Sticky tariff induced inflation in the US overnight sent Wall Street lower as the expectation of rate cuts were diced as the latest PCE came in higher than expected. The Trump regime continues to bully Canada with the probability of 35% tariffs rising as no deal or framework before the August 1st “deadline” while Mexico just
You know it’s bad when major miners play second fiddle to the gas cartel. Via The AFR: Rio Tinto’s Jakob Stausholm delivered Labor a brutal parting warning that Australia’s energy prices are incompatible with its goal of manufacturing at home, and warned the economy risks being undercut by more competitive markets in the battle for
The 2023-24 Victorian Budget stated that it expects the federal government to provide an additional “matching contribution” of around $9.6 billion for the first stage of its Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) project. The State Budget also stated that the Victorian government plans to raise around $11.8 billion from so-called “value capture”, which would involve charging
As noted many times, the idiocy of the Australian economy often plays out in the singular goal of local fund managers. To be long either mining or banks at the right moment, so you can outperform your peers. That’s all there is to it in the Houses and Holes economy. Recently, we had some bold
US President Donald Trump has flagged an increase in his ‘liberation day’ baseline tariff to between 15% and 20%. Trump said countries that do not negotiate a special deal with the US will face an increase in the baseline tariff, which was originally set at 10%. “We are going to be setting a tariff, for
Who would want to be a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer in Australia? Not only are they dealing with intense competition from online behemoths like Amazon, Temu, and Shein, but they are still facing sagging sales growth. The latest retail trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlights the point, with retail sales volumes rising
The ferrous complex is in a stark reversal. The driver is a supply-side rationalisation of steel output, but it is vague. Goldman. On the macro policy stance, the Politburo required that macro policy should remain pro-growth, and its intensity should be strengthened at an appropriate time (“持续发力、适时加力”). Policymakers reiterated their pledge for implementing a “more
The Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP decreased by 0.2% over the quarter. This was the ninth fall in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The chart below compares the present decrease in real per capita GDP to previous episodes stretching back to the
Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session. Wall Street is the only light of hope for the bubble boys although we have
Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1). The “Trump Collar” helped to compress then collapse realized Volatility off the most extremely 100%ile levels April / May, as the market reconditioned to his reaction function (selling the call at the highs with emboldened tariff rhetoric, but long the put into