Labor won a large two-party-preferred vote, yet looks set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. For most of modern Australian political history, a two-party-preferred vote of 53.6% (as the ABC currently projects) would comfortably win a majority.
Ben is joined again by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss this weekend’s federal by-election in the seat of Aston.
At the end of election night, Labor had definitively won 45 seats, but was expected to pick up enough extra seats to win a majority (requiring 47 seats). As of Sunday lunchtime they were leading in 49 seats. This had dropped to 47 when I was analysing the results yesterday, but it looked like there were 3-4 others where Labor was in a good position to catch up.
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of the NSW state election.
We are now starting to get a substantial sample of votes for the Legislative Council, and it’s giving us some sense of who is likely to win. But the sample is far from complete, and the incompleteness of the sample could make a real difference to where parties stand.
There were a lot of parallels between the NSW result and last year’s federal election result. On a Labor vs Coalition basis, the result was decisive (although NSW Labor won the 2PP by quite a bit more than federal Labor). But this translated into a slim Labor majority, with a record crossbench.
Polls have just closed in New South Wales.
I won’t be running a liveblog tonight, but you can follow me by listening in to ABC Radio’s coverage on local radio stations in New South Wales (including ABC Radio Sydney), ABC News Radio or online. I’ve embedded a player below so you can listen along.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with analysis of the results.
Polls have just opened for election day in New South Wales. I won’t be regularly updating today but I wanted to give an update on the early voting stats. There’ll be an open thread posted at 6pm, but tonight I will be analysing the results on ABC Radio (local radio in NSW and News Radio nationally) – so check that out!
Most of the media attention tends to focus on the lower house, but voters will be casting two ballots, and the Legislative Council is also very important.
There are fifteen groups running for the Legislative Council with a box above the line – they are really the only groups with any chance of winning a seat.
Today I’m looking into the seats of interest in regional New South Wales that aren’t just a simple Labor vs Coalition contest.
I’ve identified seven seats involving independents, Greens and a Liberal-National contest.