My last few booth maps have been focused on the non-classic races – the Greens in Melbourne, and the teals in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. But a big part of the story was Labor routing the Coalition in traditional urban marginal seats, particularly those on the edges of cities, with the ultimate symbol being Peter Dutton’s defeat in Dickson.
So today I’m looking at two groups of three LNP marginal seats – three on the northern outskirts of Brisbane, and three to the south. In each of these clusters, two of the three seats were lost to Labor, with the third seat holding on.
First, let’s look at the northern map.
The biggest swings happened in a corridor in Dickson, spreading into the western parts of Petrie. Swings were not as large on the Redcliffe peninsula, and were significantly smaller in Longman.
Interestingly there are quite a few booths in Caboolture where the LNP gained a primary vote swing while losing 2PP.
Dickson’s population is concentrated at the eastern end of the seat, along with a sparsely-populated west. In that east, Dutton only won a single election day booth, although I’m sure he did better on the early vote.
And then we can look at the south. Labor gained Bonner (the north-western seat) and Forde (the southern seat). They gained a swing but didn’t win Bowman.
The swings were much larger in Bonner than in neighbouring Bowman, and the difference in swing seems to be distinct at the seat border. In Forde, there were swings to Labor everywhere but seem to be bigger in the less dense south of the seat, while the denser suburbs in central Logan experienced smaller swings.