The latest interest rate futures pricing has Australia’s official cash rate sitting at 4.17% by the end of 2026. Thus, financial markets are tipping at least two and possibly three 25 bp interest rate hikes by the end of this year. If these forecasts came to fruition, variable mortgage rates would climb to around 6%
The ferrous jaws must close! The CNY steel inventory restock has begun from a higher level than last year, according to CISA data. The iron ore port mountain is Himalayan and growing at roughly 2mt per week. From CISA. And MySteel. The Chinese Steel PMI was dead flat at 50 across the board. The export
What goes up… DXY has recaptured support, and how. Houston, we have a problem. CNY still supportive. JPY not so much. As I have warned many times, gold is volatile. AI metals meltdown. Massive mining reversal. EM too. Junk is alseep in a chair. Curve steepened. Stocks fell. What gives? Kevin Warsh will succeed
Since coming to power, Labor has increased the Australian Public Service (APS) headcount by 24%, to more than 213,000 staff. The government argues the increase is necessary to reduce reliance on consultants and contractors. The federal government had forecast in its March 2025 budget that the public service wages bill would remain steady at about
International Reading: ‘The American People Deserve It’: Democrats Reveal Their 3 Demands to Avoid a Shutdown. – Time Scott Bessent said Americans should skip toys for kids’ birthdays and instead invest in Trump’s accounts – Independent Melania Trump to earn at least $28M from Amazon for documentary deal: report – NY Post Partial federal shutdown
Nobody wants US dollars. But they want Bitcoin even less. This is a pretty stark break from the narrative we’ve been sold about BTC being “digital gold” or some kind of alternative “reserve currency” that can’t be debased. Indeed, markets are consumed by a global fiat debasement trade at the moment, yet BTC keeps falling.
Wednesday’s CPI inflation release for December was a shocker that, alongside the decline in the nation’s unemployment rate to 4.1%, suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike the official cash rate at next month’s monetary policy meeting. The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.9% over the December quarter to
When I moved to Hellbourne from Sydney (oh, the regret) in 2009, after successfully selling The Diplomat in Japan on the eve of the GFC, I met the rulers of the incipient Grattan Institute to see if they might be worth my time. It was a jarring experience. My freewheeling intellect and entrepreneurial style clashed with their
The media frequently criticises coal generation subsidies while overlooking the significantly larger subsidies for renewable energy. Some of Australia’s leading fund managers and economists are warning that two major federal financing programs for renewable energy—the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the National Reconstruction Fund (NRF)—risk becoming “slush funds” unless the government provides far greater transparency
The ferrous jaws must close! A 2% pop yesterday, driven by news of the easing of the “three red lines” for some Chinese property developers, faded overnight. This is quite right, but it shows that sentiment is in no mood for reflexive recoveries. The news flow wasn’t bullish on the ground, either. Inventories of imported