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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 4, 2023 - 00:05 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data on Tuesday, which revealed that the number of loans provided for the purchase or construction of new homes fell to their lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008: “In the three months to August 2023 lending for the purchase or construction of a

The post Australian housing construction crashes at worst possible time appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 21:28 Source

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Club Troppo Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 17:51 Source

I find it hard to understand how passionate some folks are about voting Yes or voting No. Not because I do not understand passion, but because the cases for either position are so unconvincing.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 17:26 Source

The Buffalo Ranges, 1864, Nicholas Chevalier, NGV   AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225

The post Macro Afternoon: 3 October 2023 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 17:21 Source

It’s a movie we’ve seen over and over again in US politics. Centrists engage in respectful discussion with a thoughtful conservative[1], only to discover they are actually talking to a dishonest troll. Yet, just like Charlie Brown lining up to kick Lucy’s football, they keep coming back for another try.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 15:47 Source

There was a decade of popular uprisings from 2010 until the global pandemic in 2020. These uprisings shook the foundations of the global order. They denounced corporate domination, austerity cuts and demanded economic justice and civil rights. There were nationwide protests in the United States centered around the 59-day Occupy encampments.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 15:01 Source

Perth regulator Western Australia AEMO WEM capacity market rules breach - optimised

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 15:01 Source

This is both optimistic and troubling. Fairfax media reports that “China has put the world’s oil cartel into a death spiral“. On the one hand we need oil to die. Like, yesterday. Anyone who’s paying any attention to the state of the world’s climate must understand this by now. We’re not just talking about sea…

The post Crash and Burn appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 14:35 Source

Nothing new except the language is simpler.  At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.00 per cent. Interest rates have been increased by 4 percentage points since May last year. The higher interest rates are working to establish

The post Simplified RBA statement retains tightening bias appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 14:35 Source

Nothing new except the language is simpler.  At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.00 per cent. Interest rates have been increased by 4 percentage points since May last year. The higher interest rates are working to establish

The post Simplified RBA statement retains easing bias appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 14:09 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 14:00 Source

Over the last three years, Australia has experienced the largest ever boom in mortgage refinances. This is boom is illustrated in the next chart, which is derived from Tuesday’s mortgage origination data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): As you can see, total annual mortgage refinances have increased from roughly $100 billion in 2019

The post The Great Mortgage Refinancing Boom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 13:30 Source

Iron ore is toast, says Australia via the Office of the Chief Economist. Spot iron ore prices have been volatile in the September quarter, but have generally moderated since the start of the year, driven by slowing global economic growth and China’s property sector weakness. Australian export volumes remain strong, with further greenfield supply from

The post Australia: Iron ore is toast appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 13:00 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics last week revealed that value of household deposit accounts decreased by $6 billion in the June quarter, with it being the first decline in 16 years: “This was the first fall in deposit balances since the Global Financial Crisis and indicates that the household sector was tapping into cash reserves

The post Australian households are hurting financially appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 12:57 Source

Apparently, Dan Tehan was on QandA last night. I only know this because I’ve picked it up on social media because I’ve been forbidden to watch the show for the past ten years or so, owing to my tendency to shout verbal obscenities at some of the guests and my wife convinced me that this…

The post The Admirable Demonstration of Dan Tehan And Other Cunning Liberal Plans! appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 12:30 Source

US lending continues to fall. Bank lending was soft last week: We are still falling year-on-year: Small and large banks aren’t lending: So, where is the economic slowdown? Deutsche has a crack at it. A decade of QE was supposed to generate a massive bubble in the market that was going to burst with this

The post Where is the US recession? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 12:10 Source

Over the weekend, the Albanese Government announced that it would attempt to stem the flow of non-genuine international students coming to Australia for work and residency via: Banning colleges that target international students from paying commissions to agents; Implementing a series of “risk indicators” as part of a monitoring framework that will track student attendance;

