Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from The Tally Room

Checking out variations between the House and the Senate

June 9, 2022 - 10:38 -- Admin

There’s a lot to be learned about the trends in this election by looking at how the largest party groupings performed in the two Houses. While the major parties generally polled a lower vote in the Senate than in the House, that pattern varies widely.

In this post, I’ve included a map showing the difference for Labor, Coalition, Greens and One Nation, and you can click through to see the results in both houses for those parties along with the UAP and LDP.

What sort of swing could produce a hung parliament?

June 8, 2022 - 10:00 -- Admin

On election day I published a blog post looking at how the crossbench had been expanding over time and how that had largely eliminated the risk of a “wrong winner” outcome, where the party losing the two-party-preferred count wins a majority.

I realised the other day that we basically have all the data we need now to revisit this topic and see how things have changed.

Changing voting patterns slow down declaration of seats

June 7, 2022 - 15:37 -- Admin

Most people who read this website would have a reasonably good sense of the formal process of counting ballots: the counting of a primary vote, a two-candidate-preferred count, and the full distribution of preferences, where each candidate is excluded one-at-a-time until there are only two left. The AEC eventually will publish all of this data for every seat, even where a candidate has won the seat on primary votes, making preference flows redundant.

Is the Coalition one party, two parties or four parties?

June 6, 2022 - 10:00 -- Admin

There’s been a lot of chatter online in the last few days challenging calculations about the low primary vote for the newly-elected Labor government, not by disputing that figure, but by arguing that it is higher than the vote for the Liberal Party. It’s been all over Twitter from some of the more ferocious ALP supporters. This has been a faulty logic, because it doesn’t include the vote for the other Coalition parties.

How might an election have played out under PR?

June 3, 2022 - 10:00 -- Admin

On Wednesday I published a blog post arguing that the House of Representatives electoral system needs to change to proportional representation, but I stayed away from any discussion of specific models. Since then, there’s been a lot of discussion of various models, so I thought I would try my hand at a few different models that I think could potentially work.