Today I’m going through the Labor-Coalition contests that are of most interest in regional New South Wales. Tomorrow I will be back to look at the other races of interest in regional NSW.
I’ve identified five seats of interest for this post.
In today’s blog post I’m going through the races that could prove to be interesting in Sydney but aren’t a Labor vs Liberal race.
With the NSW state election coming up this weekend, Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the upper house race and what to watch for on election night.
Over the course of this week I’ll be running through four categories of seats that seem interesting as we get closer to Saturday. Today, I’m analysing twelve classic Labor vs Liberal seats in the Sydney region.
I’ve identified ten Liberal seats and two Labor seats worth mentioning. These seats mostly lie in an arc from the south-east to the northern suburbs, arcing through the outer western suburbs.
New South Wales legislation sets a schedule for redistributions of Legislative Assembly electorates to be held once every two terms. We have had redistributions before the 1991, 1999, 2007, 2015 and 2023 elections. Yet there is a clause in the constitution that allows for one to be triggered sooner, if enough electorates deviate far enough away from the average for two straight months.
There’s a lot of talk about hung parliaments, but they’re not all the same. A potential hung parliament in New South Wales will play out quite differently depending on the relative balance of the major parties and who sits on that crossbench.
In this post I’m going to consider a number of different scenarios based on particular outcomes in clusters of seats, and how that might affect who is in a position to have power.
I’ve been an unusual number of councillors announcing their candidacy for the state election. It made me wonder, how many are actually running? How many are likely to win? And how does this compare to recent history?
I’m using the same methodology I used for yesterday’s post on gender. Seats are classified as safe or likely for a candidate or marginal for 2-3 candidates.
It’s a common topic on this blog that I analyse how many men and women are nominated for each party, but it’s not really the most important measure. Ultimately candidate nominations are simply a means to an end, which is the final elected parliament of representatives. So for today’s blog post I’m analysing the likely gender balance of the next NSW parliament.
In today’s episode Ben is joined by Peter Chen from the University of Sydney. They discuss the prospects for a hung parliament and the major campaign issues dominating the election.
There is a lot of speculation about the potential for a hung parliament in NSW, legitimately in my opinion.
In today’s post, the last examining preference flow data from 2019, I look at a number of datapoints that might tell us something about how the crossbenchers elected in 2019 might jump in the circumstances of a hung parliament.