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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 19, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Master Builders Australia (MBA) has used a submission to the Productivity Commission to argue that the federal government should provide tax incentives to builders who meet industry standards. The MBA argues that this would help boost competition, investment, and productivity in the sector, while also reducing the cost of building new homes. MBA CEO Denita

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 19, 2025 - 06:44 Source

On a threatening June evening, America’s army turned 250 and put on a show that revealed more than it intended.

Tanks and missile carriers rolled down Pennsylvania Avenue. Fighter jets flew over the Capitol dome. The President, visibly aged, saluted the display, a general on each side.

 

Stewart Sweeney

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Your Democracy Thursday, June 19, 2025 - 06:30 Source

One underrated voice in President Trump’s ear has broken his silence on the ongoing Israel-Iran war with a lengthy and powerful statement this morning that contains significant historical context. 

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MacroBusiness Thursday, June 19, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia’s unemployment rate is currently 4.1%, a historically low figure. The low unemployment rate has been driven by the boom in non-market (government-funded) roles, such as those related to the NDIS. The latest batch of data suggests that job growth has stalled, portending rising unemployment. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, last

The post Australia’s job boom turns bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 17:12 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 16:34 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 16:30 Source

The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as the TACO-in-Chief threatens to join in with bunker busters and demands unconditional surrender. The dealmaker in action! The USD remains weak against almost all the undollars while domestic Japanese data is keeping Yen weak after the BOJ taper plan announcement. The Australian dollar is hovering around

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 14:51 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 14:00 Source

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 2.25%, which has lowered mortgage rates by around 2% over the past year. The sharp reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank is partly due to the heavy decline in New Zealand home prices. According to Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro,

The post Housing crash forces Reserve Bank to cut rates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Usually, you want to buy a commodity when it is cheap and its producer is expensive. This is because low prices curb supply in commodities relatively quickly, so high mining valuations are usually a sign that the market is bottoming out. I have been expecting this kind of cycle to play out repeatedly with lithium

The post Thinking about lithium? Don’t appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 13:17 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 13:17 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 13:00 Source

If there is one thing that MAGA hates, it’s neocons. Those fanciful folk who thought they could lead the world to US nirvana at the point of an assault rifle. Pre-emption was their code, and regime change was their method. They tried in Afghanistan and failed. Then Iraq and failed slightly less. MAGA hates them

The post Trump is a military chicken, too appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 12:52 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Some nice new charts from IEEFA on the great gas gouge. It’s China that’s sucking the life out of the East Coast economy. Of course, China sends the gas back elaborately transformed into battleships. But somehow that doesn’t seem like a good exchange. There’s loads of uncontracted gas to deploy the Dutton reservation policy (and

The post It’s China that’s killing East Coast energy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Harry Ottley, economist at CBA, has written an excellent report on the Q1 2025 Labour Account from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which illustates the extraordinary growth in non-market (government-aligned) jobs. The following chart from Ottley shows that over the past decade, the growth in non-market jobs has trended higher: The non-market sector has

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:41 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The Market Ear on rising stress. You know things are stressed in geopolitics… …when the latest VIX pop looks tiny compared to oil “VIX”, the OVX. Source: LSEG Workspace Well bid downside Skew continues moving higher, trading at the highest levels since the early April panic. The gap between SDEX and VIX is very wide

The post Stock stress builds appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:05 Source

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared war on Australia’s poor productivity growth, which has slumped to developed-world lows. Chalmers has finally cottoned on to the fact that the economy’s stagnant productivity will not deliver higher living standards for ordinary Australians. In a speech to be delivered to the National Press Club in Canberra, The AFR reports

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:01 Source

Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped to –0.08% in May from 0.19% in April. The growth pulse has shown a significant deterioration since February, with May

The post Leading index sinks below the waves appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The ~$95 support line gave way yesterday. Goldman has more. Steel: The lingering and hindering steel production cut Orderbooks trend- The forward order books of most steel mills were down MoM in June, in line with seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggests current steel demand declined by 4.0% yoy for construction steel and down 6.0% yoy

The post Iron ore cracks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:20 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment survey suggested that Australians have turned bullish on housing. As illustrated below by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, house price expectations hit a cyclical high in May. The “time to buy a dwelling” sub-index has also bounced: The rebound in sentiment and house price expectations is understandable given that the Reserve

The post First home buyers are ready to pile in appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Numbers can be tricky. On the day of my 110th birthday, I'll be one day younger than John Tukey was on his.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:49 Source
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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:45 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is stirring as Trump turns neocon. AUD slumped on WWIII. Lead boots are rock solid. Oil is still not overly worried. Metals nervy. Big miners are in the bear market of a lifetime. EM stocks puke. Junk OK. The ‘ol safe haven is back. As stocks stumble. The whole damn world is short DXY

The post Australian dollar slumps on WWIII appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:15 Source

Last week I wrote about the dilemma of how to estimate a two-party-preferred vote in Bradfield. An actual two-party-preferred count has not been conducted between Liberal and Labor in that seat, and may not be conducted for some time. At the time I attempted to assess the likely two-party-preferred vote, but I expected that a more accurate calculation could be done once the distribution of preferences (including the three-candidate-preferred count) was published.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 08:32 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The past month has exposed the fallacy of the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years, which commenced on 1 July 2024. The federal government’s own advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), forecast that only 938,000 dwellings will be built nationwide by mid-2029, 262,000 below the target.

The post Australia is living in housing fantasy land appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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