For years I thought it would prove to be our downfall. The immense borrowing that our banks did offshore to leverage mining income into the great property bubble. Largely this was a failure of imagination because I never thought we’d be able to do QE without a collapsing currency. But then the pandemic came and
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Victoria’s fourth hard lockdown has extended the Australian Labor Party’s two-party preferred poll lead, according to Roy Morgan. During the Victorian lockdown in early June, support for the ALP is 51% on a two-party preferred basis, up 0.5% points since March 2021 and increasing their lead over the L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) despite
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Readers will know that we are of the view that China has entered a new round deleveraging and economic restructuring that will crash commodity prices in due course. This plan is two-pronged. It aims to slow the development sector to end overbuilding. And it aims to deleverage local governments as well. I have already discussed
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One of the most asinine COVID restrictions that will continue into next week is the banning of gyms. Gyms were singled-out and banned from reopening in Regional Victoria last week, despite no reported COVID cases, and they will be singled out again in Melbourne when it reopens at midnight tonight. As happened last year when
The post Gyms the forgotten victim of Victoria’s lockdown appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo. It’s been far too long since the Pascometer last registered a redline moment. Almost so long that some readers will not even be acquainted with one of MB’s former favourite contrarian indicators. Today the mechanism returns with a vengeance to redline on a subject for which it has zero expertise: China. To
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The ferrous complex was firm yesterday with a broad rally on a delayed reaction to Tuesday’s news about more Brazilian mine suspensions. Spot was up. Paper flat overnight. Steel rallied: Chinese port inventories are at 127.65, adequate only: Not much else to say. I still think that the risk of an EOFY sell-off is high
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For years Hellbourne has traded on bogus global liveability indexes. Twenty years ago it was a great city of wide boulevards and uncluttered infrastructure. Even the terrible weather, expressed most commonly in an endless grey lid, seemed a plus as it drove a marvellously creative indoors culture made possible by fantastically cheap everything. But since
The post Stupid liveability index rates Hellbourne top ten appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Its a big waiting game out in the risk complex right now as traders position for tonight’s US inflation report, with Wall Street stalling again overnight. Bond markets however are rallying with a big move in 10 year Treasuries that seems to be presaging a robust inflation print while the USD is also slowly firming
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Forex is still range trading as we await tomorrow’s inflation numbers. But bond markets have already made their call. Yields have broken down as markets sell the inflation fact and buy into the MB script. DXY was firm as EUR eased: Australian dollar fell against everything: Gold may be rolling. Oil ain’t! Base metals have
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The AFR reported that the proportion of landlords negatively gearing rental properties fell to 58.6% in 2018-19, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) statistics. This was the lowest level on record and well down on the peak of 69.6% in 2007-08. There were also 19,113 fewer negatively-geared landlords than in 2017-18, representing the
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