of the voluntary supply reduction in 2023. Even with this rise, OPEC+’s spare capacity is still projected to
With the release of the latest labour account figures, it was revealed that the total number of filled jobs in the economy contracted for the first time since the March quarter of 2021. In the years since the Global Financial Crisis and in particular since the onset of the pandemic, the Australian economy has become
In the nation’s collective consciousness there are few issues that occupy as much mental headspace and backyard BBQ conversation as interest rates. For some, each rate cut is treated like nectar from the Greek Gods atop Mount Olympus. After all, over the last decade the pathway to greater levels of household disposable income for mortgage
Stocks only go up is back. The Market Ear. Nets caught up Net leverage for hedge funds have kind of caught up with gross leverage – when looking from a percentile perspective. We have now arrived at generally “stretched” levels. Source: JPM PI More on the addition in net The net leverage climb steadily over
Ferrous lifted again Friday. Some charts show significant churn in the underlying state of the market. The first chart is difficult one to swallow. Steel production is down 2-3%. Chinese iron ore production is flat. Some of this is the continued orientation towards BOF versus EAF, but not enough to explain the chart. Some MySteel
Be careful what you vote for. The Australian. Anthony Albanese has given a speech that will heighten fears of a growing strategic and political disconnect between Australia and Washington. …“Our alliance with the US ought to be remembered as a product of Curtin’s leadership in defence and foreign policy, not the extent of it,” he
Friday night was a subdued session as Wall Street was closed for the (last?) 4th of July celebration while European shares took a drop as the expectations of entrenched tariffs from the Trump regime’s deadline this week look set. The early and surprisingly upbeat NFP print gave the USD a small reprieve in the previous
DXY is stable, but the EUR is in a hurry. AUD is not. CNY plods on. OPEC boosted big over the weekend. Oil is to suffer. Metals flamed out. Miners meh. EM is looking a bit like its old self. Junk meh. US markets were shut for Independence Day, but the falling dollar is starting