It has been looking more and more likely that Tasmania would be going to an election in recent weeks, with the premier, Jeremy Rockliff, demanding new assurances from two ex-Liberal independents and threatening to go to an election if those demands weren’t met.
Those two independents didn’t show much interest in agreeing with the premier’s demands, and today this has led to the premier calling an election. It appears likely that the election will be held on the 23rd of March, but that hasn’t been confirmed.
I have now unlocked my guide to the Tasmanian election, which features results maps and tables, history and geography of each electorate. There is a comment section and a list of candidates which will be a work in progress until nominations close.
You can read the guide here, or use this map to click through to each of the five electorates:
The Tasmanian House of Assembly will be expanding from 25 to 35 seats at this election, with the five electorates each electing seven members, up from the five members each elected from 1998 until 2021.
Political science suggests we should expect an increased variety of parties receiving votes, and getting elected, and that seems to fit with the current circumstances. While Tasmania’s lower house was almost monopolised by Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens for most of the last forty years, we saw a number of strong independents in 2021, and this time there will possibly be more. The lower quota might also open the door for the Jacqui Lambie Network.