MUFG has done a good takedown. How to understand Q1 and March data? Key Points 1.The economy is off to a good start in 2024, with Q1 delivering a 5.3%yoy real GDP growth. The 1.6%quarter-on-quarter sequential growth of real GDP in Q1 was the highest sequential growth since 2015.01 However, the performance of key indicators
RBC makes the point I have been making for several months now. Gold has decoupled from DXY and real interest rates, its traditional price drivers: Gold prices have rallied further, and while the evidence doespoint to continued strong central bank interest, Chinese demand, and strong physical interest broadly, these are not usually the most price
A terrible opposition can do wonders for a disastrous government. In my view, the Albanese Government would be 10 points if it had competent competition. It is undoubtedly the worst administration I have ever lived under. Instead, it is marginally ahead: The following answer appears to have been recorded wrongly: Three-quarters of LMP voters support
As noted many times, when a commodity price crashes, the first thing that happens is that the aggressively anti-government mining sector turns to the government for a handout. Because it happens everywhere, it only achieves a race to the bottom for whatever commodity price it affects, as all governments cut costs to bet on the
Oh, Littlepenis: The Liberals and the Nationals are at odds over the selection of six sites for proposed nuclear facilities, delaying the release of the Coalition’s signature energy blueprint. Nationals MPs told this masthead that leader David Littleproud said at the most recent party room meeting he would not allow the Liberals to dictate the
The ANZ CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report has asked whether 40% of gross household income on a mortgage is the new 30% of gross household income on a mortgage: ARE 40’S THE NEW 30’S FOR MORTGAGE SERVICEABILITY? The rapid increase in the cash rate target, and subsequent mortgage rate rises, have squeezed borrowing capacity and affordability
RIO plans to ship the first ore from Simandou in late 2025 and ramp up to 60mt over 30 months. But that is only half of the Pilbara killer’s capacity. The other half is owned by a consortium of opaque Singaporean and Chinese firms in league with the Guinean junta, delightfully branded “Winning Consortium Simandou”.
If you don’t fix the gas market, it will erupt with every global energy shock. As oil rumbles on mid-east tensions, it is dragging up global LNG prices despite an immense glut. The NW Europe LNG marker is at $15.60Gj. The Japan/Korea LNG marker is at $16.40Gj. Australian spot gas prices, which determine electricity prices,
The Market Ear is bearish now. Eerie similarity JPM’s excellent Positioning Intelligence team thinks that there’s quite a few similarities observed so far in April to the dynamics of August last year. 1. A market pull-back post almost 30% gains 2. A similar magnitude of declines by this point MTD 3. Rising yields / resurfacing
Victoria is the nation’s most indebted state, with the lowest credit rating. S&P Global projects Victoria’s debt to inflate to $247.2 billion by 2027, up from $55.2 billion in 2019, making it the worst-performing state in Australia: Victoria’s deteriorating fiscal position is built on waste. Victoria’s “Big Build” infrastructure projects are running over time and