South Australia will go to the polls in March for their state election.
The most recent polls predict an enormous landslide victory for the incumbent Labor government.
As we get closer, it was time to unlock my guide to the South Australian election. I published this guide on March 20 last year, one year out from the election, but it has been locked as a benefit for Tally Room members. I’ve now fully unlocked the guide.
If you like what you see, you can sign up as a member to access my guides to the Victorian and New South Wales state elections, as well as a partial guide to the next federal election covering two thirds of seats. You can get access to all these guides by signing up via Patreon for $8 + GST per month.
Before unlocking the guide, I have updated my candidate lists on each profile. The guide now features 155 candidates for the House of Assembly as well as candidates for ten different upper house groups.
Of the 47 House of Assembly seats, Labor has candidates announced for 43 seats. The Liberal Party has 33, One Nation 32, the Greens 18 and there are 15 independents. The Animal Justice Party has announced six candidates while the Nationals, Fair Game and Legalise Cannabis have each announced two. Two other parties have a single candidate each.
I expect the four largest parties will each nominate a full ticket across the state. One Nation ran just 19 lower house candidates in 2022, so that is a big increase for them, and will give us a chance to see how the national One Nation polling surge might be playing out in a state with a very weak Liberal Party.
62 of the 155 candidates are women. Labor and the Greens are roughly even (46.5% and 55.6% women respectively) while the Liberal and One Nation candidate lists are male-dominated. Two thirds of independents are men – not a lot of them fit the traditional “teal” profile.
There will be more to say about South Australia over the next seven weeks, and I will be making at least two podcasts on the topic next month.