Ever since China installed its “three red lines” policy early this year, there have been increasing signs of stress in China’s mega-development sector. Floor area starts have dropped sharply, equity markets have punished the sector and credit markets begun to tighten the noose on the more freewheeling names. That process continues today as Chin’s greatest
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Us yields may be falling owing to the peak in its inflation burst and coming disinflationary bust, but they can;t down to Aussie yields which are falling even faster. The Aussie 10 year yield inverted negative versus the US for the first time in eight months overnight. During the recent bond back-up the spread blew
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By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA Key Points The domestic economic landscape has changed significantly as a result of COVID‑19; it means that we are much more likely to see a lift in wages growth and consumer inflation over the next few years. The Commonwealth fiscal stance has shifted radically in favour
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The ferrous complex was well bid on June 11, 2021 for no reason that I can discern beyond my own posting. Spot was firm. Dalian paper jumped overnight. Steel has not updated: Dalian trading started weak yesterday until I posted on Vale’s latest dam troubles. Although it was not news, my reminding the market of
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I loath Q&A. It is little more than a bourgeois echo chamber of self-congratulation. What a relief it was to see economist Cameron Murray get on there and stick it to them with elegance, reason and demands for evidence. I don’t always agree with Cam but his arguments are well-reasoned, he demands evidence and he
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A big night on risk markets with the latest US inflation report coming in as expected, with the ECB meeting also not produce any surprises as stocks lifted across the board. Bond markets spiked before settling down with 10 year Treasuries putting in a three month low with USD slipping against the majors again but
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Forex finally got what it was asking for: lot’s of US inflation. But, as expected it was a bust for markets that have long priced it. They are now moving quickly towards the MB position of disinflationary shock. DXY and EUR barely moved: The Australian dollar remained thoroughly rangebound as well: Gold and oil lifted:
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MB has comprehensively debunked Australia’s claimed $40 billion of education exports, which are wildly exaggerated. In a nutshell, the majority of education ‘exports’ comes in the form of expenditure on goods and services in Australia, as explicitly acknowledged in a recent Mitchell Institute report: The majority of the $20 billion loss of economic value is
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In the week ended 10 June, the CoreLogic daily dwelling values index surged another 0.45%: Sydney’s led the way again, with dwelling values rising another 0.63%. All other major capitals except Perth also rose strongly in value: Quarterly price growth remains turbo-charged at 6.91% across the five major capitals. Sydney (9.02%) continues to lead the
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Global Macro / Markets / Investing: In a world first, El Salvador makes bitcoin legal tender – Reuters Hot inflation may have become scorching in May and is expected to hit a 28-year high – CNBC Controlling Rates Is More Complicated Than You Think – St. Louis Fed Fed’s reverse repo volume hits all-time high
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