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THE BLOT REPORT Saturday, May 24, 2025 - 20:59 Source

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is an income support policy under which all individuals receive a regular unconditional cash payment from the government, regardless of employment status or income level. In other words, every adult citizen (and sometimes children, at a lesser amount) is granted a basic stipend periodically, with no means test or work requirement attached. The primary goals of a UBI are to ensure a minimum standard of living, reduce poverty, and simplify the social safety net by replacing or complementing targeted and more complex welfare programs1.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 24, 2025 - 18:59 Source

A mainstay of the Ninefax Pro Population Ponzi lobby, Shane Wright regularly depicts a world of skills shortages, investment crashes due to absent demand, and crypto Marxists proposing radical reform. We have had Shane on in the past, examining his bogus claim that international student numbers have no influence on rents. This week, Shane teed

The post MSM dooms Australia to more of the same appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Saturday, May 24, 2025 - 13:55 Source

The AEC finished the distribution of preferences for Bradfield late on Friday night, after a fascinating day that started with teal independent Nicolette Boele leading by 28 votes and ending with her 8 votes behind. This was a shift of 48 votes from Boele’s 40-vote margin at the end of the indicative 2CP count on Monday afternoon.

This has automatically triggered a recount, as the margin is less than 100 votes. The recount will commence on Monday.

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Club Troppo Saturday, May 24, 2025 - 00:44 Source

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 24, 2025 - 00:05 Source

International Reading: Trump Is Slowly but Surely Killing U.S. Economy, Experts Warn – New Republic Walmart announces 1,500 job cuts after Trump tells US retail giant to ‘eat the tariffs’ – Economic Times Americans favor labor unions over big business now more than ever – EPI The Largest Upward Transfer of Wealth in American History

The post Weekend reading and MB media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets in Asia are somewhat mixed in the last session of the trading week as they absorb the burgeoning bond troubles and the passing of the Trump regime’s tax bill in the House of Reps that looks to enshrine a permanent decline in the US fiscal position. In currency markets, the USD is back

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Friday, May 23, 2025 - 15:40 Source

My latest in The East Asia Forum

The May 2025 federal election campaign was characterised by a studious avoidance of the main issues facing Australia, most notably the country’s future relationships with the United States and China. Canberra should confront the quandaries redefining the US relationship, initiated by President Donald Trump’s second term. Washington’s radical reorientation shows no sign of reversing even after 2028, when Trump is due to leave office.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 15:18 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 14:46 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 14:38 Source

Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf (NWS) gas project Western Australia

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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 14:13 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 13:59 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 13:38 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 13:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Albanese government proposes to tax people on gains from any assets kept in their superannuation accounts, beginning with those with a balance of $3 million or more, without indexation. Industry superannuation funds, self-managed funds, investors, business leaders, and even ex-trade unionists have asked Labor to remove the unrealised component of the tax and modify

The post How to fix superannuation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Melbourne has been the worst-performing housing market among major capital cities since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March 2020 and April 2025, Melbourne dwelling values rose by 16.2%, versus 43.3% growth at the combined capital city level. The underperformance of Melbourne’s housing market has seen its median house price fall to cyclical lows

The post Melbourne house prices poised for strong rebound appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Global bond yield suppression has been a constantly favourable backdrop for equity investors since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Every attempt to withdraw support has led to the financial markets convulsing until policy makers are forced to U-turn. So what should we make of recent tumultuous events in Japan? I have always exhorted clients to

The post Albert Edwards: Japan is about to blow up the world appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Q1 2025 wage price index, which revealed that Australian real wages were tracking at Q4 2011 levels, 6.1% below their Q2 2020 peak: The OECD also released data showing that Australian real per capita household disposable income was tracking 7.6% below its Q1 2022 peak

The post Australia’s long, painful income recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The Market Ear on a fear that has no modern precedent. When does it start to hurt? GS on the rates rise: 1. Watch 10yr @ 5%: That’s the psychological level where most expect yields to start weighing on equities. 2. But it’s the speed, not just the level: A move above 4.7% before end-May

The post Is the era of stocks over? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Australian Automobile Association has published the Electric Vehicle Index for Q1 2025. The data paints a picture of an industry struggling to gain a foothold, despite generous subsidies and incentives from the federal government (read taxpayers). In Q1 2025, only 17,914 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were sold in Australia, down 29.9% from 25,552 in

The post EV sales would collapse without subsidies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:48 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:30 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Last week, Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) released data showing that a record 64.4% of homes in Sydney were valued at $1 million or above. This compares to 41.6% of homes valued above $1 million across the combined capital cities. According to SQM Research, Sydney’s median asking price for houses hit $2,040,000 in May, an increase of

The post Sydney challenges for world’s most expensive housing market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:30 Source

For today’s post I am looking at how the Muslim vote changed, using some techniques I’ve previously used to look at voters of Chinese and Indian ancestry in past votes.

At this election we have seen a lot of speculation about Muslim voters switching from Labor, voting for Muslim independents, but also possibly for the Greens, with the war in Gaza being a major influence on that trend. We have seen Muslim groups cease to invite major party politicians to Islamic events that they would have previously attended regularly.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:04 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:00 Source

DXY held on last night. AUD the reverse. Still trending higher. Lead boots going nowhere. OIl and gold sank. Metals no byueno. Junk worried. Yild relief. Yield relief. Could not save stocks. It’s a day-by-day proposition right now, but I think TS Lombrd probably has the trend right. America is not about to lose its

The post Australian dollar to surpass 70 cents appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Friday, May 23, 2025 - 10:00 Source

A 5% efficiency gain at the cost of a 99% efficiency loss

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets were relatively sanguine overnight as the Trump regime’s new “Tax” Deal (aka blowing out the deficit forever) passed while the latest flash PMIs suggested a slight uptick in confidence in the US despite the tariff chaos in the last month. Wall Street was up at one stage but managed to give back almost

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Canadian analyst Ben Rabidoux posted the below graphic on Twitter (X), asking whether Canada should place a country cap on its permanent residency intake: The graphic shows that India has dominated Canada’s permanent residency intake, with around 560,000 admissions between 2020 and 2024. Rabidoux added that Canada had more than 400,000 permanent and temporary arrivals

The post Should Australia cap migration by country? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 23, 2025 - 00:05 Source

In June 2024, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver presented the following chart estimating that Australia’s housing shortage was about to exceed 200,000 homes: Oliver explained via Twitter (X) that “underlying demographic demand (driven by strong population growth) continues to run well ahead of new housing supply (constrained by capacity and cost issues, etc.), and is

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