Peter Hartcher is freaking out. SMH. Trump gave himself the scope to deploy the militia and/or the military “where protests against these [federal] functions are occurring or are likely to occur”. Likely to occur? He once claimed to be a very stable genius, but now, apparently, he is also clairvoyant. In addition, says his order,
The machines are running out of volatility to bid. The Market Ear. Biggest volatility crash in history* “The 63% decline in the VIX over the last 9 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history.” (Bilello) The spring 2020 post-COVID crash was the largest one prior to this (at 58%).*note that we are talking about a
Chinese deflation marches on. In May 2025 , the national consumer price index fell by 0.1% year-on-year . Among them, urban prices remained unchanged, and rural prices fell by 0.4 % ; food prices fell by 0.4%, and non-food prices remained unchanged; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% , and service prices rose by 0.5% . — On average in May , the national consumer price index fell by 0.1% compared with the
The ferrous complex is nothing flash, that’s for sure. But tariffs are yet to show much in its steel exports. These are absorbing an extra 100mt of iron ore from the COVID lows. Iron ore imports are lacklustre but not collapsing. I expect more downside ahead as construction continues to shrink, but unless Beijing acts
Last week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP fell by 0.2%. This represented the ninth decline in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The following chart plots the current decline in real per capita GDP against prior episodes dating back to the beginning of
DXY can’t get off its knees. It’s not an AUD rocket so much as a tractor slogging it uphill. The big short is excellent support. Lead boots OK too. Machines are into oil. Metals no bueno. Fugly miners. EM thinks it can. Junk funk. Yields sticky. Stocks only go up. Nothing much has changed. The
The first session following the release of the latest monthly US jobs print is usually benign and that’s what we had across most risk markets overnight as speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do until the next NFP print calmed down, sending the USD slightly lower against the majors. Uncertainty over trade deals kept
Gerard Minack destroys Australia’s sick economy. Australia remains stuck in a macro rut. Low investment and fast population growth prevent capital deepening and productivity growth. The result is stagnant real incomes and falling per capita GDP. This malaise is also reflected in anaemic corporate earnings, but not in the equity market’s premium valuation. The RBA
All one really needs to be seen to be smart is Australia’s is to be loudest. That is the repuation at RBA press conferences of Warren Hogan, bullhawk and bullhorn. He has been Australia’s loudest and most persistent bullhawk. Until now. …at the heart of our productivity problem is a collapse in the efficiency of
The Albanese government has engaged in a full-court press of housing disinformation. Last week, Labor’s new Productivity Minister Andrew Leigh wrote the following spin in The AFR: “The federal government is doing our part. Through the National Housing Accord, we’re working with the states and territories to build 1.2 million homes over five years. We’ve