Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary
The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, March 30, 2015 - 08:56 Source

This morning I made the mistake of reading the ramblings of Paul Sheehan. Now, because his lack of a coherent argument upset me so much, I thought I’d subject you to my ramblings on the subject of Paul Sheehan.

Ok, part of me thinks that he’d be better ignored. But another part of me worries that if we just ignore people writing in nationally distributed papers, the next thing you know, someone in the current government will read it and use it as evidence.

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Table Talk: Bob Ellis on Film and Theatre Monday, March 30, 2015 - 08:44 Source

A tax is only the cost of things.

‘With taxes,’ Frank Crean once said, ‘you buy civilisation.’

When interest rates go up, we wear it. When house prices go up, we cope with it. When rents go up, to even three thousand a week for a shoe shop in Avalon, we deal with it as best we can.

But a ‘tax rise’ we think is unbearable. This is ridiculous.

Taxes buy us our nurses, our ambulance drivers, our teachers, our Test cricketers. They give us, in acting schools, our Blanchetts, Gibsons, Kidmans, Luhrmans. Taxes win us Oscars.

They’re really worth paying. But how do we do that?

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 08:39 Source

Not much need to do a long Aussie piece today but I’ll note quickly that last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed shorts still being squeezed in the currency:   Short positioning is now way back to Oct 2014 levels, offering plenty of room to shift the market down. The Battler was hit hard Friday

The post Aussie weakens after bonfire of the shorts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, March 30, 2015 - 08:27 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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Poll Bludger Monday, March 30, 2015 - 08:17 Source

Wednesday night

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Table Talk: Bob Ellis on Film and Theatre Monday, March 30, 2015 - 07:43 Source

Lying, Hockey said he needed the States’ advice and consent to alter the GST. No, no, it is federal legislation, a law passed by the Federal Parliament, and needs no consent. He said it would not get through the Senate, but of course it would.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 07:20 Source

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Ross Gittins has written a spirited post today chastising economists for not questioning the wisdom of the once-in-a-century mining boom, which drove-up the exchange rate and has now guttered other trade-exposed industries: Now we’re in the final throes of the decade-long mining resources boom, it’s a good time to reflect

The post Gittins re-writes mining boom history appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Table Talk: Bob Ellis on Film and Theatre Monday, March 30, 2015 - 06:10 Source

For Palaszczuk to be replaced it is necessary that a vote of no confidence pass the chamber, and that it do so with the supporting votes of the two Katter MPs and the sacked Labor MP, Billy Gordon.

But if that vote of no confidence were passed, Palaszczuk might then advise an election, the second in five months, and that election would imperil the seats of the two Katter MPs and ensure that Billy, for certain, lost his.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 04:36 Source

Occasionally on this long journey, readers have accused me of an iron ore obsession. It’s true but the implied criticism is wrong. Iron ore and associated coal is 40% of Australia’s terms of trade, and although that will diminish as the crash proceeds and LNG rises, to not obsess over such a dependence as an economic

The post The iron ore crash is the Australian tipping point appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 04:32 Source

It seems that the eighth wonder of the world today is the mysterious strength of big iron share prices as their underpinning businesses implode. Let’s revisit RIO for instance. It’s iron ore margin is down now to 28% from a cycle peak of 300%: It’s spot projected profits are now 30% below consensus: Moreover, as

The post Big iron’s miraculous levitation will soon end appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 04:32 Source

Among the piles of media surrounding Fortescue Metals Group today one stands out. The AFR’s junket queen, Jenifer Hewitt, has delivered a worthwhile insight from her FMG sponsored trip to the Boao Forum on the weekend: Andrew Forrest was one of the few world business leaders to have meetings with China’s Xi Jinping at the Boao

The post Will Fortescue destroy big iron? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 04:31 Source

Here are the iron ore price charts for March 27, 2015:           Qingdao spot was a disaster crashing 4% but Tianjin benchmark wasn’t quite so terrible falling 1.3% to a marginal new low of $54.10 (full charts to come). These two track one another however so the gap will close. In

The post Daily iron ore price update (RIO thump) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 03:53 Source

The Brent oil price gave up much of the Yemen gains on Friday down 5% to $56.19. The war is not pretty but will not be regional and the US ‘s Camp Lemonnier is nicely positioned on the Mandab Strait should it become maritime. It’s a minor issue for the oil market. Bigger is the Iran deal and

The post Daily LNG price update (retracement) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 03:52 Source

From the FT: Most listed mainland homebuilders recorded a steady rise in revenue last year, but sharp declines in profit for many are a symptom of aggressive price-cutting designed to shift stock and generate much-needed cash in the debt-laden sector. …“With the downward pressure on the economy, the real estate industry will continue to undergo

The post Chinese developers build into bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 03:31 Source

