Nominations were declared for the federal election yesterday, and we now have the final official lists of candidates.
We’ve seen a record number of candidates running for the House of Representatives, despite the number of parties running candidates falling to the lowest level since 2010. This is partly due to One Nation and United Australia running 300 candidates between them, leading to a big surge in total numbers despite less parties running.
Ben is joined by Narelle Miragliotta and Stewart Jackson to discuss the rise of the Voices independents movement, and the Victorian seat of Casey.
I’ve been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of political history. So much of electoral analysis is focused on the swings between one election and the next, and looking at the back and forth that take place over the term of a government.
In yesterday’s post I explained my dataset of election results from 2004-2019 adjusted for 2022 boundaries. In today’s post I use that data to explore how seats have changed their political position relative to the rest of the country over this period.
If you’ve been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat over recent decades. It features a dotted green line, which is my estimate of how the modern 2022 electoral boundaries voted at every election since 2004.
In this blog post I will explain how to read these charts, and how I produced this data.
With the election campaign now underway, I’ve done another update of my candidate list, which I posted about in February. You can view the whole list here.
Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Griffith University and Rob Manwaring from Flinders University to discuss the relationship between Labor and the Greens and how it may play out in this federal election.
It appears that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, is on his way to visit the governor-general today to call the Australian federal election, apparently for May 21.
I’m actually in the inner south of Canberra today, watching the running festival.
Feel free to use this blog post as an open thread, or check out the Tally Room guide to the federal election.
Ben is joined by Peter Lewis from the Essential Poll to talk about the current state of polling in the lead up to the federal election, and to discuss the federal seat of Page.
It looks likely that the federal election will be called this coming weekend, for the 14th or 21st of May.
With that, I’ve now unlocked my full federal election guide. It features profiles of all 151 House races and the eight Senate contests, including history, election results, candidates and maps.