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Oz Blog News Commentary
Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 22:17 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 21:25 Source

US President Donald Trump will try to make good on his promise to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, but not at the cost of Kiev’s complete capitulation to Moscow, Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, has told RT. 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 20:59 Source

Energy prices have skyrocketed across the EU due to the disruption of cheap supplies from Russia, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has said.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, von der Leyen said that before 2022, the EU was receiving 45% of its gas and 50% of its coal from Russia, while Moscow was one of the bloc’s largest oil suppliers. “This energy appeared cheap, but it exposed us to blackmail,” she said. 

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The Tally Room Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 17:56 Source

A by-election is incoming for the NSW north coast state seat of Port Macquarie.

This seat had previously been a safe Nationals seat, although it had fallen into independent hands in the 2000s. This changed in 2000, when sitting MP Leslie Williams quit the party over a dispute between the Coalition parties over koala laws, and joined the Liberal Party.

Williams was re-elected as a Liberal in 2023, despite a strong challenge from the local mayor as the Nationals candidate.

With Williams now departing, this seat will be a test of which Coalition party is better suited to this sort of seat.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 16:42 Source

Israel's military chief has resigned, saying he recognised his responsibility for its failure on 7 October 2023, when the Palestinian armed group Hamas carried out a deadly attack on the country that triggered the Gaza war.

In a letter to the defence minister, Lt Gen Herzi Halevi admitted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had "failed in its mission to protect the citizens of Israel".

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 16:30 Source

A lot of regional internal news are moving Asian stock markets instead of the usual macro newsfront with mainland Chinese shares off sharply while traders await the latest BOJ decision as wage and labour concerns mount. The USD is still suffering from post-Trumpian volatility which had been centered around Yen although as other undollars continue

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 15:33 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 14:53 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 14:42 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 14:27 Source
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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 14:01 Source

I don't know what I was thinking. I should know better. But I made the mistake of checking the news this morning. It's been a couple of months since I've done that. I guess I was thinking that at some point I’d have to go back to writing columns about stuff happening in the world rather than stuff happening inside my head. But honestly, the stuff inside my head is nicer to think about than the stuff happening out in the world.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Always sobering and usually right…eventually. I agree with much of the below but don’t think we are there yet. Albert Edwards of Societe General bears it up!  Existing trends were pushed to new extremes in 2024. The idea of US equity market exceptionalism has taken such deep root that it’s impacting so much else,

The post Albert Edwards: The US bubble will burst appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 12:43 Source

 

It’s shock and awe time for Uncle Sam’s allies in the clown car who have mindlessly gone along for the ride. 

Not only is freshly re-minted US President Donald Trump reversing course at breakneck speed but, if his newly declared priorities are any indication, he seems to be headed, pedal to the metal, all the way back to the 80s. 

 

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 12:32 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Goldman with the note. President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. While we did not expect major policy pronouncements so soon following inauguration, Trump’s comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election. And while we viewed

The post Decoding Trump tariffs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Market Ear with more.  The power of the hammer candle Last Monday we pointed out the powerful hammer candle in SPX. We wrote: “Watch these type of candles post sell offs, as they can be the first signal of markets about to bounce. We saw a similar candle set up in early November.” Fast forward

The post Trump melt-up resumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 11:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set to improve in 2025 but remain lacklustre. Modest lifts in commodities, consumer, equities and dwelling approvals. While the growth signal is still not particularly strong, it has shown a clear improvement on the persistently negative, below-trend reads

The post Leading index lifts to crap appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 11:00 Source

CBA with the bad news. Despite our expectation for a lift in household expenditure to a more trend-like pace as the cash rate is normalised, there will be a natural handbrake on the pace of consumption growth. First, the positive impact on household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts will fade as no personal

The post Aussie consumers taxed to death appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 11:00 Source

They're continuing to search for a square with the same area as the circle, as efforts to construct one have run into difficulties.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Chinese steel rally is petering out, stalling iron ore. BHP is spewing iron ore. WAIO 128 Mt 1% | 145 Mt (100% basis) Production increased as a result of continued strong supply chain performance with record volumes delivered from the Central Pilbara hub (South Flank and Mining Area C) following the completion of the

The post Iron ore’s dividend slaughter appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 10:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 10:00 Source

With an official unemployment rate of only 4.0%, you would be forgiven for thinking that Australia’s labour market is booming and incredibly tight. However, new data from Seek, NAB, and Jobs & Skills Australia contradict this view. Seek’s employment report for December revealed that the number of job ads fell by 3.0% over the month,

The post Australia’s labour market is weaker than it appears appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY held its losses. AUD most of the gains. Chart of the day goes to lead boots. Commods took softer than expected tariff signals as less than expected stimulus. Miners grinded higher. EM too. Junk better. Yields unconvinced. Stocks march on. El Trumpo half upset the applecart by declaring 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

The post Australian dollar zombie lurches higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street returned from its long weekend and rallied across the board, not helped by more tariff talk although most of that looks like the typical hot air so far, with the USD still remaining in a weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs. European shares were flat as the lift in Euro

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 07:05 Source

I’ve already said all I plan to (for now) about what’s happening in the US. But if others want to discuss it, here’s an open thread.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 06:49 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 22, 2025 - 00:10 Source

The fearmongering over the exodus of property investors from Victoria has continued. Rental bond data from the Victorian Government shows that the state lost 24,726 rentals (3.6% of its stock) in the year ending 30 September 2024, the sharpest decline in rental bonds on record. Melbourne lost 23,108 rentals (4.2% of its stock) over the

The post First home buyers rejoice as property investors flee appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 21, 2025 - 17:00 Source

Asian stock markets are generally in a positive mood although mainland Chinese shares can’t find a bid as they worry about the incoming Washington Circus as tariff threats still linger like a full Depends pullup. Meanwhile FX volatility was centered around Yen again as other undollars continue to probe the USD while the Australian dollar

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, January 21, 2025 - 15:44 Source

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