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 11:59 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released data on new mortgage originations for the month of August, which shows a solid rebound in investor mortgage commitments: Overall mortgage commitments rose by 2.2% in August, with owner-occupier commitments rising by 2.6% and investor mortgage commitments rising 1.6%. Over the year, overall mortgage commitments fell by

The post Property investors drive mortgage rebound appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 11:30 Source

Mad King is the energy gaslighter-in-chief: Resources Minister Madeleine King has warned that decreasing gas supply faster than demand will lead to “shortages, supply disruptions and high prices”, while also “worsening poverty and inequality”, launching a strong economic defence for the fuel source’s role in underpinning the nation’s clean energy transition. Really? What about the

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 11:05 Source

Kiata wind farm atmos

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 11:00 Source

According to the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population figures, NSW experienced the largest intake of net overseas migrants in the country’s history, with an unprecedented 153,400 net migrants arriving in the state in the year to March 2023: At the same time as NSW’s population is surging via record immigration, actual dwelling

The post Sydney faces dire housing shortage appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 10:39 Source

My mates and I, growing up in our happy, homogenous and very white suburbia in the 1960s and 70s, would probably not have met an indigenous Australian but for playing footy. Without our great game, we might, at least as kids and teenagers, have remained stuck in the fearful ignorance that was pretty common at the time.

 

By Andrew Fraser

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 10:30 Source

Australia’s extraordinary house price rebound rolled on in September, with CoreLogic data showing that values have risen by 7.2% at the 5-city aggregate level after bottoming in February 2023. The rebound has also been broad-based with all five major capital city markets recording value rises: PropTrack’s property index has also recorded a strong rebound with

The post Supply shortage drives house prices higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 10:26 Source

By Richard Whitington   Fun Referendum Facts Fun Referendum Facts #1: The ballot paper for a referendum has just one box on it and you must write “Yes” or “No” in it. If you use a tick or a cross or a number (1), your vote will be invalid. Fun Referendum Facts #2: The 24-year gap…

The post Fun Facts, Dates, Myths/Misconceptions appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 10:00 Source

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely tipped by economists to keep interest rates on hold at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, which will be Michele Bullock’s first as governor. There are good reasons to keep rates on hold, including: Despite the lift in petrol prices, core inflation (excluding volatile items) is still trending lower.

The post Mortgage rate rises will prevent RBA from hiking again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear with the latest on stock positioning.  Goldman sees 2nd chance opportunity in Magnificent 7 Goldman says that the divergence between falling valuations and improving fundamentals represents an opportunity for investors to buy. 1. Consensus sales and earnings expectations for the largest tech stocks have been upgraded since the start of August, the

The post Magnificent 7 the last men standing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 09:30 Source

Referendum results are made up of building blocks of states – four states are required to pass a referendum. While a successful referendum also requires a majority nationwide, that has never been the deciding factor. It’s always been about the four states.

In this post I’m analysing which states have tended to vote together, and the combinations of states that have appeared throughout the twentieth century.

There have been 44 referendums, but eighteen of those have involved all six states voting together. On eleven occasions, all six states have voted No. On another seven cases, they have all voted Yes.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 09:07 Source

WA - host to the world's biggest standalone grid - has ushered in major reforms to its Wholesale Ele

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 09:00 Source

Finally, there was a better Voice poll: More Australians intend to vote no than yes in the voice referendum on 14 October, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. But the new poll has recorded the first positive shift towards yes in several months, as the historic referendum campaign enters the decisive stretch. The latest

The post Coalition can follow Dan Tehan to power appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 3, 2023 - 07:40 Source

DXY is a moon rocket: AUD was smashed back to the lows: CNY is not free-floating: The oil lomg was crushed. Woe is gold: Dirt washed away: Big miners flushed: EM is at the low of the range: Junk broke. Stocks beware: As the bull steepening runs wild: OVersold stocks held up OK, but not

The post Australian dollar slaughtered by the machines appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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