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Articles from The Tally Room

Comparing the MRPs

February 16, 2025 - 17:37 -- Admin

British polling company YouGov published their first MRP report for the 2025 election cycle, becoming the second company to publish an MRP during this election cycle. For this post I wanted to run a comparison of the two most recent MRPs from two different companies. The two polls produced similar top-level figures, both in terms of seats and votes, but at the individual seat level there are some pretty significant differences.

WA election guide unlocked

February 4, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

We are now just over a month out from the Western Australian state election. The writs will be issued tomorrow, and nominations close next week.

This seemed like the right time to unlock my state election guide for everyone to read. The guide has been an exclusive for members of the Tally Room who sign up via Patreon.

Port Macquarie set up for Liberal-Nationals contest after retirement

January 22, 2025 - 17:56 -- Admin

A by-election is incoming for the NSW north coast state seat of Port Macquarie.

This seat had previously been a safe Nationals seat, although it had fallen into independent hands in the 2000s. This changed in 2000, when sitting MP Leslie Williams quit the party over a dispute between the Coalition parties over koala laws, and joined the Liberal Party.

Williams was re-elected as a Liberal in 2023, despite a strong challenge from the local mayor as the Nationals candidate.

Understanding the different redistribution methodologies

December 20, 2024 - 16:53 -- Admin

The AEC published a fact sheet today with their estimates of margins for each electorate changed by the recently-completed federal redistributions.

There are a few pretty big differences between their estimates and my own, and I wanted to explain what I think is going on. The AEC were able to provide me with some of those estimates in advance to try and understand what is going on.

Werribee by-election due soon in Victoria

December 17, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

A state by-election will need to be held in early 2025 for the western Melbourne seat of Werribee. This by-election was triggered by the retirement yesterday of Tim Pallas, a long-serving Labor minister who has served as Treasurer since 2014.

Werribee lies on the western fringe of Melbourne and has always been a Labor seat. But this is the kind of seat that could flip at a by-election. We’ll have to see how the campaign plays out.

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