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Results prediction open thread

May 20, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

Today’s blog post will be short. I’m creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go.

I’ll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I will primarily be contributing to the Guardian’s results liveblog and seat-calling efforts. I’ll then be back with analysis on Sunday, and I’ll be recording a podcast with Kevin Bonham on Sunday afternoon to get out as quickly as possible.

Early voting update

May 19, 2022 - 13:05 -- Admin

I thought it was about time to do another update of the early voting statistics.

As of the end of Wednesday, 3.87 million people had cast a pre-poll vote. This compares to 3.52 million as of the same point in 2019, and a cumulative total of just under 4.8 million as of the end of the 2019 pre-poll period.

Historic election trends between the states

May 16, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

One of the big questions at this election is how the result will play out in each state. Labor has performed poorly in Queensland and Western Australia but is hoping to pick up ground there.

For this post I wanted to examine the historic record on how the two-party-preferred vote in each state varied from the country overall. Then I look at what the latest polling suggests could happen in 2022.

Which seats swing the most?

May 15, 2022 - 11:00 -- Admin

Last month I posted an analysis looking at how much seats have moved in terms of their two-party-preferred rank, relative to every other seat in the country. Matt Cowgill on Twitter suggested I also look at the average size of swings in each seat in absolute terms (ie. ignoring whether the swings went one way or the other) to judge which seats seemed to be the most swingy.

Early voting update

May 12, 2022 - 11:13 -- Admin

Today is the fourth day of pre-poll voting, and it seemed like a good time to check in on how many people have voted so far.

Postal vote applications continue to grow, and the total is currently 56% above the level at this time in 2019.

The amount of pre-poll voting over the last three days far exceeds numbers for the second-last week in previous elections, and overall the AEC has already received votes for almost 10% of all eligible voters.