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Articles from The Tally Room

Election day thread

May 18, 2019 - 08:00 -- Admin

Polls have just opened on the east coast in the 2019 Australian federal election. The handful of Australians who are yet to cast a pre-poll vote will be voting today in an election expected to be relatively close.

The latest polls have Labor in the lead, but not by much. The most recent Ipsos and Galaxy polls both give Labor 51% of the two-party-preferred vote, with Essential on 51.5%. Finally Newspoll has given a small boost to Labor, giving them 51.5% of the 2PP vote.

Federal 2019 – the race in regional Victoria

May 17, 2019 - 13:00 -- Admin

In this post I’m looking at the 13 electorates that I have defined as “regional Victoria”. This includes the major provincial cities of Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, as well as the seats of Casey and La Trobe on the eastern edge of Melbourne (which some commenters have argued should have been included in my Melbourne analysis).

This area includes four Labor seats, five Liberal seats, three Nationals seats and one independent seat.

Federal 2019 – the race in regional Queensland

May 15, 2019 - 12:30 -- Admin

There are ten seats in Queensland outside of the south-eastern corner, including central and northern Queensland plus a handful of seats further inland. The Liberal National Party holds eight of these seats, along with one Labor and one seat held by Katter’s Australian Party, but a number of these LNP seats are in play at this election.

There are five marginal seats I’m paying attention to in this post.

Federal 2019 – the race in southern NSW and the ACT

May 14, 2019 - 08:30 -- Admin

For my next regional focus I decided to split regional New South Wales into two areas: north and south. Today I’ll be looking at the seven seats in southern NSW, plus the three seats in the ACT.

Labor holds six of these seats, the Liberal Party holds three, and the seat of Riverina is held by Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Michael McCormack.

There are four seats that I think are worth paying attention to.

United Australia – where might their vote come from?

May 13, 2019 - 09:30 -- Admin

Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is running a big campaign in this federal election, with a big-budget national advertising campaign. It’s hard to know how well they will perform, but it’d be silly to ignore a party with such a big campaign.

In one sense the party is new, but it’s actually a successor to Palmer’s United Australia Party, who ran in the 2013 federal election. That campaign was similar, with a big-budget campaign spread over the whole country.