When DemosAU released its latest federal polling last week, it brought a deeply unwelcome set of news for an already struggling Coalition; they were now neck and neck with One Nation for primary vote, with both parties at 23%. The transformation of the nation’s polling landscape since the election is remarkable. One Nation has seen
Cotality has a rather hopeful press release. Momentum returns to the building sector The Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) recorded a 1.0% increase in construction costs nationally over the December 2025 quarter, the strongest quarterly growth of the year. This marks a notable acceleration compared with the previous quarterly increases of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.6%,
Charts from TME. Is there a relationship between the Japanese long end and gold? Maybe. If so, YCC would create a divorce. Gold volatility says there’s no panic yet. Same regarding speculators. CTAs are more fully invested. The miner’s leverage to prices is normal. A few overheated signs. My own view is that gold is
When an Australian major party loses a federal election, it produces an internal report, or, as elements of the media describe it, an autopsy of what went wrong and what may have been managed better. The report into the disastrous campaign and defeat of the Coalition was in its final stages when former Liberal Leader
ANZ – Consumer Confidence at Royal Morgan slumped 5.2 points to 79.3 points from 5.2 points last week. This was the biggest weekly decline in confidence since the RBA raised the cash rate to 3.35% in February 2023. After a modest recovery following the implementation of Stage 3 tax cuts in July 2024, consumer confidence
In 2012, the Gillard government declared that the 21st century would be the “Asian Century”, and produced a White Paper detailing its expectations for how things would play out, entitled “Australia in the Asian Century”. It included expectations such as a baseline scenario predicting China would grow at 7% each year from 2012 to 2025,
Human beings! So vulnerable, venal and corrupt. It’s almost amusing from a high altitude. Yet on the ground, it is closer to maddening. The country’s largest coal power station will run for almost two years longer than planned after owner Origin Energy said an extension was needed to keep the grid secure amid a slower
Charts from TME. Penty of room for a healthy correction. Not so healthy for tech. Iiiieeeeehhhwww. Volaltity structure more bearish but not crazy by any means. There’s no rush for protection. But perhaps there should be. Err, there definitely should be. This chart is a doozy. When everybody is bullish… Be bearish. Especially as markets
The ferrous jaws have eased, but nowhere near enough. The news is amusing for bears. BHP Group’s iron ore discounts following Chinese pressure are “optical, temporary and economically bounded” and don’t reflect a decline in the mining giant’s pricing power, according to RBC Capital Markets. The world’s largest mining company is deliberately absorbing the discounts
Wall Street came back from its long weekend holiday and sold off immediately in response to the EU revokation of the previous Trump-induced 2025 trade deal as the fallout from the shambles over Greenland hit all risk markets. Treasury yields spiked as European bondholders started selling off US bonds, with the 10 year up near