Australians have suffered the deepest decline in real wages in recorded history. As of the June quarter of 2025, Australian real wages were tracking 6.0% below their June 2020 peak, at roughly the same level as December 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which contains
The US jobs market is being buffeted by a number of forces. reduced government spending; tarrif shocks to margins recouped through labour efficiencies; investment uncertainty owing to the orange madman; and AI. The BLS labour market data is still down, but Revelio has a decent correlation with the NFP (roughly 0.75%), and it just printed
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is below the current unemployment rate of 4.5%: Thus,
The Deloitte Investment Monitor for the September quarter is out. Releasing the latest edition of the quarterly Investment Monitor report, Deloitte Access Economics Partner and lead author, Stephen Smith, said: “The value of projects in the Investment Monitor database is just under $1.2 trillion in September, which is 7% higher than a year ago. “As
We’ve suddenly lurched from AI is unstoppable to a growth scare as jobs data weakens. The Market Ear. Wishing & hoping & thinking & praying AI mentions on earnings calls have exploded tenfold. Retail traders are back chasing the Mag7. Tech giants are borrowing record sums to fund data centers. For now, optimism is profit
The Grattan Institute was at it again this week, claiming that Australia could magically solve its housing shortage if governments only permitted three-storey buildings to be allowed on any residential block in any suburb. “The key problem is that state and territory land-use planning systems say ‘no’ to new housing by default, and ‘yes’ only
The ferrous jaws must close. CIAS output for the last ten days of October crashed 9.8% with steel profitability. CISA steel inventories fell even faster, down 11.8% to 14.63mt. Yet steel could still not get a bid. The MacroMicro series, the source of which is not disclosed, rose in the past week. MySteel data for
Weak job market signals kicked the DXY rally in the teeth. AUD fell anyway on growth worries. CNY up. Gold is trying to base. AI metals were mixed. Miners popped. EM too. Junk is holding. Bonds rallied after dodgy US jobs data. Stocks are blowing the froth off. Adding to a potential reversal in
The Australian right is tearing itself apart over net zero. This is so foolish, and the answer is so simple. In fact, the party took the policy to the last election. The only reason this fight is still happening is that the energy transition is failing on affordability. This is giving climate and energy sceptics
Overnight saw the fear around the AI bubble rise again as Wall Street cratered, but also some reality crept in as private job data indicated more job cuts than growth in the US economy as the bite from the government shutdown continues to be felt. Meanwhile the Bank of England held fire in its latest