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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 11:30 Source

A national interest policy process is one in which a well-informed government determines its policy settings via a specialist area of the bureaucracy. Next, the draft policy is released, and parliamentarians make well-understood arguments to the public via an intelligent media with its own specialists. Having fortified the polity with knowledge, the government might then

The post Gas debate burns national interest alive appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 11:00 Source

A new report from Oxfam claims that the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing are “disproportionately” benefiting Australia’s wealthiest, fuelling the housing affordability crisis and inequality, and harming the federal budget. Accordingly, Oxfam has called on the government to “properly tax wealth and restore a progressive tax system that works for working people”.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 10:30 Source

It appears that the government-funded jobs printer of the Albo era is slowing faster than the crushed private sector economy of the Albo era can catch up. Public spending has been much more labour-intensive than private spending, given its focus on the bedpan economy. There is mounting evidence that this is resulting in a softening

The post More rate cuts coming as jobs market breaks down appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 10:00 Source

This week’s consumer sentiment survey from Westpac revealed that Australian house price expectations are at their highest level in 15 years, following a 2.1% rise in October. Westpac also noted that “expectations are stronger still in Queensland (184)”. Queensland’s housing market has boomed following the pandemic to become the nation’s second most expensive jurisdiction after

The post Brisbane house prices bubble-up appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:30 Source

In last week’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate on hold, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than

The post Bad news for Aussie inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:24 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:18 Source
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The Tally Room Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:15 Source

The Australian Electoral Commission yesterday published the official statistics that will be used for federal redistributions in South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT. This gives us a bit more insight into what is likely to happen in those redistributions.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The ferrous complex remains paralysed by too much versus too much hope. Some Morgan Stanley charts illustrate the point. Steel is weak globally and abundant in China still. We are about to witness the weakest New Year restock in history, just as Chinese steel exports top out on trade wars. Iron ore is everywhere! The

The post How fast will the Pilbara be killed? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 08:00 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 07:52 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 07:16 Source

What we are seeing in many markets today is exactly what I expected to see when I made my 40 cents AUD call a few years ago. American exceptionalism is alive in the AI bubble but severely crimped by anti-Trumpian capital flows. The Chinese economy is slowly dying, but propped up as it pours money

The post Australian dollar topped as iron ore enters end game appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 04:28 Source

Senior officials in Poland and the Baltic states have blasted former German Chancellor Angela Merkel after she claimed they derailed potential EU-Russia talks on Ukraine months before the escalation of the conflict in 2022.

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Your Democracy Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 04:16 Source

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MacroBusiness Thursday, October 9, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Being a renter in Australia is like competing in the Hunger Games. After borders reopened in late 2021, temporary migrants flooded into Australia in record volumes: As a result, rents surged and vacancy rates collapsed: At the end of 2024, Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported that the percentage of household income spent on rents hit a

The post Renters are the forgotten people appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 16:59 Source

Man, I don’t know where I am this week. That holiday on Monday was always going to put the zap on my head, but I think I made it much worse by working through the weekend. Both Jane and I were on deadline, so we just pulled normal workdays on Saturday and Sunday, and then had Monday off, which was nice.

Then Tuesday, I caught up with Nick Pringle and his partner, Melissa, who I know from my time in publishing in Sydney. They were having a little break in Brisbane, so they popped out to my part of the world to have a coffee and a couple of toasted sangas. That was nice.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 16:36 Source

Queenscliff pier at sunrise   AUD/USD   EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold….we are now in parabola mode… West Texas Intermediate Brent   Australia 200   US S&P 500   UK 100   Japan 225       Videos                                    

The post Macro Afternoon: 8 October 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 15:28 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 15:20 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 14:53 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 14:52 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 14:31 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 14:00 Source

The NSW government has been criticised for blocking Freedom of Information (FOI) requests for access to taxpayer-funded reports on the likely impact of closing down coal-fired power stations on electricity prices. The government has commissioned at least 10 reports, studies, and presentations between June 2024 and July 2025 on the impact of its emissions reduction

The post If renewables are cheaper, why the secrecy? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 13:06 Source

New Zealand’s economy is in a deep hole. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, real GDP contracted sharply in the June quarter, drastically underperforming the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecast: The number of filled jobs in New Zealand has also contracted sharply: As a result, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday chose

The post Reserve Bank panics, cuts rates by 0.5% appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 12:59 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 12:00 Source

One of the often repeated tropes of social media discourse or backyard BBQ political debates is the idea that the election victories that Labor has won in Victoria and federally are indicative of the public holding a high level of support for their leadership. Such an assumption is not a new phenomenon. This perspective has

The post Looking at politics all wrong appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 11:46 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 11:30 Source

There is a commonly held economic narrative that Indian demand for commodities will compensate for the reduction in Chinese demand as China’s economy slows and rebalances toward a consumer-focused model. The reality of this narrative is perhaps best summed up by the chart below from Visual Capitalist, which shows that China produced more steel in

The post India cannot rescue Australia from itself appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 11:00 Source

In a speech to the National Press Club, BlueScope CEO Mark Vassella warned that Australia risks following the UK’s industrial decline if the federal government fails to fix the gas market. Vassella and other industry leaders say that without cheaper gas, the federal government’s Future Made in Australia policy is doomed, and Australia will become

The post Energy security for everyone but Australians appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, October 8, 2025 - 11:00 Source

I understand it's hard to do more than 300 feet on these 90-second rush jobs, but with a smaller ramp I'm worried the gee forces will be too high for me to do any tricks.

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