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Articles from MacroBusiness

China delivers new yawnulus

March 5, 2024 - 12:50 -- Admin

The Two Sessions of the NPC are underway right now. Yawn: China Likely to Face ‘Moderate Rise’ in CPI This Year China to Boost Economic Vitality, Prevent, Defuse Risks China to Ensure Quality Development, Greater Security China Plans 7.2% Boost in 2024 Defense Spending China Expects Urban Jobless Rate of 5.5% in 2024 China Plans

Dalio: Stocks not a bubble

March 5, 2024 - 12:30 -- Admin

Ray Dalio for ya. What the latest readings from my bubble gauge say about the market. As you know, I like to convert my intuitive thinking into indicators that I write down as decision rules (principles) that can be back tested and automated to put together with other principles and bets created the same way

Government spending, net exports, rescue Q4 GDP

March 5, 2024 - 12:01 -- Admin

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released balance of payments and government spending data, which feeds into Wednesday’s Q4 national accounts release. Both were positive for GDP, with the public sector adding just under 0.6ppts, mainly via inventories: Softening import demand has also boosted net exports, which are expected to contribute 0.65ppts to Q4

Victoria is ground zero in homelessness crisis

March 5, 2024 - 11:30 -- Admin

Due to record net overseas migration (NOM), Victoria (read Melbourne) has experienced the nation’s largest population expansion. Victoria’s population increased by 182,000 in the 2022-23 financial year, driven by NOM of 154,000: Victoria’s population has also ballooned by 2.1 million people (46%) this century, driven by a NOM of 1.3 million. This strong population growth

Global markets contonue to dump dirt

March 5, 2024 - 10:30 -- Admin

And why wouldn’t they! With China stuffed forever and the USD driven by an unfolding productivity megaboom, the outlook for dirt is terrible.  Total commodity investor AUM in February dragged out the weakly weak start to 2024 seen in January and leaves the commodity investor space once again facing a balancing act. Perhaps an even

Trump Tariffs 2.0 will sink China

March 5, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Capital Economics with the note. Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if he is elected again. And the factors that cushioned the impact last time – currency depreciation and

Macro Morning

March 5, 2024 - 09:00 -- Admin

Overnight saw some calm return to most markets without any major economic catalysts, as bond yields moved slightly higher on firming expectations of a rate cut from the Fed while the USD slipped only slightly, with gold zooming higher again. Wall Street lacked confidence to move higher while European stocks continued their rally while the