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Podcast #122: Picking over the proposed federal redistributions

June 21, 2024 - 06:00 -- Admin

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the federal redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. We discuss the process, what has been proposed, the political impact of those proposals and how it might affect preselections, and why some of the maps are drawn as they are.

Further NSW redistribution analysis

June 17, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Following the publication of the proposals for the Victorian and WA redistributions, I put together two posts analysing different angles at a deeper level than the original analysis.

Rather than fully revisiting the topics, I thought I would just use one post to apply the same analysis to the NSW proposal, and also zoom out to the national level.

How the redistributions would have looked with 2019’s results

June 12, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

After the publication of the proposed boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia for the next federal election, I had a number of questions about how the boundaries would have looked on the 2019 votes, particularly in WA.

There was a big change in votes between 2019 and 2022 across Australia, but particularly in WA. There was a general swing to Labor, but this swing was much much bigger in WA, and the Labor vote is not expected to stay at that level.

How the redistributions are shifting the margins

June 3, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Last Friday’s analysis tended to focus on two scales: either the level of the individual seat, or looking at the party totals across each state.

At the federal redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia, three seats had a change in party status: Bullwinkel was created as notional Labor seat, Higgins was abolished and Menzies flipped from Liberal to Labor.