Generative AI has created a gold rush today, but that rush has not yet grown into either a productivity boom or a financial bubble. There are good reasons to think this rush could become either one.Which one is just around the corner? Could it be both? In case you forgot, we did live through a productivity bonanza that morphed into a financial bubble during the commercialization of the Internet.
The commercial future of AI will soon be bigger than the actions of any firm, individual, research team, or open-source community. In the near term, a massive tailwind of potential use cases and nearly completed projects will determine the rate of progress in creating value for users and suppliers. Still, the source of the next frontier commercial breakthrough and the distribution of profits look undetermined and, for reasons to be explained, underdetermined.
Large language models (LLMs) have overrun commercial markets, more like a tsunami than a normal technical wave of interest. The topic is everywhere –news stories, blogs, podcasts, startup investments, analyst reports, hackathons, and government announcements. A virtual frenzy surrounds it.
It is time to review the year in digital technology. Oh, what fun! As with prior reviews, we will arrange this review like an award ceremony.
There are three criteria for an award:
WE CAN GET THEM TO CHANGE — PLEASE SIGN THE PETITION.
When I (or someone else in my household) orders something from Amazon, i get emailed a receipt. This is useful because then I can see what was ordered, whether it is the right thing or shout at someone who ordered something we already have.
Before August 2020, they looked like this.
It is that time of the year again! Time to review the digital events of 2020 and recognize achievements. Your humble correspondent has no idea how to do this at a grand scale without making a mockery of it. If the post can skewer Hollywood at the same time, then all the better.
News today that my PhD Supervisor, Paul Milgrom, won the Nobel prize for economics. He won it with his PhD Supervisor, Bob Wilson. Both were long overdue for the honor.
Take a step back from the daily details of events. Compare the recession unfolding in the United States at this moment with the two previous downturns. Today’s economic events share a surprising set of common features with the dot-com boom and bust of 1997 to 2001, and fewer similarities with the financial meltdown of 2008-09. For reasons I will explain later, we ought to be thankful for the latter.