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Nominations close, 2022 edition

April 23, 2022 - 08:38 -- Admin

Nominations were declared for the federal election yesterday, and we now have the final official lists of candidates.

We’ve seen a record number of candidates running for the House of Representatives, despite the number of parties running candidates falling to the lowest level since 2010. This is partly due to One Nation and United Australia running 300 candidates between them, leading to a big surge in total numbers despite less parties running.

The declining major party vote

April 21, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

I’ve been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of political history. So much of electoral analysis is focused on the swings between one election and the next, and looking at the back and forth that take place over the term of a government.

Adjusting historic election results for boundary changes

April 19, 2022 - 09:30 -- Admin

If you’ve been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat over recent decades. It features a dotted green line, which is my estimate of how the modern 2022 electoral boundaries voted at every election since 2004.

In this blog post I will explain how to read these charts, and how I produced this data.

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