Independent economist Tony Alexander has written a detailed report on the New Zealand economy, which is experiencing a historic recession. Alexander argues that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts cannot offset New Zealand’s structurally poor economy and embedded low productivity growth. As a result, the recovery from the recession will inevitably be long and lacklustre.
Deutsche with an excellent wrap. 1. Free trade agreements (FTAs) are not safe. Canada and Mexico are part of the USMCA which was negotiated by Trump himself. It is clear that even countries with existing agreements with the US can be subject to tariffs. See here for our analysis on who is most vulnerable. 2. Right after
CoreLogic released its final auction results for last weekend, which were universally weak. As illustrated below, clearance rates were below 60% across all capital cities except Perth. Holding below the 60% mark for the sixth consecutive week, the combined capital city clearance rate was 57.3% last week, the same as the previous week (57.3%). Melbourne’s
Former Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil lamented that Australia’s migration system was too temporary and held the country back. “Today, really for the first time in our modern history, our uncapped, unplanned temporary program is the centrepiece and driver of our migration system. This simple fact is the source of huge problems”, she said. “In
The energy superidiot is destroying NSW. The future of a major NSW coal power station, Vales Point, faces fresh uncertainty after efforts to rush through a rule change on guaranteed financing were opposed by a rival coal operator, AGL Energy. The operator of Vales Point, Delta Electricity, in October said its current bank guarantee is
Australians are stuck in the most prolonged per capita recession on record, with per capita GDP falling six consecutive quarters and seven times in the previous eight quarters. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook report projected that the Australian economy will grow by only 1.2% in 2024, down from its April forecast
Victoria’s public debt is already the highest in the nation, with the state having the lowest credit rating. One of the drivers behind Victoria’s debt explosion is the state’s wasteful infrastructure binge, often involving giant projects that don’t stack up to rigorous analysis. Recently, Victoria has seen a cost overrun of $2.5 billion on the
The energy superidiot had better brace. “That’s the near-term dynamic, given this vulnerability of Europe, the lack of spare capacity, the loss of the residual Russian volumes currently going through Ukraine, and I should say, a colder than average start of the winter,” said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs. There
Michele Bullhawk appears to be a worker-hating psycho. All central banks care about inflation and the potential impact of their policies on the economy and the labour market. But there have been some important differences reflecting the different weights that central banks place on the two objectives. In Australia, interest rates did not reach the
Last month, CoreLogic identified 65 markets in Sydney and Melbourne where values were lower than their 2010s record highs. Despite the lower prices and improved affordability, buyers remain hesitant, which CoreLogic attributed to “the wrong kind of supply”. CoreLogic said these underperforming markets tended to be “tied to an over-supply of investment-grade units built in the 2010s”.