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Renew Economy Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:32 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:14 Source

Following the 2022 federal election, the Australian Greens declared themselves the “third force” in Australian politics after picking up 12.2% of the primary vote and winning four federal seats: During this election campaign, the Greens salivated at the prospect of forming a minority government with Labor whereby it could force its policy agenda. The outcome

The post A grim election for the Australian Greens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 5, 2025 - 07:00 Source

Goldman wraps a Q1 dud. Nominal retail sales rose 0.3%mom in March, broadly in line with expectations (GSe: +0.2%mom, BBG: 0.4%mom). That said, the details were softer, with ex-food sales broadly flat for a second consecutive month. The quarterly data were also weaker than expected, with volumes flat in 1Q2025 against expectations for an ongoing

The post RBA to cut as retail slumps again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 5, 2025 - 00:10 Source

Australian households are suffering their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts, released in March, revealed that real per capita household consumption fell for an eighth consecutive quarter. A steep decline in household incomes is behind the fall in consumption. As illustrated below, real per capita household consumption had declined by around 8% from its

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The Tally Room Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 19:00 Source

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of yesterday’s Australian federal election, which produced Labor’s best result since 1943. We talk about the close seats, how multi-party politics is transforming local electorate contests and what is likely to happen in the Senate.

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THE BLOT REPORT Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 17:47 Source

I have written several pieces about the Liberal Party branches being taken over by the religious in most of the Australian states. It seems to have started in Victoria1,2, and quickly spread to other states with Western Australia2,3, Queensland2  and South Australia4,5  having fallen to the religious. The only holdouts seem to be Tasmania6  and New South Wales7.

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Renew Economy Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 16:54 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 16:52 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 14:51 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 14:48 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 14:40 Source
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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 12:01 Source

Many were hoping for a minority government moderated by the Senate. It made perfect sense. Two mainstream sides of politics have served up the same gruel for 15 years.  The gruel is nasty, and the punters don’t like it. Small changes moderated by a batch of independents are a least-worst option. For a nation that

The post How Labor can make Australia better appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 11:30 Source

There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor. American freight route costs have pancaked. But freight volumes are still fine. Perhaps as dumping elsewhere begins. Ahead is a problem. With some offset already accelerating on the ground. It’s not going to be a banner year for China.

The post Trade shock yet to hit China appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 10:37 Source

DXY is making hard work of it. AUD is ripping your face off now. Lead boots will be lead boots. Oil is about to crater. I will buy a deeper gold pullback. Metals have no interest in growth. Miners yuck. EM gapped into madness. Junmk says no bueno. Treasuries are confused. Stocks are on fire

The post Australian dollar hits the afterburners appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 08:42 Source

The federal election has delivered a stomping Labor victory with the party winning 85 seats and a comfortable majority, with 19 seats still in doubt. The Coalition was routed, scoring one of its lowest primary votes on record. Leader Peter Dutton lost his seat (good riddance), alongside senior figures like Michael Sukkar. Shadow immigration minister

The post Greens collateral damage in election rout appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 04:48 Source

Good morning, I have been writing this blog post after getting home to wrap my own head around the scale of the count. I expect I will have some issues with the website’s accessibility today, so some of this may also be posted over on Tally Room in Exile, my backup blog.

Firstly, it appears that there has been a significant increase in the number of contests involving minor parties and independents, but it will be some time before we can say how many seats are now non-classic.

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The Tally Room Saturday, May 3, 2025 - 18:00 Source

Polls have just closed on the east coast.

You can discuss the election results here tonight.

I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.

I suspect the website may struggle with traffic tonight, but I am just going to let it cope as best it can.

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THE BLOT REPORT Saturday, May 3, 2025 - 16:32 Source

It is a beautiful, cool, sunny, Saturday morning in Canberra, and my partner and I just walked the few hundred metres to the local school hall to vote in the federal election, both for the House of Representatives and for half of the Senate. Federal and state elections are always held on Saturdays in Australia and voting is compulsory. The House of Representatives is voted on in its entirety every 3 years while the Senate is voted on every 6 years, with half of them facing the voters at the same time as the House of Representatives does.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 3, 2025 - 10:33 Source

Australians are about to be jilted. There is a very widespread disenchantment and disillusionment with politics, the media, any given person being reported on or even doing the reporting, and a pervasive sense of ‘this country is increasingly stuffed’ on the streets. The issues at the core of that are issues which both mainstream sides

The post Everyday Australians the biggest election losers appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Saturday, May 3, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Polls have just opened on the east coast in today’s federal election.

I won’t be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.

I’ll put up another open thread at 6pm. I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets are having a solid finish to the trading week while recent news that the Chinese may actually be open to talking about tariffs with the US, plus the Canadian auto industry seemingly getting another exemption on parts, with futures indicating an even better start in Europe. All eyes will be on the latest

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 15:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 15:00 Source

I recently attended a forum on Climate and Economics in my local area with some very interesting topics discussed, ranging from the LNP’s nuclear power ideas to the dangers of not meeting Net Zero by 2050 and, of course, the upcoming Federal Election. Here are some snippets from the forum. The full transcript and audio

The post Australia’s energy future is at stake in this election appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 14:52 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 14:44 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 14:21 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 14:18 Source

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Renew Economy Friday, May 2, 2025 - 14:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 13:30 Source

This week’s CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed that the post-pandemic inflation surge is firmly in the rearview mirror. Australia’s policy-relevant underlying inflation fell to 2.9% in Q1 2025, to be tracked within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. The pace of disinflation was also

The post The post-pandemic inflation surge is over appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 2, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The federal election campaign has seen both sides promise to use the federal budget to deliver another house price boom. Labor has undertaken to establish a state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme by allowing all first-time home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% down payment, with the government (taxpayers) guaranteeing 15% of the borrowers’

The post House price crash “a thing of beauty” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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