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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 11:30 Source

If there is one country that has come to embody the absolute failure of developed world policymakers to address existential economic and social issues, it is South Korea. Despite it’s status as one of the most technologically advanced economies in the world and one of only a relative handful to reach developed world status outside

The post Australia following South Korea’s path to national ruin? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 11:21 Source

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The Tally Room Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 11:15 Source

There were 21 seats in 2025 where an independent candidate made the two-candidate-preferred count. For today’s post, I want to explore what we can tell about those voters from their other voting patterns. For voters who ended up with the independent in the two-candidate-preferred count: how did they cast their primary vote, and where did they rank Labor or Coalition?

For some of this analysis, it is important to analyse seats where the independent was primarily opposing Labor or primarily opposing the Coalition separately.

This first chart shows the 14 independents who made the 2CP count against the Coalition.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Market Ear on the melt-up. Buy signal up here? NDX just put in the golden cross. Golden crosses over the past years were followed by big melt up phases… Source: LSEG Workspace Not enough McElligott sums it up well: “There’s simply not enough “Net” leverage / Beta -“on” and returns have under captured the

The post Robots buy, buy, buy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The NSW government’s budget papers show that the state is expected to post a deficit of $5.7 billion for the 2024-25 financial year. The deficit is projected to narrow to $3.4 billion in 2025-26, although it is well above the $2.2 billion deficit that Treasury had forecast in the mid-year budget update. Treasurer Daniel Mookhey

The post NSW government turns home buyer of last resort appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Inflation is falling across the advanced world. As a result, monetary policy is easing globally, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro: As shown above, the decline in official interest rates has lagged other advanced nations. The recent local data shows that inflationary pressures in Australia are rapidly easing. Wednesday’s monthly inflation indicator

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is at the breaking point. EUR is soaring. AUD should be catapulting, but markets are beginning to understand that Labor’s immigration-led growth model produces no inflation. Lead boots plod higher. Gold has lost its energy. Oil bottom. Metals reflation is here. Except for the big bears. EM yawn. Junk on the verge of a

The post Australian dollar left behind as economy sags appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street struggled to find a reason to continue the post “Mission Accomplised” Iranian strike rally with European shares slumping despite a commitment of more military spending at NATO. Softer home sales in the US and a very cautious Federal Reserve Chair saw the USD sold off yet again, with almost all the undollars picking

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 08:53 Source

Ukraine can still achieve a military victory over Russia, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe and head of the US European Command, Alexus Grynkewich, said during a US Senate hearing on Tuesday. He was confirmed in his new role with the US-led military bloc earlier this month.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 08:00 Source

With the release of the latest rental vacancy rate figures from SQM Research, it was revealed that, at a national aggregate level, zero progress had been made in addressing the nation’s rental crisis over the last 12 months. While SQM’s rental vacancy rates are not seasonally adjusted, a comparison of the same month in the

The post Australia’s forever rental crisis appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 06:00 Source

Almost all of Australia’s top chief executives are, according to their boards at least, knocking it out of the park in terms of performance.

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 05:44 Source

Democracy should be the right enjoyed by people of different countries rather than the privilege of certain countries. As the so-called Summit for Democracy, US' newest international charade, is about to kick off on Thursday, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, released on Monday the research report "Ten Questions for American Democracy."

 

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 05:25 Source

When Russian President Vladimir Putin told the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week that the world needs “a new model of global growth,” many Western commentators heard only a familiar plea: lift the sanctions, drop the tariffs, stop using trade as a geopolitical cudgel.

 

Russia takes on the West’s biggest obsessionPutin says the world needs a new growth model. He might be right.By Andrey Kortunov

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 26, 2025 - 00:05 Source

In handing down Western Australia’s latest budget last week, WA Treasurer Rita Saffioti announced $1.4 billion worth of measures aimed at addressing issues in the WA housing market. With the Western Australian housing market seeing rapidly rising prices and a dire lack of rental housing, Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) chief economist Cassandra

The post Australia’s housing shell game appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 20:59 Source

They came. They bunker-busted. They fled.

And then they set the stage to control the narrative via a massive P.R. operation.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Equity markets in Asia are somewhat bullish although the latest softish CPI print kept Australian stocks and the dollar steady, despite further calls of cuts from the RBA. The USD is trying to clawback lost ground but its really all about the Yen at the moment as the BOJ indicates some hawkish positioning around their

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 15:22 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 15:22 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:54 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:43 Source

Following a wave of softer-than-expected data and the dovish May RBA decision, CBA has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts forward. “We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.60% at its 7-8 July meeting”, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen wrote. “And a follow up 25bp rate cut in

The post RBA set to rain interest rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Australia delayed implementing global anti-money laundering rules for nearly two decades. In March, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) and Transparency International released the inaugural Opacity in Real Estate Ownership (OREO) Index, which ranked Australia last in the world. The index ranked major developed nations on two key criteria: 1) the scope and accessibility of real

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:53 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:45 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Recently, it was revealed that the membership ranks of the Liberal Party were plummeting, with one party source claiming that the biggest party expense at the local level was “funeral wreaths”. Twenty years ago, in Victoria, the Liberal Party had approximately 15,000 members. Today, more recent figures indicate that the state’s party membership stands at

The post The Liberal Party is dying appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The Market Ear with more on the hated rally. Still little chatter… …about ATHs. SPX practically at range highs. Let’s see how this plays out from here, but an extension of the squeeze is not consensus. FOMO risk is huge. Source: LSEG Workspace NDX seasonality “We are entering positive seasonality for the NDX. Over the last 25

The post The hated rally is always the most violent appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Once upon a time, the immigration intake into Australia was a mostly benign issue, with the intake as a proportion of the population largely ebbing and flowing in a relatively limited range, consistent with the underlying conditions present in the economy. There were exceptions to this, most notably the return of servicemen and women following

The post The changing rules on Australian immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:30 Source
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The Tally Room Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:06 Source

The two-party-preferred vote is the simplest statistic we have in Australian elections – just two numbers that always add up to 100%. While it has reduced relevance for calculating the result in some seats, it still has predictive power and also plays a role as a sort of barometer of the relative popularity of the two major parties. Despite the increase in the vote for minor parties and independents, the choice of who forms government is still binary.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Via the ABS. CPI analytical series Seasonally adjusted 2.4 2.4 2.1 CPI excluding volatile items* and holiday travel 2.6 2.8 2.7 Annual trimmed mean 2.7 2.8 2.4 Two basis points under market expectations. The chart: Trimmed mean inflation is also running well behind the RBA’s forecasts, as illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors:

The post Monthly inflation takes a dump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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