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Articles from The Tally Room

The starting point in NSW

February 20, 2023 - 09:30 -- Admin

As we commence the NSW state election campaign, there’s a bit of confusion about how many seats we should credit to each party as a starting point. This is understandable considering that we’ve had a redistribution, a seat changing hands at a by-election, and numerous MPs leaving their party to sit as independents or with another party. So for this post, I’m just running through those numbers to hopefully come to an agreed set of numbers.

NSW 2023 – rising preference flows deciding the upper house

February 14, 2023 - 10:30 -- Admin

When results are reported for the NSW upper house, generally there’s an expectation that the primary votes mostly tell us who will win. That’s mostly true, but at the last three elections there’s always been one seat that went to a party that benefited from stronger preference flows – and these stronger flows usually flow in one direction.

What might happen at the Victorian and WA federal redistributions?

February 1, 2023 - 09:30 -- Admin

Yesterday’s post analysed the intra-state trends in terms of enrolment for each NSW federal electorate. Today I’m looking at the trends in Victoria and Western Australia. These states are slightly simpler since we know they will be losing and gaining a seat respectively, and there has been less time since the last redistribution.