The market does enjoy watching a good war. But this is still not all clear, in my book. This is especially true now that the Straits are closed. Goldman reckons due to the collapse of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, damage to energy infrastructure, and storage congestion that caused Iraq to reduce oil
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday reported a 0.9% increase in public sector demand in the December quarter, which was estimated to contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP for the quarter. Public demand, which comprises all federal, state and local government spending and investment, totalled $198 billion in the three months to December.
Victoria continues to swing to One Nation. According to a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll cited in the AFR, One Nation, which was not a choice in the previous survey conducted in December, is at 24%. Labour is down 6 to 25%, the Coalition is down 12 to 28%, and the Greens are up 1 to
Wednesday’s December quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) came in hot, with GDP rising by 2.6% in 2025, above the RBA’s latest forecast in the February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP): Viewed alongside the higher-than-target inflation and lower-than-forecast unemployment rate, the strong GDP print suggests that the RBA will be
Canadian PM Mark Carney has raised the median IQ in Australia for a few days. The world order is undergoing a rupture and the old norms of the rules-based international order are being erased, and that new system that will emerge ultimately is yet to be built. Global institutions have often been too slow to
The ferrous market does love seasonality, and no sooner has it closed the jaws than it is reopening them. This is part short squeeze, part hope for stimmies, with a dash of Iran thrown in. Futures markets have gotten rather short over the last month, so some corrective medicine was due. Second, hope for stimmies
In a normal post-pandemic year, auction clearance rates in Sydney leap out of the gates as the holiday season hibernation period ends and the property market surges in February and March. In 2022 and 2024, this period had the highest clearance rates of the year. Without an external catalyst, such as movements in interest rates,
Australia is suffering its worst rental crisis in living memory. Advertised rents have soared by around 47% since the end of 2019, according to Cotality, adding around $11,470 to the annual cost of renting for the typical Australian: Australian rental vacancy rates are also tracking at historical lows, at around half pre-pandemic levels: Cotality shows
The Albanese government has signalled that it will scale back the capital gains tax (CGT) discount in the May budget, most likely from 50% to 33% or 25%. It has also signalled that it will limit the number of investment properties that an individual can negatively gear. However, Greens senator Nick McKim says the 50%
Even the missteps of the American Madman can have a positive aspect. China still relies less on foreign energy sources than most large nations, but it has vulnerabilities worth exposing from time to time. This degree of dependence is far lower than that of major European industrial nations like Germany, Italy, and Spain, as well