From Bocom International Holdings Co. via FTAlphaville on the ye auld Chinese share surge: Currently, the yield gap shown in our chart [ showing earnings yield minus bond yield in China versus the Shanghai Comp] is plunging nearing its historical extreme. If bond yield can continue to fall to the 3% range due to slowdown and

The post This time it’s different for Chinese stocks! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 03:19 Source

By Leith van Onselen In his maiden Parliamentary speech, Family First senator, Bob Day (a former home builder), made the following comments in relation to Australia’s constipated land supply system [my emphasis]: The single most important factor affecting housing affordability has been land. In no other area of the economy has the interference of government

The post Choked land supply forces buyers to camp-out appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 01:15 Source

Yes, the bubble has gone global via Ellen: In case you’re wondering, De-Preston is an outer northern Melbourne suburb.  Good to see at least one Australian youth making hay from their parents lunacy.

The post Australian bubble makes vox pop debut on Ellen appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 01:10 Source

The national auction clearance rate delivered yet another mental result over the weekend, driven again by strong demand in Sydney and Melbourne. The preliminary national clearance rate was 77.5%, up marginally from last week’s 77.4%, with clearance rates still running at their strongest level in six years in trend terms: Sydney’s clearance rate fell 4.1%

The post Auction clearances going bananas appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 01:05 Source

Click to view Core Logic-RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 29 March 2015. This week’s report includes: Latest weekly dwelling value results; Auction results & clearance rates; Latest median house & unit prices; Average time on market & vendor discounts; Mortgage market activity;

The post RP Data weekly housing market update appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 30, 2015 - 01:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Oil Is Tumbling Again – Bloomberg Krugman: Unreal Keynesians – New York Times Krugman: Anti-Keynesian Delusions - New York Times Are Equities Overvalued? – Project Syndicate Reflexivity in the Stock Market - Pure Alpha Trade Biotech Stocks…and Benjamin Graham – Wall Street Journal North America: 47% of American households

The post Links 30 March 2015 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Peter G-W Monday, March 30, 2015 - 00:44 Source

This poem was written in April, 2014. It is in protest of civilian casualties that occur in any armed conflict. Irrespective of whether that conflict is otherwise entered into with the highest of objectives. Sadly. most modern conflicts do not often hold that moral high ground.   Peace Asleep, at last at peace, I dream of peace A lease Of life, not death. No pangs of hunger dull my children’s eyes; No silent drones scream […]

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North Coast Voices Monday, March 30, 2015 - 00:16 Source

With Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott announcing that his 2015-16 Budget would be a dull and boring one, it is reasonable to conclude that the over-the-top tax concessions for super funds and rich superannuates will remain unchanged.However, Abbott is endorsing the raising of fees paid by older low-income retirees and pensioners who want to stay at home for as long as possible in their later years.The Australian 25 March 2015: Older Australians will fail to get the help they need and commun

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North Coast Voices Monday, March 30, 2015 - 00:15 Source

On top of government-owned Essential Energy’s fight with local governments over proposed increases in public lighting costs to councils across New South Wales which could see public lighting bills rise in the Northern Rivers by up to 73 per cent in 2015-16 and, unease over the company’s plans with regard to its Nymboida water licence, comes news that supply in

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Duck Pond Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 22:16 Source

A taxi driver told me that forgetting is God’s blessing. I wondered how that works, particularly when at the time I had forgotten something I should have remembered.

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En Passant Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 21:43 Source

Mainstream media is abuzz with suggestions Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey will introduce a 0.5% tax on deposits into bank accounts with up to $250000 in them. This latter figure is the level up to which government underwrites and guarantees payment in the event of a run on the banks.

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Croakey Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 20:04 Source

Georgie Harman, CEO of beyondblue, writes: beyondblue recently released findings of an independent evaluation of the Stop. Think. Respect. ‘Invisible Discriminator’ campaign, which showed increased awareness of racial discrimination in people who...

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Cheeseburger Gothic Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 19:51 Source

Just when you thought too much Fanfest was barely enough, this arrives in the royal mail from Nowhere. (The post is notoriously unreliable from Nowhere).

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Antony Green's Election Blog Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 19:14 Source

Explanations on how post-election results are updated to the ABC election website.

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John Quiggin Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 18:46 Source

The first real Budget leak of the season has sprung, with indications that the government will introduce a tax on bank deposits, aimed at financing a deposit insurance fund. This was proposed by Labor in 2013, and attacked by Tony Abbott at the time. Judging by Andrew Leigh’s comments that “I don’t think we’re going to take any lessons on bipartisanship from Joe Hockey”, they haven’t forgotten.

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The Political Sword Sunday, March 29, 2015 - 18:30 Source

There have now been four Intergenerational Reports (IGR) from 2002  to 2015, issued by three treasurers: Costello (2),  Swan  and Hockey.

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