Sales in lower-tier Chinese cities are not going well. At the aggregate level, a hopeful year has turned bust. Inventory isn’t going anywhere. Yet completions remain stable. This has to fall, or the market will never adjust. Only forever to go.
The ABS updated its biannual series on life expectancy yesterday, and, according to the numbers, you will now, on average, die a few months earlier than before Albo’s election win. We should probably acknowledge some role for COVID, given that the dip has been a global phenomenon. We can ship that home to Albo’s mates
In the classic version of Britain’s Top Gear, hosted by Jeremy Clarkson, James May, and Richard Hammond, there was a sometimes-used motto for their little crew: “Ambitious but rubbish.” From multiple rounds of sinking home made amphibious cars to attempting to launch a Reliant Robin into space, the trio lived up to their motto, often
The State of Victoria, already drowning in debt and facing further credit rating downgrades, last month passed legislation to establish a First Peoples’ Assembly, providing the indigenous community with significant powers that can greatly increase the cost and difficulty of managing the state. The First Peoples’ Assembly powers are buried in 200-plus pages of complex
As I keep saying, the household spending recovery is largely a mirage. The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index increased by 0.6% in October, mirroring September’s increase and representing the thirteenth consecutive month of growth for Australian households. 11 out of 12 categories saw an increase in spending, with Transport (+1.2%), Motor Vehicle (1.0%), and
The ferrous complex remains paralysed by an unsustainable iron ore price. It appears the inaugural cargo has departed the Pilbara killer with great fanfare, though it is unclear. The President of the Republic of Guinea today joined project partners WCS, Baowu, Chinalco and Rio Tinto in a ceremony at the port in Forécariah prefecture to
The NAB survey was out yesterday and showed ongoing disinflation in all cost inputs. These costs are the equivalent of 0.6-0.7% per quarter inflation. Hardly terrifying, especially since the survey also indicated an ongoing jobless recovery, with the employment measure stuck at 3, where it has been all year. With the transition from job-intensive spending
DXY is the canary in the coalmine. AUD couldn’t ride it. CNY meh. Gold and oil held gains. AI metals faded. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk is only OK. Yields meh. Stocks meh. There is mounting evidence that the US jobs market has stalled out. ADP for October was out overnight weak. It does correlate
Risk markets continue to price in some stability returning to US governance – ha! – but then Wall Street stumbled towards the close, unable to build on its big rebound at the start of the week. The USD was relatively stable against the majors although Euro was able to temporarily push above the 1.16 handle,
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is slightly lower than the current unemployment rate of 4.5%: Therefore, the RBA