The ferrous jaws must close. CIAS output for the last ten days of October crashed 9.8% with steel profitability. CISA steel inventories fell even faster, down 11.8% to 14.63mt. Yet steel could still not get a bid. The MacroMicro series, the source of which is not disclosed, rose in the past week. MySteel data for
Weak job market signals kicked the DXY rally in the teeth. AUD fell anyway on growth worries. CNY up. Gold is trying to base. AI metals were mixed. Miners popped. EM too. Junk is holding. Bonds rallied after dodgy US jobs data. Stocks are blowing the froth off. Adding to a potential reversal in
The Australian right is tearing itself apart over net zero. This is so foolish, and the answer is so simple. In fact, the party took the policy to the last election. The only reason this fight is still happening is that the energy transition is failing on affordability. This is giving climate and energy sceptics
Overnight saw the fear around the AI bubble rise again as Wall Street cratered, but also some reality crept in as private job data indicated more job cuts than growth in the US economy as the bite from the government shutdown continues to be felt. Meanwhile the Bank of England held fire in its latest
One month ago, I argued that the Australian Treasury’s modelling of Labor’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers was proof that Treasury had become a propaganda arm of the federal government. Under Labor’s First Home Guarantee scheme, which came into effect at the beginning of October, virtually all first home buyers can purchase a
Asian equities are doing well as markets start to price the possibility that the US tariffs maybe reversed following initial comments from the US Supreme Court challenge, although that institution is as compromised as Congress so don’t hold your breath. Only local stocks failed to perform well with the USD still firm against most of
The New Zealand economy continues to push through its housing bust and economic downturn. Yesterday, unemployment came in at 5.3% for the September quarter. The participation rate continues to fall to 70.3% as jobs become more scarce, holding down the headline unemployment rate. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the underutilisation rate
A new study, entitled “Perverse policy incentives and inferior economic outcomes” has exposed the failings of Australia’s migration system, particularly the student visa system. The study’s abstract is presented below: Between 1999 and 2012, Australia enacted a raft of policies that advantaged overseas students when applying for permanent residency, through the so-called 880 visa series. These policies
The Market Ear on a market trying to find sanity. Muted fear The sell-off has stretched across several sessions, yet volatilities have remained orderly, a stark contrast to October’s sharp spike. The VIX reaction so far is muted, a “fearless” unwind where complacency lingers and volatility still refuses to show up. With little fear The
For a long time, I have bewailed the rise of fake left and its obsession with culture war issues like genitals, Palestine and racism. The substitution of this grab bag of identity politics for issues of class has led directly to the rise of the populist right in the shape of Donald Trump as American