DXY won’t go away. AUD pumped and dumped. Still running on the spot. CNY up! Gold and oil yuck. AI metals don’t care. RIO going parabolic. EM wants ATH, Tough with DXY. Junk rejection is a warning. As yields jackknifed on a not dovish enough Fed. AI doesn’t care. The Fed is confused. In support
For months, I have argued that Australia’s job market is far weaker than it appears. Government-funded non-market jobs, particularly the expansion of the NDIS, have artificially propped up the job market. The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that government spending on “social protection”, which encompasses social security, welfare, and disability supports,
Wednesday’s CPI shocker, which saw annual trimmed mean inflation jump by 1.0% and 3.0% year-on-year, has shut the door on near-term interest rate cuts. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was looking for trimmed mean inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2025. To achieve this
Looks like everyone but the Fed is going to raise interest rates soon with the latest local inflation figures surging and cutting all chances of a cut from the RBA in its November meeting while it seems the BOJ is also likely to start raising rates going into 2026. Asian share markets are somewhat mixed
A recent examination of freedom of information (FOI) requests called into question the Albanese government’s commitment to transparency. The Centre for Public Integrity, an independent research institute, discovered that 24% of FOI requests were denied during Labor’s first term in office. In comparison, the proportion of applications denied fluctuated between 10% and 18% during the
The Economist does not like Donald Trump and is enjoying his polling. Last week Steve Bannon told our editors that Donald Trump would serve an unconstitutional third term. On Monday Mr Trump said, “I would love to do it—I have the best numbers ever.” We have an update on those numbers. They’re not the best
Perth’s housing market has experienced one of the nation’s biggest price booms since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, with dwelling values soaring by 102% since March 2020, according to PropTrack: Despite the surge in values, Perth’s housing market remains relatively affordable compared to the other major capital cities. According to Domain, Perth is the
In the debate surrounding immigration levels and population growth more broadly, the status quo is often described as normal, as if it were simply part of the natural order of things. Yet when comparing Australia’s population growth with that of the rest of the developed world, as IFM Investors Chief Economist Alex Joiner does below,
The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation spiked by 1.0% in Q3, well above the median economists’ forecast of a 0.8% rise. This took the annual trimmed mean CPI to 3.0% – the very top
TS Lombard gives us the company view of the new Five Year Plan. First, consensus expectations for 2026 GDP are too bearish. Xi Jinping has recommitted the CCP to doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 (just as we forecasted!) This entails a growth rate of ~4.6% yoy to reach that goal. While we do