The New Zealand economy continues to push through its housing bust and economic downturn. Yesterday, unemployment came in at 5.3% for the September quarter. The participation rate continues to fall to 70.3% as jobs become more scarce, holding down the headline unemployment rate. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the underutilisation rate
A new study, entitled “Perverse policy incentives and inferior economic outcomes” has exposed the failings of Australia’s migration system, particularly the student visa system. The study’s abstract is presented below: Between 1999 and 2012, Australia enacted a raft of policies that advantaged overseas students when applying for permanent residency, through the so-called 880 visa series. These policies
The Market Ear on a market trying to find sanity. Muted fear The sell-off has stretched across several sessions, yet volatilities have remained orderly, a stark contrast to October’s sharp spike. The VIX reaction so far is muted, a “fearless” unwind where complacency lingers and volatility still refuses to show up. With little fear The
For a long time, I have bewailed the rise of fake left and its obsession with culture war issues like genitals, Palestine and racism. The substitution of this grab bag of identity politics for issues of class has led directly to the rise of the populist right in the shape of Donald Trump as American
ANZ has a few nice charts showing how labour costs have nothing to do with the recent inflation pop. The Q3 trimmed mean inflation print is likely to have been a ‘one-off’. Several factors point to that conclusion, including business survey price and cost measures, the tendency for Q3 inflation prints in recent years to
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines the political storm hitting the healthcare sector — how comments and policy risks from Trump and RFK Jr. are weighing on valuations, whether today’s beaten-down prices could present a long-term buying opportunity, or if lasting damage to the sector’s economics and social licence
In 2023, the Victorian government committed to delivering 80,000 new homes annually for the next decade, with a target of 2 million by 2051. To achieve its target, the government has implemented an authoritarian plan to seize control of planning from local governments and create 50 activity zones designated for high-density apartments. The government last week
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was interviewed by The Australian, during which he was questioned about his plan for “Universal Childcare”. Albanese confirmed that this would be a major focus of the government for 2025 but remained guarded on exactly what that might look like in reality. “We’ll worry about that next year,”
Steel is in freefall again. This does not include yesterday, when rebar fell another 1.4% and HRC 1.2%. The ferrous jaws must close. Simandou is getting coverage everywhere now. Some nice images here from Bloomberg. But the AFR has a much better piece with some great detail. …most analysts are sceptical about the potential for
DXY is breaking out still. AUD rebounded in its fading trend. CNY meh. Gold trying to hold. AI metals a better day. The chosen one bounced. EM too. Junk held. But there’s trouble in them thar yields. Stocks rose anyway. I remain cautious on the crap complex—commodities, EM, AUD—while the bond backup and rising DXY