Articles from The Tally Room

Yesterday I was informed of a website from Tasmanian Labor that has been used in text messages to Tasmanian voters.

I don’t normally comment on campaign rhetoric like this, but in this case the website name-drops me a number of times, and selectively quotes from an article I wrote for the Guardian six years ago.

Tasmanian state elections often play out across a north-south divide, with the two southern electorates playing out differently than the northern remainder of the state.

In this post I thought I would try and map out some of these dynamics over the last 35 years and understand how they might impact on this upcoming election.

This blog post is borrowing a bit from a post I did after the 2021 election, which you can read here.

Brisbane City’s single-member wards lend themselves to two-party competition, but in recent decades we’ve seen the rise of the Greens, first by just contesting wards that had previously been two-candidate contests, and eventually by winning their first ward and increasing their vote citywide.

7:22 – The 2PP swing in Mt Eliza Central was actually 0.8% to Labor. The overall swing is down to 4.1%.

7:21 – With ten booths reporting primary votes, the swing to Labor is up to 1.7%. I’m probably at the point where I won’t be reporting each individual booth swing, but Langwarrin North, Frankston South, Skye and Karingal Central have all reported.