The Electoral Matters Committee of the Victorian Parliament yesterday brought down the final report for their inquiry into Victoria’s upper house electoral system.
The report brings Victoria closer to an immediate abolition of group voting tickets for state upper house elections, ending their practice in any Australian state or federal election. But such a change is strongly opposed by the smaller parties in the upper house.
This is the second inquiry to look at this issue during this term. The standard inquiry into the 2022 election, held following every state election, did recommend the abolition of GVTs but also kicked the can down the road to another inquiry to look into the issue in more detail.
Everyone seems to agree now that group voting tickets should be abolished. The main sticking point is to whether they should be abolished immediately, or should be only abolished once the upper house is reformed to make it easier for small parties to win seats.
If Victoria were to switch to a system similar to those used for the Senate or for upper houses in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, but still maintain the structure of eight regions of five seats each, it would make it hard for most small parties to get elected. A quota of 16.7% is quite high, and in practice there would be few occasions where a party smaller than the Greens would win (although the party system may change in a way that makes this more viable).
Any change to the upper house structure would require a referendum, and it’s not clear if there is the political will from government to pursue a referendum, or whether voters would support a change to the structure.
The EMC put together a discussion paper with a number of options for alternative structures. Just yesterday, the Guardian published a lengthy interactive exploring how group voting tickets worked and the 2022 likely winners under each alternative system. I contributed advice and calculated estimates on who would win (or at least who would be leading on primary votes).
Yesterday’s final report made two key recommendations:
- That group voting tickets be abolished as soon as possible, in time for the 2026 state election.
- That a new independent process consider and negotiate different views about the best electoral structure for Victoria’s upper house. This process could be an expert panel, a citizens assembly or a constitutional convention.
This is where the rubber hit the road, and where the committee has come to find itself divided.
The report helpfully includes a section which lists how MPs voted in a number of key votes during the inquiry. In every single case, Legalise Cannabis MP David Ettershank is on one side of the vote while every Labor, Coalition and Greens MP is on the other side. Ettershank is the only representative of the small parties (who would struggle the most without group voting tickets).
Ettershank also put in a minority report which makes his position very clear: GVT abolition should only take place alongside regional reform which lowers the threshold to win seats. There was also a minority report from the Coalition members which supported the recommendation and clearly showed an openness to regional reform.
Hopefully we will now see GVT abolition on the table in 2026, although it may cause difficulties for the Labor government, as many of those crossbenchers opposed to the reform hold key seats in the balance of power, and would consider such a move as a serious threat to their political careers (not that GVT-elected microparty MPs have much prospect of re-election).
Once that reform is complete, the question of future changes is exciting and interesting, although I am sceptical that it will be seen through.
An independent process to develop a referendum proposal would be fascinating, and I would be eager to contribute in any way I can.
It is likely the ranks of small parties in the Legislative Council would be much reduced after an election held without GVTs, and it is possible the other parties would decide they like the 8×5 system and don’t want to touch it. But I do think the door has now been opened to have a more serious conversation. It is possible some major parties would prefer a more proportional system which doesn’t allow the Greens to dominate the crossbench.
The report also explores some of the issues that may come up if Victoria were to abolish its regions and elect MLCs statewide (as is done in the other three mainland state upper houses). This would undoubtedly raise concerns that regional areas would not be well represented in such a chamber. I have previously conducted research in New South Wales and Western Australia which backs up overseas research in suggesting that regional areas where voters care about local representation are well-represented, but the outer suburbs of big cities are under-represented.
The report quotes my research extensively, but also includes new research looking at the enrolled addresses of MLCs prior to the last election, and finds a similar pattern in Victoria. Despite MLCs notionally representing geographic regions, the inner city is over-represented and outer suburbs under-represented, while there is a broad spectrum of representation in the regions. It sounds like Victoria already has a similar pattern to what you’d expect if the regions were abolished.
Group voting tickets are a scourge on democracy and need to be abolished immediately. The fact that they currently allow some small parties to hold seats in parliament (not necessarily the ones who most deserve those seats) is not a reason to keep them around. A separate and more difficult conversation can then proceed about the ideal level of diversity and fragmentation would be ideal for the upper house. I don’t think it’s my place as a non-Victorian to specify what that model would be, but people should understand the consequences of deciding on a particular system.
If you want to hear more from me on this topic, I was on ABC Radio Melbourne’s Drive program yesterday afternoon. I published a shortened version of the interview on Instagram and TikTok.