The Aussie trade balance for November was out yesterday and shows one great, big trend: a disappearing trade surplus. Some of this was always going to happen as the post-Ukraine War commodities mania subsided. I expect we’ll be running a deficit by year’s end as iron ore and energy continue to fall, despite gold. There
Calculated Risk sums the data. On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that
Charts from TME. SPX is caught in a bearish rising wedge, tough it could also be seen as a bullsh asending triangle. Tech is more neutral and could go either way from a symmetrical triangle. The NY rotation has been from tech to the broader market, or, put another way, from AI spenders to AI
As of the latest building approvals data from the ABS, in the last 12 months, 111,500 detached houses were approved for construction. This result comes with both good news and bad news. The good news is that the figure for detached house approvals is up by 6,800 homes from the lows seen in December 2023.
As expected, nothing of substance will be discussed beyond tightening a police cordon around your life and opinions. Tackling antisemitism by investigating the nature and prevalence of antisemitism in institutions and society, and its key drivers in Australia, including ideologically and religiously motivated extremism and radicalisation. Making recommendations that will assist law enforcement, border control,
Analysts are beginning to assess the implications of the Trump administration’s toppling of the Maduro government in Venezuela, not only for the Americas but also for the world. In 2024, Venezuela exported around 1 million barrels of oil per day. In January 2025, a little under half of that, around 390,000 barrels per day, was
The ferrous complex is up to its usual New Year games as speculation mounts about imminent yawnulus. There is some evidence for increased fiscal support in early-year bond issuance; however, the usual caveats apply. More and more, such spending is directed away from commodity-intensive uses. Additionally, the yawnies must now contend with the anti-involution investment
A huge fill in the US trade deficit overnight gave the USD some more power, while the latest US initial jobless claims suggest another weaker NFP print tonight that should encompass post shutdown data. Wall Street stumbled around however as did European stocks with oil putting in a surprise breakout, most likely due to protests
DXY is threatening a little again. AUS has a nasty candle but has not yet broken support at previous resistance. CNY is supportive. A rare up day for oil. Metal mania has turned DXY bust. Another nasty candle on big miners. EM sag. Junk refuses to corroborate any rally. US long-end warming up. Stocks struggling
In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, the Australian economy has become ever more reliant on government for positive outcomes. Much of the revenue required to underpin this ongoing intervention has been derived from the explosive rise in resource exports, which rose by well over 200% at their peak in 2023 compared with their