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Articles from The Tally Room

How the vote split between the early vote and election day

June 23, 2025 - 09:15 -- Admin

Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those cast on election day. 55.7% of votes were cast early, with just 43.6% casting their votes on the day.

For today’s post I am looking at how those voters actually voted, and how it’s changed over time.

How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed

June 20, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across the country.

For this post, I have produced a number of charts which show the distribution of seats by two-party-preferred result, and also by two-party-preferred swing. I also attempt to chart out the two-candidate-preferred swings in non-classic seats, or at least those which have a valid swing compared to 2022.

How seats changed relative to Australia in 2025

June 19, 2025 - 09:15 -- Admin

I’ve previously posted a number of times before about the dataset I have compiled of election results since 2004, adjusted for 2025 electoral boundaries.

Most recently, prior to the election, I specifically did a comparison of the 2007 and 2022 electoral map: two elections with similar two-party-preferred votes and a similar number of seats with a two-party-preferred majority for each major party.

What might the 2PP be in Bradfield?

June 12, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate. In seats where the two-candidate-preferred vote is not Labor vs Coalition, they do the count later. With 35 seats now “non-classic”, the AEC needs to conduct those notional 2PP counts in more and more seats.

The House-Senate vote difference

June 11, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

While there’s a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they’ve never voted exactly the same. For a start, there are more options on the Senate ballot paper than the House ballot paper. Small parties will not run in all House seats (sometimes they run in very few) and thus can only attract Senate votes in many seats. This means the bigger parties have traditionally done better in the House, where they have less competition.

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