Ever since it became evident that Trump was likely to be re-elected, I’ve been among the most pessimistic of commentators on the likely course of US politics (most recently here for example). I’ve also been nowhere near pessimistic enough. I assumed that Trump would follow the course of dictators like Putin and Orban, gradually eroding freedom and making his own power permanent. Instead, he’s gone most of the way inside a year.
He started by blackmailing corporations, law firms and universities. Amazingly, while the corporations and law firms buckled (or collaborated) immediately, at least some universities have resisted as best they could.
And while predictions of mass deportations, concentration camps and troops on the streets, were derided in 2024, they are now an established reality. The only surprise here is that Trump has not yet invoked the Insurrection Act.
Trump’s run for a third term has already been announced, as has the necessary previous step, the cancellation of the 2026 mid-term elections. All done in the usual “joking, not joking” fashion in which he announced his intention to be a dictator immediately after the 2024 election, and which fools the US commentariat every time.
And throughout all this, he has retained the overwhelming support of Republicans, both politicians and voters. His declining poll numbers (parallel to his first term) reflect his failure to lower the price of eggs, not any hint that his base supporters (about 40 per cent of all Americans and a majority of white American men) are repelled by his corruption, fascism and general evil.
All through 2025, there was little sign of effective resistance. The Democrats were useless as usual. And whereas the situation called for continuous mass protest, there were just a couple of well-attended but ineffectual “No Kings” rallies.
Despite all this, I’m feeling more hopeful today than I have for some time. Trump’s humiliation at Davos and the rejection of his absurd Board of Peace ( as I read somewhere, made up of dictators, monarchs and wanted criminals) shows that the free world (still a meaningful term) is writing him off, and is preparing to do without the US. In particular, the success of Europe, including Ukraine, in holding Russia at bay without US help means that the threat of leaving NATO no longer scares anybody as it used to (except of course Mark Rutte, whose job is on the line).
Even more importantly, the heroic resistance of the people of Minneapolis to Trump’s murderous secret police provides a basis for future action, and seems likely to ensure that the situation will reach crisis point well before the scheduled date for the mid-terms. The Democrats have finally been shamed into action, and may perhaps stand firm this time. There’s even some chance that the invisible group of decent Republicans, on whom so much reliance has been placed, will finally emerge from hiding and break with Trump.
The odds against saving US democracy remain long. And the international position of the US is gone for good, even if Trump is defeated for now. Only a wholesale repudiation of the Republican party by a durable majority can begin to undo the damage done in a single year. Perhaps in a reversion to my normal over-optimism, I’m starting to hope that might happen.